Interaction between volcanic plumes and wind during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland (original) (raw)
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FPLUME-1.0: An integral volcanic plume model accounting for ash aggregation
Eruption source parameters (ESP) characterizing volcanic eruption plumes are crucial inputs for atmospheric tephra dispersal models, used for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D (one-dimensional) cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrain- ment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash par- ticles in the presence of liquid water or ice. In the occurrence of wet aggregation, the model predicts an effective grain size distribution depleted in fines with respect to that erupted at the vent. Given a wind profile, the model can be used to deter- mine the column height from the eruption mass flow rate or vice versa. The ultimate goal is to improve ash cloud disper- sal forecasts by better constraining the ESP (column height, eruption rate and vertical distribution of mass) and the effec- tive particle grain size distribution resulting from eventual wet aggregation within the plume. As test cases we apply the model to the eruptive phase-B of the 4 April 1982 El Chichón volcano eruption (México) and the 6 May 2010 Eyjafjalla- jökull eruption phase (Iceland). The modular structure of the code facilitates the implementation in the future code ver- sions of more quantitative ash aggregation parameterization as further observations and experiment data will be available for better constraining ash aggregation processes.
Effect of wind on the rise height of volcanic plumes
Geophysical Research Letters, 2001
A theoretical model of a volcanic plume, based on applying the equations of motion in a plume-centered coordinate system, suggests that the interaction between a volcanic plume and wind causes enhanced entrainment of air and horizontal momentum, plume bending, and a decrease in plume rise height at constant eruption rate. Because of rapid dilution in the high windspeeds of the polar jet, plumes that vary over more than one order of magnitude in mass eruption rate (10 6 to 10 7 − 10 8 kg/s), if injected into the polar jet, may all attain rise heights only slightly different from that of the core of the jet, ∼ 10 km, as opposed to 17 − 33 km in a still atmosphere.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011
The April-May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3±4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8-28 µm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6-16 %), 2 % (1-3 %) and 7 % (4-11 %), respec-Correspondence to: A. Stohl (ast@nilu.no) tively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m −3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2-2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1-1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m −3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.
Volcanic Plume Model Accounting for Ash Aggregation
2015
Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) characterizing volcanic eruption plumes are crucial inputs for atmospheric tephra dispersal models, used for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1D cross-section averaged eruption column model based on the Buoyant Plume Theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bent over ::::::: bending : by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, 5 a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in presence of liquid water or ice. In the occurrence of wet aggregation, the model predicts an "effective" ::::::::: “effective” : grain size distribution depleted in fines with respect to that erupted at the vent. Given a wind profile, the model can be used to determine the column height from the eruption mass flow rate or vice-versa. The ultimate goal is to improve ash cloud dispersal forecasts...
Modelling concentrations of volcanic ash encountered by aircraft in past eruptions
Atmospheric Environment, 2012
Prolonged disruption to aviation during the AprileMay 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland resulted in pressure to predict volcanic ash plume concentrations for the purpose of allowing aircraft to fly in regions with low ash contamination. Over the past few decades there have been a number of incidents where aircraft have encountered volcanic ash resulting in damage to the aircraft and loss of power to engines. Understanding the volcanic ash concentrations that these aircraft have encountered provides important input to determining a safe concentration limit.
Volcanic ash hazard climatology for an eruption of Hekla Volcano, Iceland
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2011
Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour 'explosive' eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption. Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.
The April–May 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that dramatic improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 µm diameter and extrapolate this to a total ash emission of 11.9 ± 5.9 Tg for the size range of 0.25–250 µm. We evaluate the results of our a posteriori model using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the “normal” flying zone in up to 14% (6–16%), 2% (1–3%) and 7% (4–11%), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5% (0.2–2.8%) and 0.9% (0.1–1.6%) occurred, while the current “no-fly” zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.