Reconstructing regional population fluctuations in the European Neolithic using radiocarbon dates: a new case-study using an improved method (original) (raw)
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Abstract In a previous study we presented a new method that used summed probability distributions (SPD) of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for population levels, and Monte-Carlo simulation to test the significance of the observed fluctuations in the context of uncertainty in the calibration curve and archaeological sampling. The method allowed us to identify periods of significant short-term population change, caveated with the fact that around 5% of these periods were false positives. In this study we present an improvement to the method by applying a criterion to remove these false positives from both the simulated and observed distributions, resulting in a substantial improvement to both its sensitivity and specificity. We also demonstrate that the method is extremely robust in the face of small sample sizes. Finally we apply this improved method to radiocarbon datasets from 12 European regions, covering the period 8000 to 4000 BP. As in our previous study, the results reveal a boom-bust pattern for most regions, with population levels rising rapidly after the local arrival of farming, followed by a crash to levels much lower than the peak. The prevalence of this phenomenon, combined with the dissimilarity and lack of synchronicity in the general shapes of the regional SPDs, supports the hypothesis of endogenous causes.
PLoS One
Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD) from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture.
The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neo-lithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.
Neolithic population and summed probability distribution of 14C-dates
Journal of Archaeological Science, 2015
This paper assesses the use of radiocarbon dates as a population proxy during the north European Mesolithic–Neolithic transition. By addressing data from the Jutland peninsula, it is shown that the sum probability distributions are influenced by three human-inflicted biases. Two of these – changed ritual behaviour and changes of subsistence strategies – refer to past human activity, while the third consists of modern research strategies. The analysis questions the validity of sum probability distributions as a population proxy in a period where a society experiences a transformation process.
Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, 2023
Hunter-gatherer populations in northwest Europe were variably affected by Late Glacial and Early Holocene climate fluctuations and their effects on sea level and the environment. We investigate the impact of these fluctuations with a dates-as-data approach to a large radiocarbon dataset. Radiocarbon dates are used as a proxy for past human activity, the intensity, nature and archaeological visibility of which will indirectly influence date density. The significance of changes is explored using Kernel Density Estimates and model tested Summed Probability Distributions. Whereas previous studies have focused on smaller highly curated datasets to minimise research and preservation biases, our more inclusive approach maximises sample size, which is essential for these methods to reliably reflect underlying patterns. To deal with biases, we test subsets of the dataset that are potentially affected by differences in formation processes. The summed radiocarbon dataset follows the general fluctuations of climate conditions, showing increased activity in temperate periods and decreased activity during cold phases. Our results indicate significant periods of interest where the data deviates positively or negatively from our models. Notably we observe the impact of the Younger Dryas, Preboreal Oscillation and the 8.2 ka event on the density of hunter-gatherer activity. Additionally we see peaks in activity in our dataset during the Early and Late Boreal. Permutation testing of different regions in the research area shows these patterns are geographically differentiated. Our exploration of biasing factors indicates that we should be careful to interpret the abovementioned patterns, as different sampling processes and national policies may lie at the basis of several patterns. Furthermore, calibration artefacts may also cause issues at key parts of the timeline. Dates-as-data approaches require an understanding of the archaeology, the timing of external events, the impact of the calibration curve and how biases inherent to the dataset and research area may have influenced the formation of patterns in the result.
Journal of Archaeological Science, 2019
Archaeologists now routinely use summed radiocarbon dates as a measure of past population size, yet few have coupled these measures to theoretical expectations about social organization. To help move the 'dates as data' approach from description to explanation, this paper proposes a new integrative theory and method for quantitative analyses of radiocarbon summed probability distributions (SPDs) in space. We present this new approach to 'SPDs in space' with a case study of 3571 geo-referenced radiocarbon dates from Wyoming, USA. We develop a SPD for the Holocene in Wyoming, then analyze the spatial distribution of the SPD as a function of time using a standard nearest-neighbor statistic. We compare population growth and decline throughout the Holocene with expectations for different Ideal Distribution Models from population ecology that predict the relationship between habitat quality and population density. Results suggest that populations in Wyoming were initially clustered and then became increasingly dispersed through the course of the Holocene. These results suggest that Allee-like benefits to aggregation, rather than ideal free-driven dispersion patterns, explain settlement decisions in response to growing populations. Our approach is a first step in constructing a method and theory for describing relationships between social organization and population growth trends derived from archaeological radiocarbon time-series.