Natural hazard impacts on industry and critical infrastructure: Natech risk drivers and risk management performance indicators (original) (raw)
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Natech Risk and Management: An Assessment of the State of the Art
Natural Hazards, 2008
The present state-of-the-art for natech risk and management is discussed. Examples of recent natechs include catastrophic oil spills associated with Hurricane Katrina and hazardous chemical releases in Europe during the heavy floods of 2002. Natechs create difficult challenges for emergency responders due to the geographical extent of the natural disaster, the likelihood of simultaneous releases, emergency personnel being preoccupied with response to the natural disaster, mitigation measures failing due to the effects of the natural disaster, and others. Recovery from natechs may be much more difficult than for “normal” chemical accidents, as the economic and social conditions of the industrial facility and the surrounding community may have been drastically altered by the natural disaster. Potential safeguards against natechs include adoption of stricter design criteria, chemical process safeguards, community land use planning, disaster mitigation and response planning, and sustainable industrial processes, but these safeguards are only sporadically applied. Ultimately, the public must engage in a comprehensive discussion of acceptable risks for natechs.
Dealing with cascading multi-hazard risks in national risk assessment: The case of Natech accidents
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019
Natural hazard impacts on industrial activities handling hazardous substances can result in severe cascading events such as fires, explosions, and toxic or radioactive releases. These so-called Natech accidents are often overlooked in regional and national disaster risk management plans. National Risk Assessment (NRA) is a wellknown instrument to identify, analyse and compare a wide range of risks with potential impacts at a national extent. Increasingly complex and comprehensive NRAs are used globally for informed decision making. Although recognised as an important emerging issue, Natech risks are currently not considered systematically in NRAs. One cause for this deficiency is the lack of dedicated methodologies and guidance for Natech risk assessment within the NRA context. This study fills this gap by giving insight on how and in which setting Natech risks should be assessed in the NRAs. Following a contextual description of the Natech risk within the overall NRA process, different approaches for Natech risk assessment at the national level are discussed and differences with facility-level risk assessment are indicated. Natech-specific aspects to be considered in risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation are explained in detail with examples from past accidents. Finally, research and policy challenges hampering the reliable Natech risk assessment in the NRAs are discussed. The provided information can improve the coherence and consistency of Natech-related aspects in the NRAs. As Natech risk is regarded as a typical example of multi-hazard risk, guidance on how to consider Natech risk can also support a better assessment of other cascading risks.
State of the art in Natech risk management
… General Joint Research …, 2004
There is growing evidence that natural disasters can trigger technological disasters, and that these joint events (also known as natechs) may pose tremendous risks to regions which are unprepared for such events. The recent floods across Europe in the summer of 2002 and the multiple hazardous materials releases triggered by the Turkey earthquake of August 1999 were examples which showed the potential danger of a natech disaster occurring near populated areas. However, there is scarce information available on the interactions between natural disasters and simultaneous technological accidents. This report aims to provide an overview of the natech problem, and to present the state of the art in natech risk management. The report identifies the main problems in natech risk management and emergency response, as well as proposes a set of key strategies for natech risk reduction. v CONTENTS ABSTRACT iv CONTENTS v 1.2.1
Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue
2010
Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on quantitative risk analysis were developed. Strategies based on the use of multiple information layers aiming at the identification of mitigation and early warning systems were also explored. A case-study in the Emilia-Romagna region is presented.
Awareness and Mitigation of NaTech Accidents: Toward a Methodology for Risk Assessment
Special Issue of Natural …, 2006
Natural hazards affecting chemical and process facilities deserve particular attention since they can cause the release of hazardous substances possibly resulting in severe environmental pollution, explosions and/or fires (so-called NaTech accidents). Awareness of the hazard posed by Natech events is growing, and a need for explicitly including NaTech accidents into chemical-accident prevention and mitigation is nowadays widely recognized. Nevertheless, several elements that characterize Natech events still need to be investigated. In particular, only scarce data exists on equipment damage modes, release intensities and the final consequences for these accidents. The present contribution focuses on the development of a general framework for the assessment of NaTech risk. The analysis of past accident data allowed the gathering of data on the expected damage of process equipment caused by the impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events. Failure modes and damage states caused by these different natural events were identified. The expected intensity value of loss of containment (LOC) was obtained by statistical analysis.
A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events
Natural Hazards, 2021
Because of the recent frequency of climatic hazards and extreme weather events, disasters caused by natural hazards are attracting increased attention from the governments, communities, and the public. Synergistic effects between natural and technological hazards have a significant role in risk assessment. To address these effects, a Natech risk assessment model based on a natural-technological-prone (Natech-prone) facility network is developed to clarify specific scenarios and assess Natech risk. A weighted and directed graph is employed to map out the industrial facilities and other necessary information emerging from the display. It is assumed that the final risk triggered by a natural event is the result of disasters caused by Natech-prone facilities. The decision weights of Natech-prone facilities are heavily dependent on the recognition of the interacting components. A subjective probability is applied to the expected risk utility function to overcome the disadvantage of objective probability, which fails to address the uncertainty found in irrational human factors. Fuzzy measures are used to describe the positive and negative synergistic effects caused by the interaction between Natech-prone facilities. In addition, a Choquet integral is incorporated into the method to deduce the positive and negative synergistic effects in risk assessment. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model, and comparisons and analyses are provided. This paper conceptualizes a specific scenario of a Natech accident. The use of an expected risk utility function for dependent disaster events is a new idea in the field of Natech risk assessment.
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019: Natech
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019 (GAR 2019), 2019
The fifth edition of the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is being issued four years after the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (Sendai Framework). This edition of GAR is the first punctuation mark in the implementation of the Sendai Framework. It offers an update on progress made in implementing the outcome, goal, targets and priorities of the Sendai Framework and disaster-related Sustainable Development Goals. It provides an analysis of how risk science is changing, presents areas for additional endeavour, and explores aspects of understanding and managing systemic risk. It presents innovative research and practice for pursuing risk-informed sustainable development, and provides an introduction to the wider scope and nature of hazards and related risks to be considered. Chapter 3 of the report on "risk" investigates how we currently monitor and model a range of hazards, including tsunamis, landslides, floods and fires. Other hazards are less familiar as they were not part of the Hyogo Framework for Action. However, they are part of the Sendai Framework and include: biological, nuclear/radiological, chemical/industrial, NATECH (natural hazards triggering technological disasters) and environmental hazards. Chapter 3 looks at our understanding of how these hazards interact with exposure and vulnerability. Chapter 3.1.9 on "Natech" describes Natech events which are a recurring but often overlooked fature in many disaster situations. Besides providing examples of important Natech accidents that occurred in the past, the characteristics of Natech risk are discussed. Information on Natech risk drivers and instruments for effective Natech risk management are explained, together with how progress in Natech risk reduction can be measured.
Natech Hazard and Risk Assessment
Words Into Action Guidelines: National Disaster Risk Assessment - Governance System, Methodologies and Use of Results, 2017
In 2016 the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) commissioned the development of guidelines on national disaster risk assessment (NDRA) as part of a series of thematic guidelines under its “Words into Action” initiative to support national implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. The present Guidelines are the result of the collaboration between over 100 leading experts from national authorities, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, academia, think tanks and private-sector entities. They focus on Sendai Framework’s first Priority for Action: Understanding Disaster Risk, which is the basis for all measures on disaster risk reduction and is closely linked to the other three Priorities for Action. "Natech Hazard and Risk Assessment" section in Part 3 of the Guidelines covers in-depth information on conducting risk assessment for Natech hazards.
Dramatic natural events recently stroke several countries worldwide. The impact of the natural events on industrial sites often resulted in large releases of hazardous materials, causing severe technological accidents (Natural-Technological or NaTech events). Industrial operators were often found unprepared or off-guard for unannounced events but also when they had received early warnings. Due to these occurrences, public awareness has raised and the issue of NaTech is now considered as an emerging risk. Due to the climate change and increase in the frequency of some categories of natural disasters, the likelihood of NaTech scenarios is growing, thus NaTech may be also considered as a new risk in some areas of the world. In the present study, the process that ended in the awareness of the scientific community and of the general public toward NaTech has been analyzed. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of NaTech scenarios are evidenced. The analysis is mainly addressed to the potential impact of flood, lightning, and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present, aiming at the identification of strategies to improve the resilience of industrial facilities to technological accidents caused or intensified by natural hazards.
A qualitative Natech damage scale for the impact of floods on selected industrial facilities
Natural Hazards, 2008
There is increasing evidence that natural disasters can trigger technological accidents and damage. These so-called Natech accidents can pose a significant risk to regions that are unprepared for responding to them. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre has recognised the risk associated with Natech events and has started systematic research into Natechs and their underlying dynamics. This work investigates the risk associated with the flooding of industrial installations through an analysis of past case histories and using expert judgement. The potential impact of three levels of flood severity on selected industrial facilities storing and/or processing (eco-)toxic, flammable or explosive materials is analysed qualitatively and a scale is developed that links the flood intensity to the level of potential damage. Our analysis indicates that natural disasters have the potential for triggering hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Hence, natural disasters should be considered as separate accident-triggering events in the planning, design and operating stages of industrial facilities that process or store hazardous substances. Our work revealed a lack of detailed information on the occurrence of Natech events which indicates not necessarily a scarcity of Natechs but rather a lack of standardised reporting and record keeping.