A multi-source global-local model for epidemic management (original) (raw)

The Effective Reproduction Number Rt provides essential information for the management of an epidemic/pandemic. Projecting Rt into the future could further assist in the management process. This article proposes a methodology based on exposure scenarios to perform such a procedure. The method utilizes a compartmental model and its adequate parametrization; a way to determine suitable parameters for this model in México’s case is detailed. In conjunction with the compartmental model, the projection of Rt permits estimating unobserved variables, such as the size of the asymptomatic population, and projecting into the future other relevant variables, like the active hospitalizations, using scenarios. The uses of the proposed methodologies are exemplified by analyzing the pandemic in a Mexican state; the main quantities derived from the compartmental model, such as the active and total cases, are included in the analysis. This article also presents a national summary based on the method...