Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in China: Drivers and Forecasts (original) (raw)
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Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey
Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences
Mobile telephony has become a main factor driving the social and economic development of a country. This study examines the diffusion process of mobile telephony in Albania and Turkey. The aim of this research is to model and to forecast the diffusion rate of mobile telephony using Logistic and Gompertz models, and World Bank data. The results of estimated models indicated that the Gompertz model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Albania, and the Logistic model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Turkey. According to the results of the Logistic model, the best model for predicting the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Albania, the maximum level of the mobile diffusion rate of 131.89% will be achieved in the year 2025. The results of the Gompertz model, the best model for predicting the mobile telephony in Turkey indicate that the maximum diffusion rate of 97.98% is predicted to be achieved after the year 2025. These findings are useful to telecommunication operators, policymakers, and customers.
2018
Growth models, based on the theory of diffusion of innovations, are highly proficient in developing an empirical understanding of country-wide diffusion of mobile services. The currently available literature lacks in explanation of the diffusion of successive generations (G’s) of mobile services in various countries. This study furthers the research by analyzing the diffusion of 2G through 4G in Germany, UK, France and Italy, the four largest economies of Europe. We select Bass, Gompertz and Simple Logistic growth models, to analyze the diffusion process, and forecast the adoption of 3G, 4G and 5G mobile broadband, in the four countries. A comparative analysis of the diffusion model parameters, and the forecasting accuracies, estimated through non-linear least-square regression, determines Gompertz and Simple Logistic model as best suited to explain 3G and 4G diffusion, and Bass model as best suited to explain 2G diffusion. Market potential for 3G, 4G and 5G is the highest in France...
Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Balkan Countries
9th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Information Systems and Technology Innovations - Smart economy and digital transformation, 2019
Mobile telephony has become one of the main factors driving the social and economic development of a country. This study examines the diffusion process of mobile telephony in Albania,. The main objective of this research is to model and to forecast the diffusion rate of mobile telephony using Logistic and Gompertz models, and World Bank data. Results indicated that Logistic model outperform Gompertz model and give the minimum forecast error to mobile telephony diffusion rate for countries in the study excluding Greece. Comparing the estimated parameters of the best fitted models, Bulgaria has the highest estimated speed of diffusion of 0.647, whereas Albania has the lowest diffusion speed (0.178). The results of Logistic model, the best model for prediction of the mobile telephony diffusion rate in Albania, indicate that the maximum level of mobile diffusion of 132% is predicted to be achieved in year 2025. Diffusion of mobile technology of other countries in the study has achieved the maximum level. These findings are useful to customers, telecommunication operators, and policy makers.
Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan
Telecommunications Policy, 2009
Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.
A Methodology to Improve the Mobile Diffusion Forecasting: the Case of Greece
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Accurate forecasting is extremely important for managers and technology planners in a rapidly evolving global environment. In this paper we apply the Gompertz model to Telecommunications growth in different countries. We conclude that although most of the European countries converge to approximately the same saturation level, using traditional diffusion models could artificially force convergence based on the historical data leading to over estimate or under-estimate of saturation level. The question for planners is how to improve these forecasts. One approach is to select the saturation level carefully based on other information available to the planner. We will show that analogy and interpolation using observed trends from other countries with similar characteristics could also produce good forecasts. The paper uses Greece and Italy to illustrate this approach.
Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece
Telecommunications Policy, 2008
This paper examines and presents the diffusion rate of mobile telephony subscriptions in Greece. Following the evaluation of the most widely used aggregate technology diffusion models (such as the Bass model, the Fisher-Pry model, the Gompertz models and some representatives of the logistic variants), it becomes evident that these S-shaped models are suitable enough for accurate fitting and forecasting the diffusion of mobile telephony. The analysis of the diffusion process in Greece provides some interesting aspects of mobile penetration such as the correlation between the diffusion speed and the number of competing operators as well as other socioeconomic and regulatory aspects. As a result of the estimation of 2G's diffusion process parameters, the potential market size and the analysis of the techniques for the appropriate model selection, this analysis can be considered as a means of providing an insight into the estimation of the diffusion shapes of the forthcoming generations of mobile telephony and telecommunication products and services in Greece and elsewhere. r
Modelling and forecasting mobile telecommunication services: the case of Greece
Applied Economics Letters, 2010
In this paper we try to model the adoption pattern of mobile telecommunication services into the Greek market for the period from 1993 to 2005. Two separate sigmoid curves, the Gompertz and the Logistic, are fitted to the observed number of subscribers by means of non-linear least squares. The in-sample fit to data favoured the use of the Logistic curve in describing the diffusion process, fact which is further supported by Frances' parametric test (1994b). The dominance of the Logistic curve over the Gompertz is also verified via a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Furthermore, an attempt is made to predict the expected number of subscribers up to 2015, solely based on the Logistic curve. Taking into account the prediction's uncertainty, the variance of the forecast errors is calculated utilising the non-parametric bootstrap method. Our empirical results reached to three conclusions. First, the introduction of the pre-paid mobile telephony in 1997 along with the entry of the third mobile operator in 1998 has boosted the diffusion process in Greece; second, the levelling-off process in the diffusion of mobile phones has already begun; finally, the average expected growth rate in new subscribers is less than half percent for the period between 2006 and 2015.
Computational Economics, 2007
The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of the timedelay effect on the diffusion of mobile telecommunication services in EU. It has been proved from several studies that the time-delay between the awareness and the adoption phase of mobile services-potential users determines the speed of the mobile telecommunication service diffusion and can be used effectively for ranking or cluster purposes in cases when the diffusion of a new product in different countries is studied. The proposed modeling approach originates from the well-known logistic model where it is assumed that the ordinary contagion process does not take place instantly but after some certain amount of time. A proper modification of the proposed model described by a time lag ordinary differential equation can be solved analytically and its properties for several parameters' combination are investigated. Moreover, a new diffusion speed index is proposed and the correlation between the time-delay index and the proposed diffusion speed index is examined. Finally the model is applied to real data concerning the mobile services diffusion in fifteen counties of EU from 1990 to 2002. Based on the estimated parameters of the model produced for each country a ranking and a clustering of the EU countries based on their derived diffusion speed and time-delay indexes are provided.