The Effects of Climatic Variations on Agriculture: An Analysis of Brazilian Food Exports (original) (raw)

World Sustainability Series, 2019

Abstract

Studies on climate change’s impact on agricultural production including soybean and corn crops in Brazil require subnational analysis due to the large expanse of the country and its diverse climate, geographies, biomes and availability of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to understand the effects of climatic variations on Brazilian agriculture and to understand how the expansion of land dedicated to crop production is influenced by production for export. Accordingly, four hypotheses were created and tested. The descriptive analysis of the data showed that soybean production for exportation is heavily concentrated in the last four months of the year, which indicates the seasonality of its production. The cluster analysis of all the variables (climate and soybean and corn production) shows that there is no relationship between climate variables and grain production variables, since both sets of elements are in separate groups. The non-relationship of climate variables and grain production are also confirmed when the data are analyzed by the principal components model, either by the Kaiser criterion or by the scree plot criterion. In this case, it is possible that crop yields are influenced by irrigation technologies, which reduces the dependence on rainfall patterns, but this data was not considered in this study.

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