Covid-19, Financial Markets (Islamic vs Non-Islamic), and Exchange Rate: Does the Malaysian Market Offers Diversification Opportunities to the Investors? (original) (raw)
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2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has in its short existence caused economic downturn and affected global markets. As would be expected, the occurrences of global crises or shocks often heighten uncertainties in international markets and increase correlations among them. Yet, not much is known of the actual impacts of COVID-19 on the behavior of global markets. This piece attempts to investigate whether the COVID-19 crisis has had any impact on the interrelationship structure of international markets using the cross-wavelet squared coherence and a dynamic wavelet correlation technique. It emerges that co-movements of the pairwise series become stronger (0.70–0.89) during the heightened periods labeled as epidemic and pandemic phases of COVID-19, than that of the periods that mark the pre-COVID-19 era (−0.49–0.36), hence announcing the influence of the crisis and eroding prospect of benefiting from a hedge instrument and/or a diversifier. Again, we observe that stock market-Global REITs have bee...
Evaluation Review
The COVID-19 outbreak and the global uncertainty it causes produce an apparent panic in stock markets. Efforts to explain the economic spillover effects of COVID-19 can guide authorities to design a control policy against the financial impacts of pandemics. The paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 cases on the stock markets in the emerging Latin American countries of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The paper employs a continuous partial wavelet methodology to observe lead-lag relations between the daily variables of new COVID-19 cases and the stock market index for each Latin American country. Brazilian new COVID-19 cases led the Bovespa (BVSP) index to decline during the whole period, except February and June 2020, at one month-two month-frequency band. The wavelet and phase difference analyses indicate that, except for Brazil, COVID-19 cases did not affect the stock market indexes adversely during the whole sample period but did affect the stock exchang...
Co-movement between GCC stock markets and the US stock markets: A wavelet coherence analysis
Cogent Business & Management
In this article, the co-movement between GCC and US stock market returns was investigated using the wavelet coherence method. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) modelling is then applied on timevarying components in order to provide a point of comparison with the results extracted from wavelet analysis. The investigation was conducted on the weekly stock index prices of two USA stock markets, namely Dow Jones and S&P 500 and six GCC stock markets, namely the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The data were retrieved from Thomson Reuters's data stream and the sample duration was from 7 January 2007 to 24 June 2018. As a result, a definite co-movement between several GCC stock markets and those of the US stock markets for a long term was found. Moreover, the results also displayed signs of the significant disparity between the co-movements of the stock markets throughout the scales of time during economic decline. This phenomenon was possibly expected during the economic decline, where a significant divergence occurred as opposed to co-movement. The implications of the findings for global investors were considerable due to the indication from long-term co-movement that these investors would not be capable of gaining simultaneous profit from time and portfolio being diversified. In fact, the results showed the major difference in the opportunities for international portfolio diversification throughout these markets in terms of scale and time.
2020
The goal of this study is to analyse the co-movements and the portfolio diversification between the Islamic index of U.S. and its top trading partners, namely Canada, China, Mexico, Japan and Germany, using Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) daily returns data from January 2013 to August 2020. We employed three main techniques: multivariate-GARCH-DCC, CWT and MODWT to analyse whether these markets have any diversification opportunities. Our findings reveal that, first, we observed that the U.S. Islamic index and its trading partners showed increased integration after U.S. implemented its first China-specific tariffs in 2018 and were closely integrated during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Second, CWT results show that investors would gain diversification benefits in China and Mexico under specific investment horizons. Third, the results of MODWT shows Japan Islamic index provide short term diversification opportunity and Mexico Islamic index for longer term investments.
Frontiers in Energy Research
The motivation behind conducting this research is to study the association between oil prices and Islamic and conventional stock indexes’ performance in the Malaysian market during COVID-19 using the wavelet analysis technique. The daily data on selected variables were collected from 1 January 2020, to 10 June 2021. Empirical investigation was made with wavelet analysis along with the Toda-Yamamoto test. The results revealed the significant response of both indexes to the oil price. Such response was negative for the short- and medium terms; however, it became positive in the long run. Our research has several important implications and recommendations for asset managers and policymakers. Policymakers and regulators should promote awareness and adopt effective action plans to minimize the risk of change in oil prices during the COVID-19 period. This research will enable investors, scholars, and policymakers to improve their current structure and prepare them for any potential future...
Co-movements of GCC emerging stock markets: New evidence from wavelet coherence analysis
Economic Modelling, 2014
This paper examines the short term and long term dependencies between stock market returns for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) during the period 2005-2010. Our empirical investigation is based on the wavelet squared coherence which allows us to assess the co-movement in both time-frequency spaces. Our results reveal frequent changes in the pattern of the co-movements especially after 2007 for all the selected GCC markets at relatively higher frequencies. We further note an increasing strength of dependence among the GCC stock markets during the last financial crisis signifying enhanced portfolio benefits for investors in the short term relative to the long term. On the financial side, we uncover that the strength of co-movement between GCC markets may impact the multi-country portfolio's value at risk (VaR) levels. These findings provide potential implications for portfolio managers operating in the GCC region who are invited to consider co-movement through both frequencies and time when designing their portfolios.
Journal of Risk and Financial Management
Investors are interested in knowing whether sukuk bonds and shariah stock indices in the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) region are related. This study examines the connectedness between the sukuk- and shariah-compliant stock indices in the GCC financial markets. Bivariate and multivariate wavelet approaches are applied to the daily data covering the period 10 July 2008 to 15 May 2017. The empirical findings demonstrate a strong correlation between these GCC sukuk bond indices and shariah stock indices. The degree of connectedness between these sukuk and shariah stock indices varies across time and scale. A strong and positive association is observed in the short term and a negative association is evident in the long term. The same findings are observed, using the wavelet cohesion approach that also validates the existence of portfolio diversification opportunities at a short-time horizon. The multivariate cross-correlation analysis reveals that these sukuk and shariah stock markets ...
2013
Co-movements in equity markets may reflect either financial contagion or stock market integration. While the former tends to demonstrate financial stability and resiliency, the latter has played an important role for stock market development. This paper attempts to investigate the co-movements, including its transmission channels, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Islamic equity index with other Islamic equity indices (Asia Pacific, US, Eurozone, and ASEAN) as well as with Global Sukuk index (Islamic bond). As to the methodology, we employ multi-time scale wavelet analysis as one of the latest techniques in finance to unveil the time varying and multi-horizon nature of these comovements to capture both time and frequency domain simultaneously. Our finding shows that the most recent US-born subprime crisis has generated both long-term and short-term shocks to volatility of all Islamic equity indices. The GCC Islamic equity index is the most susceptible with the shocks mostly tran...
Multivariate Co-movement Between Islamic Stock and Bond Markets Among the GCC: A Wavelet-Based View
Computational Economics, 2017
In this study, we investigate the connectedness between sharia stock index and three Islamic bond yields within a global perspective of the Gulf Cooperation Council Islamic financial markets. The main novelty of the present study is that we extend previous studies by performing three wavelet variants in bivariate and multivariate frameworks, namely the wavelet multiple correlation, the wavelet multiple cross correlation and wavelet cohesion. The findings point out a significant changing pattern in the dynamic linkage between sharia stocks and Islamic bond yields in the time-frequency domain. A strong positive association is evidenced in the short horizons and a negative linkage is branded for longer timescales. Some resemblances are found for the wavelet cohesion corroborating the existence of potential portfolios' diversification opportunities at lower frequencies. The multivariate wavelet cross correlation unveils that the intensity of the co-movement reaches its zenith at high frequencies. These results are not similar to the bivariate wavelet coherence but are coincident with the wavelet cohesion approach, which may be due to the difference B Rania Jammazi
Back to Normal? Performance of Leading Islamic Capital Markets Since the Covid-19 Outbreak
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Islamic equities in leading Islamic capital markets. We investigate whether Islamic equities provide diversification benefits in a time of the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we use daily data spanning from 01 January 2017 to 22 October 2021 and employ the MGARCH-DCC technique. The empirical results reveal that the sample countries are less correlated than expected. As expected, the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak raised the volatility across the sample markets. However, its impact faded away relatively soon. This provides evidence that Islamic equities have safe haven features and offer portfolio diversification benefits to investors. The findings of this study would help policymakers and diverse investors in making their decisions on portfolio diversification. Investors and portfolio managers could benefit by focusing on countries with negative volatility and building optimal portfolios of the Islamic equities during the crisis period, such as the COVID-19.