Russian FDI in Central and Eastern European countries. Opportunities and threats (original) (raw)

2006, IWE Working Papers, No. 168

Abstract

Russian outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has been showing a very promising performance in recent years. The Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have become a key destination, but this is often viewed with suspicion by host countries. The paper begins with the quantity and geographical distribution of Russian capital investment, pointing to differences between estimates and official OFDI data reported on a balance-of-payments basis by the Central Bank of Russia, which are frequently revised. In some years, OFDI has exceeded the FDI inflows into Russia, which is very unusual for an ex-communist transformation country. It is also paradoxical that FDI from relatively poor and less developed Russia should be supporting the economies of relatively more developed countries. When the destinations are examined, it emerges that some of the FDI is round-tripping and trans-shipping, as a significant proportion of the investment is conducted indirectly, through third economies. The paper investigates the companies behind the transactions and their various motivesfor expanding abroad. The bulk of the OFDI has been coming from natural resource-based companies, Russia’s largest exporters, earning well from high world market prices for energy sources and raw materials. Having presented the Russian FDI position in the CEE region through the statistics of the host countries, the paper sets out to describe the main Russian-origin investments and trends in selected CEE countries. Special attention is paid to the strategic investments in the gas and oil industries and the alarming dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil. It is stressed that Russian FDI is managed by mature strategies. The paper also looks at the usually negative attitude taken in ex-socialist CEE countries to companies with Russian capital. The reasons for resistance include memories of earlier Soviet policies, fear of losing control over the commanding heights of the economy, and so-called oil and gas diplomacy, as well as cultural, productivity and efficiency issues. Five case studies are cited to shed light on the probable acquisition methods. Finally, attention is turned to the prospects for Russian FDI in the CEE countries and to some actual privatization opportunities.

Figures (16)

End-period stock of Russian FDI, UsD, % Notes. UNCTAD uses CBR data. The CEE countries were defined up to 2004 as the following 19: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. For 2005, UNCTAD uses a fresh categorization. The new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) were reclassified as EU (hence developed economies), and the rest as South-East Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ma- cedonia, Romania, and Serbia and Montenegro) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Ar- menia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan — formerly in a Cen- tral Asia group under developing countries. WIR 2005, p. 6) Despite this reclassification, the CEE-related proportions in this paper have been recalculated so as not to break the time series. ; UNCTAD FDI database.

End-period stock of Russian FDI, UsD, % Notes. UNCTAD uses CBR data. The CEE countries were defined up to 2004 as the following 19: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. For 2005, UNCTAD uses a fresh categorization. The new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) were reclassified as EU (hence developed economies), and the rest as South-East Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ma- cedonia, Romania, and Serbia and Montenegro) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Ar- menia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan — formerly in a Cen- tral Asia group under developing countries. WIR 2005, p. 6) Despite this reclassification, the CEE-related proportions in this paper have been recalculated so as not to break the time series. ; UNCTAD FDI database.

Source: Kalotay 2003, 11-13, and own calcula~ tions. Main destinations of the Russian FDI out-~ flows, 1995-9 The top 10 destinations for OFDI projects from Russia, 2002-3, %

Source: Kalotay 2003, 11-13, and own calcula~ tions. Main destinations of the Russian FDI out-~ flows, 1995-9 The top 10 destinations for OFDI projects from Russia, 2002-3, %

Stock of inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) from Russia in the CEE countries, Malta and Cyprus

Stock of inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) from Russia in the CEE countries, Malta and Cyprus

Source. Ernst&Young 2004. Cross-border M&A deals by Russian firms announced by top five CEE destination countries, 2002 and 2003

Source. Ernst&Young 2004. Cross-border M&A deals by Russian firms announced by top five CEE destination countries, 2002 and 2003

Top 10 non-financial TNCs based in Russia, ranked by foreign assets, excluding shipping companies

Top 10 non-financial TNCs based in Russia, ranked by foreign assets, excluding shipping companies

Notes. The transnationality index (TNI) is calculated as an average of three ratios: foreign assets/total assets, foreign sales/total sales and foreign employment/total employment. Foreign assets (USD millions) appear in brackets. Lognn1 Anta Russian firms among the top 25 non-financial TNCs based in CEE countries, ranked by foreign assets Source. WIR 2004, 317, WIR 2003, 191, WIR 2002, 112, WIR 2001, 115.

Notes. The transnationality index (TNI) is calculated as an average of three ratios: foreign assets/total assets, foreign sales/total sales and foreign employment/total employment. Foreign assets (USD millions) appear in brackets. Lognn1 Anta Russian firms among the top 25 non-financial TNCs based in CEE countries, ranked by foreign assets Source. WIR 2004, 317, WIR 2003, 191, WIR 2002, 112, WIR 2001, 115.

Source. Gagilas 2002.

Source. Gagilas 2002.

Top 10 non-financial TNCs from SE Europe and the CIS, ranked by foreign assets in 2003

Top 10 non-financial TNCs from SE Europe and the CIS, ranked by foreign assets in 2003

Major gas-related investments in CEE countries yy Russians and dependence on the Russian natural ga Source. PAIIZ (Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency), Gazprom 2005a, b; AK&M Online News 2005, Energiainfo.hu (various articles); The Moscow Times 2005g; company websites.

Major gas-related investments in CEE countries yy Russians and dependence on the Russian natural ga Source. PAIIZ (Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency), Gazprom 2005a, b; AK&M Online News 2005, Energiainfo.hu (various articles); The Moscow Times 2005g; company websites.

Major CEE oil-related investments by Russians and national dependence on Russian crude oil

Major CEE oil-related investments by Russians and national dependence on Russian crude oil

Source. Portfolio.hu (2005d). Refining capacity of oil companies in the region, million t per year

Source. Portfolio.hu (2005d). Refining capacity of oil companies in the region, million t per year

Sources. External and intra-European Union trade. Monthly statistics. Eurostat, European Commission 2000/12, 76; 2001/12, 76; 2002/12, 76; 2003/12, 79; 2004/7, 79.

Sources. External and intra-European Union trade. Monthly statistics. Eurostat, European Commission 2000/12, 76; 2001/12, 76; 2002/12, 76; 2003/12, 79; 2004/7, 79.

Notes. According to UNCTAD definitions, this is recorded at the time of deal closure, but M & A values are not necessarily paid out in a single year. The data cover deals involving acquisition of an equity stake of more than 10 per cent. They include purchases via domestic and international capital markets, which should not be considered as FDI flows. Moreover, M & A data are expressed as the total trans~ action amount of particular deals and not as differences between gross acquisitions and divestment abroad by firms from a particular country (here Russia). FDI flows are recorded on a net basis in a particular year. (See WIR 2005, pp. 301-2.)

Notes. According to UNCTAD definitions, this is recorded at the time of deal closure, but M & A values are not necessarily paid out in a single year. The data cover deals involving acquisition of an equity stake of more than 10 per cent. They include purchases via domestic and international capital markets, which should not be considered as FDI flows. Moreover, M & A data are expressed as the total trans~ action amount of particular deals and not as differences between gross acquisitions and divestment abroad by firms from a particular country (here Russia). FDI flows are recorded on a net basis in a particular year. (See WIR 2005, pp. 301-2.)

Other major investments by Russians in CEE countries

Other major investments by Russians in CEE countries

On September 12, 2005, the Czech Anti-Monopoly Office approved the sale of the Czech Republic’s stake in Vitkovice Steel. The Moscow Times 2005k. — * On September 12, 2005, the Czech Anti-Monopoly Office approved the sale of the Czech Republic’s stake in Vitkovice Steel. The Moscow Times 2005k. During 2001-2, OMZ acquired a 66 per cent interest in S.C. UPET SA, a Targoviste-based facility specializing in manufacturing of mobile rings, components for offshore rigs and metal valves. In May 2004, the company (as part of the oil and gas equipment and shipbuilding business segments) was sold to certain members of the OMZ’s management. OMZ 2005, 22 and 48. | Through Germany-based Sinara Handel GmbH, a trading company of TMK. 4 Through Swiss-based Mechel Trading AG. ARIS (web).

On September 12, 2005, the Czech Anti-Monopoly Office approved the sale of the Czech Republic’s stake in Vitkovice Steel. The Moscow Times 2005k. — * On September 12, 2005, the Czech Anti-Monopoly Office approved the sale of the Czech Republic’s stake in Vitkovice Steel. The Moscow Times 2005k. During 2001-2, OMZ acquired a 66 per cent interest in S.C. UPET SA, a Targoviste-based facility specializing in manufacturing of mobile rings, components for offshore rigs and metal valves. In May 2004, the company (as part of the oil and gas equipment and shipbuilding business segments) was sold to certain members of the OMZ’s management. OMZ 2005, 22 and 48. | Through Germany-based Sinara Handel GmbH, a trading company of TMK. 4 Through Swiss-based Mechel Trading AG. ARIS (web).

Key takeaways

sparkles

AI

  1. Russian outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in CEE countries raises significant geopolitical concerns.
  2. OFDI from Russia exceeded $100 billion in 2004, highlighting its growing global economic influence.
  3. Natural resource companies dominate Russian OFDI, driven by high energy prices and market-seeking motives.
  4. Host countries exhibit resistance to Russian investment due to historical and economic fears.
  5. Privatization opportunities in Romania and Bulgaria present strategic entry points for Russian firms.

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