At the End of the Day, Bashar al-Assad (original) (raw)

Bashar al-Assad and Israel: Back to the Past

Strategic Assessment,, 2019

The coming end to the civil war in Syria and the victory for Bashar al-Assad raises the question of which Syrian president Israel will now face. The likely answer is that it will be the "old, familiar" Bashar, a ruler who sticks to the status quo, to what is tried and true, including-and perhaps especially-with respect to his approach toward Israel. This seemingly returns Israel to the point it was at with respect to Bashar before the outbreak of the war in Syria in the spring of 2011. Israel remains positioned against a defiant ruler who alongside his continued dependence on Russia, his most important patron and ally, works to strengthen relations with Iran and with Hezbollah, but who also exercises restraint and maintains quiet along the border and is even willing to engage in peace negotiations with Israel.

The United States and Israel vs the Syria of Bashar al Assad Challenges Dilemmas and Options

Strategic Assessment, 2020

The crisis that began in March 2011 with the outbreak of the revolt against Bashar al-Assad’s regime is now in its tenth year. The intensity and complexity of the crisis derive to a great extent from the fact that almost from the start it has been conducted at three levels: domestic, regional, and international. The United States and Israel are among the countries involved in the crisis; they are influenced by it and affect how it unfolds. The article is also available here: https://bit.ly/37srkBc

Bashar al-Assad and the Greater Arab World

Yet as the Syrian crisis enters a new phase and moves closer to the “post-conflict” period, the question of Assad’s legitimacy and the extent to which Damascus has become subservient to Tehran will continue to complicate the prospects for Syria returning to the Arab League. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/bashar-al-assad-and-the-greater-arab-world

Israel's Policy on the Syrian Civil War: Risks and Opportunities

Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, 2017

International Center for Counter Terrorism at IDC Herzliya. He is the co-founder of CyberDissidents.org, a network of bloggers from the Middle East that focuses on freedom of expression and the promotion of dialogue in the region. His recent book, Expat-ing Democracy (2016), deals with the influence of expat communities on democracy discourse in the Middle East. The war in Syria, which to date has taken hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced almost half the country's population, seems to be nearing an end. The Syrian tragedy, which drew in additional actors from throughout the Middle East and the world-paid militias, "volunteers," and foreign armies-at unprecedented speed, seems to be stabilizing. This has created a new status quo, and will enable a smaller circle to wield control over the state still known as Syria when the smoke of battle finally clears. In August 2017, the UN Migration Agency (IOM) announced that over 600,000 displaced persons, some 10 percent of the total number of refugees, had already returned to their homes in Syria, many to the city of Aleppo, which, until several months earlier, had symbolized the battles between the weakened rebel camp and the regime forces. 1 Syrian tractors are already clearing the way for new roads, and Russian cranes are building a new port terminal, while the Iranians have started constructing a modern "medical city" near Damascus. 2 The year 2017 is also ending with Syria's conquest (aided by Hizbullah) of the village of Beit Jann, one of the more significant pockets of resistance supported by Israel. These new developments, including the entrenchment of Russian and Iranian forces in Syria, are also important for Israel and its policy in Syria in general, and in southern Syria in particular. Israel's strategy may have to be significantly modified, given the magnitude of the changes on the other side of the border. Israeli policy, which was initially based on the idea of Israel as a "passive onlooker" and then as a "good neighbor," reflected in much more active intervention 1

Preliminary Assessemnt on Syria

The center of Leadership and Diplomacy, 2024

What we have witnessed in the past few days was and still is a historic event by all standards, as the Assad family regime in Syria has fallen after 54 years of oppression, injustice, torture and brutality against the Syrian people and oppositions. This regime was the only one in the Arab world-and indeed the region- that displaced half of its population (over 12 million Syrians) and prevented their return, marking the largest displacement in modern history. Events in Syria are accelerating on a daily basis, which requires an analysis to assess the current situation and to anticipate the near-term future, given the complexity of the scene, the many internal and external players involved, and the ambiguity of unfolding events. This assessment will address the external players, the internal dynamics, the causes of this sudden shift, the relationship with the Palestinian issue, and short-term future expectations.

Syria: Time for Maturity

The Administration’s strategy for defeating ISIS has failed so far because a secondary objective – a priori insistence that “Assad must go” – has hampered the quest for a political solution, with disastrous results. The staying power of Bashar is far greater than has been claimed by successive U.S. policymakers. The secret of its resilience is in the fact that no “moderate opposition” exists and that millions of Syrians are horrified by the alternative.

The Syrian Crisis: A Plan of Action

2013

The Assad dictatorship in Syria, backed by Iran and Hezbollah, is now regionalizing the Syrian crisis, while simultaneously carving out a coastal rump state. Sectarian fighter-terrorists from Hezbollah have emerged as the regime's most reliable foot soldiers, and are being deployed across Syria. In a desperate bid to advance its regional power, Iran is also deploying thousands of other sectarian fighters inside Syria. Assad is gaining due to this heavy foreign support. The fall of Khalidiya in central Homs and the Kurds’ plans for an autonomous region increase the risk that the country will dissolve into three hostile enclaves. Assad will not negotiate in good faith until his calculus is changed. To blunt Assad-Hezbollah advances and prod Assad to the negotiating table, a three-part comprehensive strategy is needed. First, the United States should exert military pressure on Assad, by arming vetted opposition elements in the Free Syrian Army and eliminating Assad’s air power monopoly. Second, the U.S. should exert political pressure to isolate and undermine the Assad regime. Third, the U.S. should promote a clear alternative to Assad by supporting civilian governance efforts.