Chemical Loss of Ozone in the Arctic Polar Vortex in the Winter of 1991-1992 (original) (raw)

The H, O trend is estimated by calculating the difference between the average H20 with the H, O residual estimated in K. Kelly et a/. [Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 465 (1989)], and scaling with the CH, trend. The H20 difference is a result of CH, oxidation in the stratosphere. 17. The HNO, trend is estimated by assuming that the NO, trend is the same as the N, O trend (0 2%) and using the scaling of NO, (10). 18. Projected injections of NO, and H, O are taken from scenario F in M. Prather et a/. [NASA Ref. Publ. 1272 (1992)l. In this report, NO is estimated to increase 4 ppbv and H, O will rncrease by about 1 ppmv, for an emission index of 15 and a Mach number 3.2. 19. T. Peter et a/. [Geophys. Res. Lett. 18, 1465 (1991)l calculated a doubling of the PSC probability for future fleets of stratospheric aircraft (a 1.7 K increase in the 50-hPa NAT saturation temperature using a two-dimensional chemistry model). 20. We thank all the partic~pants in the AASE II mission.

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