Evaluation of climate change impacts on soil erosion in a catchment in the west of Iran (original) (raw)

Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2021

Abstract

Climate change has been regarded as the most important cause of land degradation in the world by changing the precipitation pattern. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on soil erosion by RUSLE model in Gol-Gol catchment in the west of Iran. To do so, first, simulation of meteorological factors, such as precipitation and temperature, was performed using climate change models based on the recorded meteorological data for future periods up to the end of current century. Second, considering the use of the RUSLE model, the erosion status of the catchment was simulated based on the R parameter extracted from the current state of the meteorological parameters. Third, this calibrated model was used to simulate erosion based on the meteorological values of future periods and the difference between the erosion rate and its increase or decrease. The results showed an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation and, consequently, a decrease in erosion rate in the Gol-Gol watershed, Ilam, Iran. The average annual decreases of erosion results for the periods of 2040s, 2070s, and 2099s, in the RCP8.5 scenario, were 56%, 59.2%, and 64.1%, respectively, whereas, in the RCP4.5 scenario, it would be 23.5%, 29.7%, and 24.02%, respectively. Besides, in the RCP2.6 scenario, the erosion results would decrease by 6.2%, 4.05%, and 1.4%; in the A2 scenario, we had 26.9%, 27.2%, and 49.5%; and in the B2 scenario, the results were 0.34% and 7.77%, respectively. Besides, a 13.7% decrease was witnessed over the baseline period.

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