Explaining Sudden Incumbent losses: Evidence from Ghana’s Election (original) (raw)
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Incumbency and Presidential Elections in Ghana: A Case Study of the Fourth Republic
Politics in many African countries has been characterized by perpetual incumbency in leadership. This was the case in the early independence decades when many presidents held power indefinitely. Incumbency has brought very interesting dynamics and dilemmas to Ghana’s democratic history. Like in most developing democracies, critics have claimed that entrenched politicians and social elites control the political process. Incumbency impact on candidate’s electoral prospects has yielded two sets of empirical facts. First, incumbents enjoy significant advantages compared to non-incumbents. In terms of re-election, incumbents in national congressional elections are fifty percent more likely than non-incumbents to be re-elected (Lee, 2001). Second, the margin of victory of incumbents has increased significantly over time (Alford and Hibbing, 1989; Collie, 1981; Garand and Gross, 1984). The notable exception is Miguel and Zaidi’s (2003) investigation of Ghana’s elections which they find no evidence to support incumbency advantage. The thrust of this paper is to examine the dynamics and dilemmas of presidential incumbency in the Fourth Republic and will rely on secondary sources for the analysis. Section Two will focus on theoretical issues, three and four on data analysis and emerging issues/conclusion respectively.
Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 2022
This paper interrogates the fortunes of National Democratic Congress (NDC), and its Presidential Candidate in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections in Ghana. The analysis is situated within the context of structural and political-economic framework of analysis. The paper employed an explanatory sequential mixed methods design. The information leading to the achievement of the study objectives was gathered through data collection methods such as secondary data sources, interview guided questionnaire and key informant interviews. Drawing on multiple strands of data, multiple regression and interpretive techniques of analysis, the results show that several factors undergirded NDC's "sweet victory and painful defeat." Whereas ethnicity was largely responsible for NDC's victory in 2012, a multiplicity of factors accounted for its defeat in 2016. This paper argues that beyond the above factors, the "politics of the COVID-19" played a critical role in the defeat of the NDC in the 2020 presidential elections in Ghana.
GHANA’S 2016 ELECTIONS: An Overview of Selected Relevant Background Themes
Journal of African Elections, 2020
Seven successive elections have been held in Ghana since 1992, most recently in 2016 when the country made a fourth attempt to embrace constitutional rule. A burgeoning literature provides explanations for the outcome of the 2016 election, which saw the defeat of the erstwhile incumbent National Democratic Congress and a landslide victory for the New Patriotic Party. Yet, little attention has been given to the various undercurrents, events, and significant background dynamics prior to the elections on 7 December. This research therefore provides a partially analytical but largely descriptive presentation of selected relevant issues that contributed to the build-up to the 2016 elections. The study situates the discourse within the broader context of Ghana’s democratization, revealing how underlying phenomena possibly pose a threat to, and challenge the prospects of democratic consolidation. However, the conclusion indicates that the outcome of elections, which were deemed free and fair, should not be the only area of interest as the processes that lead to the elections are of great concern for a democracy. The work identifies several areas of concern, in particular Ghana’s electoral management, intra-party conflicts, unconventional aggression, vituperative outbursts and personal attacks, internal party elections, campaigns, how some chiefs violated a constitutional provision and outwardly portrayed partisanship, and brief issues concerning vote buying.
Ghana is now seen as a thriving African democracy after having gone through seven presidential and parliamentary elections, resulting in three turnovers of political power in 2001, 2009 and 2017. The 2016 election was another crossroad for Ghana’s maturing democracy. In this election, the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC) lost to the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP). The margin of defeat suffered by the ruling NDC was a puzzling and unprecedented. Using voter behaviour as a theoretical taxonomy, this paper attempts to explain the monumental defeat of the NDC in the 2016 general elections. It poses the question: what factors led to this defeat and why was there such a monumental difference of over one million votes? The paper argues that firstly, the defeat was due to regime fatigue anchored in the two-term regime cycle of change and voting based on party identification. Secondly, the defeat was monumental because of poor economic performance; corruption on the part of some government ministers and attempts to shield them; unpopular last minute decisions; the gross display of arrogance by some ministers of state and party officials; a more appealing campaign message of hope from the main opposition party; poor branding and communication of NDC’s campaign promises and ideas; abuse of incumbency; voter apathy on the part of ruling party supporters and the general call for change across the world. The study concludes by offering some useful recommendations.
Ghana is now seen as a thriving African democracy after having gone through seven presidential and parliamentary elections, resulting in three overturns of political power in 2001, 2009 and 2017. The 2016 election was another crossroad for Ghana's maturing democracy. In this election, the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC) lost to the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP). The margin of defeat suffered by the ruling NDC was puzzling and unprecedented. Using voter behaviour as a theoretical taxonomy, this paper attempts to explain the monumental defeat of the NDC in the 2016 general election. It poses the question: what factors led to this defeat and why was there such a monumental difference of over one million votes? The paper argues that firstly, the defeat was due to regime fatigue anchored in the two-term regime cycle of change and voting based on party identification. Secondly, the defeat was monumental because of poor economic performance; corruption on the part of some government ministers and attempts to shield them; unpopular last minute decisions; the gross display of arrogance by some ministers of state and party officials; a more appealing campaign message of hope from the main opposition party; poor branding and communication of NDC's campaign promises and ideas; abuse of incumbency; voter apathy
The Successful Ghana Election of 2008: A Convenient Myth? Ethnicity in Ghana's elections revisited
Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No. 16167, posted 12. July 2009. revised version published in: Journal of Modern African Studies, 48 (2010) 1: 95-115 , 2009
ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ: Ghana's 2008 election has been hailed by national and international observers as a model for Africa. The perception of success has prevailed despite persistent concerns about an inflated voters' register and electoral fraud perpetrated by the two major parties, the NPP and NDC, in their strongholds in the Ashanti and Volta Regions respectively. Electoral malpractice in Ghana's virtual two-party system could acquire a decisive importance as a ‘third force’, representing an even more important factor than the smaller opposition parties. Unfortunate diplomatic and technocratic biases in election monitoring, combined with a reluctance on the part of the responsible authorities to investigate what appears to be a long history of fraudulent voting, amounts to a dangerous time bomb of unresolved conflict which could detonate in future elections. [revised version of GIGA-WP, Nr. 109, 2009] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RÉSUMÉ: [ Le succès de l'élection du Ghana de 2008: un mythe commode? ] - L’élection 2008 du Ghana a été salué par les observateurs nationaux et internationaux comme un modèle pour l'Afrique. La perception de la réussite a prévalu malgré les inquiétudes persistantes sur le registre des électeurs gonflés et la fraude électorale perpétrée par les deux principaux partis, le NPP et le NDC, dans leurs fiefs dans les régions Ashanti et Volta, respectivement. La fraude électorale dans le système bipartite virtuel du Ghana pourrait acquérir une importance décisive en tant que « troisième force », ce qui représente un facteur encore plus important que les petits parties d'opposition. Les biais diplomatiques et technocratiques dans la surveillance des élections, combinées avec une réticence de la part des autorités chargées d'enquêter sur ce qui semble être une longue histoire de fraude électorale, équivalent à une bombe à retardement dangereuse de conflits non résolus qui pourrait faire exploser lors d'élections futures. [version révisée du GIGA-WP, Nr. 109, 2009] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IMAGE: Polling Station, Ghana presidential elections, 2008. Accra, Jamestown. Credit: D. Kohnert
The successful Ghana election of 2008: a convenient myth?
2010
Ghana's 2008 elections have been hailed by national and international observers as a model for Africa. This perception has prevailed despite persistent concerns about "ethnic block voting" and electoral fraud. Electoral malpractice and vote rigging along ethnic lines in Ghana's virtual two-party system could regain decisive importance as a "third force" that could tip the balance in future, possibly coming to represent an even more important factor than the smaller opposition parties. Unfortunate diplomatic and technocratic biases in election monitoring, combined with a reluctance on the part of the responsible authorities to investigate irregularities in what appears to be a long history of fraudulent "ethnic block voting", amounts to a dangerous time bomb of unresolved conflict which could explode in future elections.
Seminar Presentation on the Abuse of Incumbency in Ghana Politics
In Ghana, the 1992 Constitution of the Republic of Ghana makes it clear that political participation and competition must be fair. That is why Article 55 of the Constitution guarantees a right to all citizens to join and participate in the activities of political parties. It further insists on equal access to state media resources for political parties and their presidential candidates. This paper conducts a post-mortem of Ghana’s ruling National Democratic Congress and its candidate President John Dramani Mahama’s accounting to the people initiative which took him on a tour of the nation to tout his achievement in the heat of the 2016 general elections.