Random modeling of population dynamics with uncertainty (original) (raw)

Obesity is growing at an important rate in developed and developing countries and it is becoming a serious disease not only from the individual health point of view but also from the public socioeconomic one. In this paper it is studied the effect of uncertainty in the dynamics behavior of the overweight and obesity childhood populations. Since initial conditions and parameters appearing in a deterministic mathematical model of obesity population are subject to some degree of uncertainty, randomness in the differential equations are introduced in the initial conditions and in the most relevant parameter of the deterministic model. Additionally, in this work stochastic and random ordinary differential equations were used to study the randomness effect in the deterministic mathematical model of obesity population. Monte Carlo simulations are performed assuming different distributions for the initial conditions and parameters of the model. Furthermore, confidence intervals and expected solutions of the random models are also obtained. To verify the consistence of the method, results are compared against numerical solutions of the deterministic mathematical model.