An early phase risk and uncertainty assessment method for CO2 geological storage sites (original) (raw)
Related papers
Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 2014
Methodologies for quantitative risk assessment regarding CO 2 storage operations are currently 16 scarce mostly because of the lack of experience in this field and the relatively significant 17 uncertainty degree regarding the subsurface intrinsic properties and the processes occurring 18 after the injection starts. This paper presents a practical approach designed to perform a 19 quantitative risk assessment in an uncertain context. Our approach is illustratedon a realistic 20 case study (Paris basin, France), conceived to be representative of the level of information 21 available in the early stages of a project.It follows the risk assessment principles from the 22 international standard(ISO 31000:2009), whichare adapted to account for the specificities and 23 challenges of subsurface operations. After the establishment of the context of the specific case 24 study, the main risks were identified and we analysed two different risk scenarios(risk of brine 25 2 leakage from an abandoned well, riskof subsurface use conflict).These scenarios were 26 selected to give a comprehensive overview of different types of analysis in terms of available 27 data, modelling tools and uncertainty management methodologies.The main benefit of this 28 paper is to proposeanapproach, based on existing risk assessment standards, best practices and 29 analysis tools,which allows an objective quantitative risk analysis taking into account the 30 uncertainties, and therefore enablesa fully informed decision-making whileevaluating risk 31 acceptability. 32 33 3
Energy Procedia, 2011
For carbon dioxide capture and storage to make an effective contribution in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a large number of storage sites will be required. Safety will have to be demonstrated for each of these sites. We present in this paper a simple and flexible framework to assess safety of a CO 2 storage site in a time-efficient manner. It includes the identification by an expert panel of the relevant risk scenarios. Their evaluation privileges analytical or semi-analytical modelling with conservative assumptions. Uncertainty is managed in order to thoroughly represent and propagate the nature of information relative to the site properties. We illustrate the application of this framework with a case study in the context of the Paris Basin. The workflow described is not a complete risk assessment framework, but it constitutes a useful tool for an operator at an early stage of a project or to iteratively screen safety issues, or for a regulating authority to review the safety conditions of a project.
CO2 geological storage safety assessment: methodological developments
2010
Carbon dioxide capture and geological storage is seen as a promising technology to mitigate greenhouse gas atmospheric emissions. Its wide-scale implementation necessitates demonstrating its safety for humans and the environment. We have developed a generic approach to provide references for safety assessment of CO2 storage. It is composed of a series of simple tools for identifying risk scenarios, modelling risk events and exposure. It incorporates a rigorous management of uncertainty, distinguishing between variability and knowledge incompleteness. We applied this approach on a case study in the Paris Basin. This demonstrates how it delivers conditions mixing qualitative and quantitative elements for guaranteeing safety. This approach is flexible; it can be used for various sites and with various amounts of data. It can be carried out in a time-efficient manner at various stages of a project. In particular, it provides an operator or an authority with safety indicators in an early...
Recent advances in risk assessment and risk management of geologic CO2 storage
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2015
This paper gives an overview of the advances made in the field of risk assessment and risk management of geologic CO2 storage (GCS), since the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage in 2005. Development and operation of a wide range of demonstration projects coupled with development of new regulations for safe injection and storage of CO2 have led to development and deployment of a range of risk assessment approaches. New methods and tools have been developed for quantitative and qualitative risk assessment. These methods have been integrated effectively with monitoring and mitigation techniques and deployed in the field for smallscale field tests as well as large-scale commercial projects. An important development has been improved definition of risks, which can be broadly classed as site performance risks, long-term containment risks, public perception risks and market risks. Considerable experience has now been gained on understanding and managing site performance risks. Targeted research on containment risks and induced seismicity risks has led to improved understanding of parameters and processes influencing these risks as well as identifying key uncertainties that need to be targeted. Finally, significant progress has been made to effectively integrate communication strategies with risk management approaches to increase stakeholder confidence in effectiveness of deployed risk management approaches to manage risks.
A comparative analysis of risk assessment methodologies for the geologic storage of carbon dioxide
Energy Procedia, 2011
This paper offers a broad summary of the most common risk assessment methodologies for the geologic storage of carbon dioxide. We believe it is valuable to compare these methodologies, particularly in the areas where they lead to similar conclusions. The objective of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the current similarities and differences of these proposed methodologies. Since CCS was proposed as a mitigation option for reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, several attempts have been made to study the potential risks of long-term storage of CO 2 in geological formations. Various worldwide projects have tried different industrial methods adapted to GSC. In spite of these efforts, currently there is no standardised method or set of methods for evaluating risk and/or uncertainty for GSC projects. Application or adaptation of advanced industrial quantitative risk assessment methods seems not convenient at this point because of lack of specific data. The development of frameworks and qualitative methods looks the most trustable for current projects.
Determining safety criteria for CO2 geological storage
Energy Procedia, 2009
The development of a methodology for defining safety criteria for CO 2 geological storage, realised under the ongoing CRISCO2 project, is depicted in this paper. Generic lists of eleven risk events and nine types of targets are proposed to serve an expert panel for identifying risk scenarios. Assessing the effects of risk events and comparing targets exposure to critical thresholds should lead to setting safety requirements. We focus on simple modelling, such as abacuses, analytical or semi-analytical models. An uncertainty management framework completes this methodology. Further work will concentrate on effectively deducing safety criteria.
Geological Storage Safety Assessment: Methodological Developments. PSAM 10
Carbon dioxide capture and geological storage is seen as a promising technology to mitigate greenhouse gas atmospheric emissions. Its wide-scale implementation necessitates demonstrating its safety for humans and the environment. We have developed a generic approach to provide references for safety assessment of CO 2 storage. It is composed of a series of simple tools for identifying risk scenarios, modelling risk events and exposure. It incorporates a rigorous management of uncertainty, distinguishing between variability and knowledge incompleteness. We applied this approach on a case study in the Paris Basin. This demonstrates how it delivers conditions mixing qualitative and quantitative elements for guaranteeing safety. This approach is flexible; it can be used for various sites and with various amounts of data. It can be carried out in a time-efficient manner at various stages of a project. In particular, it provides an operator or an authority with safety indicators in an early phase or for reviewing a risk assessment. Though not a complete risk assessment workflow, it thus partly compensates for the current lack of commonly acknowledged assessment methods or safety standards for CO 2 geological storage.
A Framework Approach for Risk Assessment and Management of CO2 Geological Storage
2021
The aim of this article is to analyze the particular contributions provided by the Risk Assessment and Management framework to the CO2 geological storage process on the offshore oil and gas sector. The CO2 geological storage, inherent to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) activities, is characterized as an effective mitigation option to reduce the levels of this gas in the environment. The risk assessment allows the identification of the most significant risks and impacts, respecting the facilities characteristics, the geological conditions of the basin and the associated natural processes, assisting to propose measures that reduce the probability or the magnitude of their occurrence. Then, this analysis requires an understanding of the stages of the frameworks for Risk Assessment of CO2 storage streams in geological formations of the main international organizations, based on studies of the literature reviewed for these purposes. In fact, the risk management procedures are necessary to maximize the intended isolation and to minimize the effects of possible CO2 leakage. Finally, the results demonstrate a consistent relationship between the Risk Assessment and Management tool and its frameworks specificities for this activity.
Energy Procedia, 2009
Effective large scale deployment of CCS requires recognized standards and guidelines. This paper presents a new 18 month Joint Industry/Public Project (CO 2 QUALSTORE) that aims to develop a systematic risk-based procedure for selection, characterization and qualification of sites and projects for geological storage of CO 2. The project will integrate and interpret results from R&D and pilot projects into a guideline format. Target users are operators, authorities, verifiers, and other stakeholders. The guideline will include examples from case studies; links to decisions during development, operation and closure; assistance in complying with regulations; as well as accounting for emissions avoided.