A clouded view of Europe’s demographic future (original) (raw)

Demographic Policies in the European Union

Revista română de geografie politică, 2023

Re ev vi is st ta a R Ro om mâ ân nă ă d de e G Ge eo og gr ra af fi ie e P Po ol li it ti ic că ă Year X XX XV V, no. 2 2/ /2 20 02 23 3, pp.

Europe's Two Demographic Crises: The Visible and the Unrecognized

Population and Development Review, 2016

MOST REASONABLE definitions of the term, the European Union is experiencing a demographic crisis rooted in a shortage of births relative to deaths. In the great majority of the EU's 28 member countries, fertility is far below the level that would be necessary for the reproduction of the population over time. If it were maintained in the coming decades at such a low level, population size in the affected countries would be cut by more than half in the short span of two generations-roughly 60 years. This drastically reduced population would have an age distribution inconsistent with economic sustainability. In countries experiencing this syndrome an inevitable future would eventually entail permitting massive immigration from lands not suffering from population deficit. But this prospect is not perceived, either by governments or by the general public, as a crisis. And understandably so: time horizons are short. Politicians are immersed in the here and now, their attention span extending at best to the next election. Public opinion has a similar limitation. In that short-term outlook the processes of population shrinkage and population aging are virtually imperceptible. From year to year population size and age distribution seem to be much the same. The road leading to what may in effect amount to collective national and civilizational suicide is taken unhurriedly, step by step. The policy measures now applied to remedy this unrecognized crisis by trying to raise fertility have so far proven ineffective, and their application in heavier doses promises no better results. While in longer-term perspective a spontaneous rise of fertility rates to a level at or at least close to what is required for population replacement cannot be excluded as a possibility, neither can fertility's decline to even lower levels. Thus, there is an urgent need to rethink social policies that might help to generate the former

Global population ageing, migration and European external policies

2005

Executive Summary During the last decades, it has become increasingly clear that demographic change constitutes one of the most important challenges of the 21st century. One important factor that has placed demographic change high on the political agenda is an increasing awareness of current demographic trends. Another factor that has contributed to the growing interest in demography is an emerging consensus among social scientists that demographic change is a vital trigger for social, economic and political development.

Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe

Demographic Research, 2008

This chapter discusses the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT) and its relevance for explaining the ongoing changes in family and fertility patterns across Europe. It takes a closer look at the shifts in values and attitudes related to family, reproduction, and children, and their representation in different chapters in this collection. It reexamines the link between the second demographic transition and fertility, highlights its strong positive association with fertility at later childbearing ages, and suggests that the transition does not necessarily lead to subreplacement fertility levels. Subsequently, it provides an extensive discussion on the progression of the SDT behind the former 'Iron Curtain.' To explain some apparent contradictions in this process, it employs a conceptual model of 'readiness, willingness, and ability' (RWA) advocated by Lesthaeghe and Vanderhoeft (2001). It also explores the multifaceted nature of the second demographic transition between different social groups, and points out an apparent paradox: whereas lowereducated individuals often embrace values that can be characterised as rather traditional, they also frequently manifest family behaviour associated with the transition, such as non-marital childbearing, high partnership instability, and high prevalence of long-term cohabitation. This suggests that there may be two different pathways of the progression of the second demographic transition. The concluding section points out the role of structural constraints for the diffusion of the transition among disadvantaged social strata, highlights the importance of the 'gender revolution' for the SDT trends, and discusses the usefulness of the SDT framework. 3 Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa acknowledge huge crosscountry heterogeneity in the SDT progression. Van de Kaa (2002: 31) concludes, nevertheless, that the persistent differences "are variations on the common themes: major changes in fertility, a redefinition of the model of the family, improvements in mortality, and becoming countries of immigration." He then concludes that "[i]t is our inability to explain these changes as a purely temporary disturbance, which convinces me that describing them as a 'Second Demographic Transition' is warranted." * All overview and country chapters referred to herein are part of Special Collection 7: Childbearing Trends

Future demographic change in Europe: the contribution of migration

2003

This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of possible alternative future migration trends in the European Union (EU-15) on population growth and ageing until 2050. In particular, it views the uncertainty about future migration trends in the context of the range of possible future fertility and mortality trends. This is first done by comparing two sets of probabilistic population projections, a "regular" one including immigration, and a hypothetical "no migration" case assuming a closed population. In the second part we consider the question to what extent immigration can compensate for the low birth rates in Europe by combining seven alternative fertility-level scenarios with four migration scenarios. The results show a distinct compensatory effect for both total population size and the old-age dependency ratio: 100,000 additional immigrants per year have the same effect as an increase in the total fertility rate by 0.1 children per woman on average.

Demography on the European agenda Strategies for tackling demographic decline

2020

The EU faces a number of demographic challenges such as ageing, a declining birth rate and depopulation in some of its regions. The EU represents an ever-shrinking proportion of the world population, at just 6.9 % today (down from 13.5 % in 1960), and is projected to fall further to just 4.1 % by the end of this century. This is explained by the low fertility rates as the numbers of children being born has fallen from an EU-28 average of around 2.5 children per woman in 1960, to a little under 1.6 today. This is far below the 2.1 births per woman considered necessary to maintain a stable population in the long term. Ageing is also another population trend in the EU. Due to advances in medicine and quality of life, the average life expectancy the EU has increased considerably and now stands at about 81 years on average. Demography matters. The economy, labour market, healthcare, pensions, regional development, and election results-all are driven by demography. EU Member States have their own strategies and policies in order to counteract demographic decline. The EU also has an auxiliary role when it comes to tackling demographic challenges. Nevertheless, the EU has limited legal powers when it comes to dealing with issues that are related to demography. The coronavirus epidemic also has an impact on demography. Covid-19 has caused many deaths of elderly people. Certain EU regions have been affected more than others from the spread of the coronavirus. Studies suggest that coronavirus has a considerable impact on EU population trends (such as number of deaths per country, reduction of life expectancy and family planning). Both the European Parliament and the European Committee of the Regions are preparing their own reports and opinions on issues that are related to demography. This briefing has been drafted at the request of a member of the European Committee of the Regions, under the Cooperation Agreement between Parliament and the Committee.