Prediction of Arrival Time Dependent Delay Variability at Signalized Intersections (original) (raw)

Abstract

This paper describes the derivation of two analytical models for predicting the mean and variance of delay that a vehicle will experience when traversing a fixed-time signalized intersection approach at a known future point of time. This delay, referred as to arrival time dependent delay in this paper, differs from the traditional average delay estimate used in intersection performance analysis in that it is a function of the time at which the vehicle transverse the link. Arrival time dependent estimates of the mean and variance of delay are important for the successful deployment of many Intelligent Transportation Systems such as in-vehicle route guidance systems and Advanced Traffic Management Systems. The models presented in this paper are developed on the basis of an analysis of delay under two extreme traffic conditions: highly undersaturated and highly oversaturated conditions. A discrete cycle-by-cycle simulation model is used to generate data for calibrating and validating the proposed models. The analysis indicates a remarkable agreement (R 2 > 0.99) between the proposed analytical models and the simulation results.

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