Modeling Distribution and Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard in Bhutan (original) (raw)
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Ecology and evolution, 2018
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Theriologia Ukrainica
Using species distribution modelling to guide survey efforts of the Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) in the Central Kyrgyz Ala-Too region.-V. Tytar, T. Asykulov, M. Hammer.-Listed as Vulnerable (IUCN 2017), the snow leopard is declining across much of its present range. One of the major reasons for the snow leopard population decline in the last two decades is a reduction in large prey species that are the cornerstone of the conservation of the snow leopard; in the Central Kyrgyz Ala-Too region such species is primarily the Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica). Understanding factors affecting basic requirement of ibex and shaping its distribution is essential for protecting the prey species snow leopards rely on the most. Using a niche modelling approach we explored which environmental features are best associated with ibex occurrence, how well do models predict ibex occurrence, and does the potential distribution of highly suitable ibex habitat correlate with records of snow leopard. A PC analysis was used to capture aspects of ibex ecology and niche. Results of such analysis agree with the herbivore character of the species and bioclimatic habitat requirements of the vegetation it feeds upon, richer in flatter areas, and where plants may benefit from more sunlight. The niche model based on maximum entropy (Maxent) had "useful" discrimination abilities (AUC = 0.746), enabling to produce a map, where a contour line is drawn around areas of highly predicted probability (> 0.5) of ibex occurrence. In terms of nature conservation planning and setting snow leopard research priorities these areas represent the most interest. With one outlier, most of snow leopard records made in the study area (n = 15) fell within the 10 percentile presence threshold (0.368). Predicted probability of ibex occurrence in places where records were made of snow leopard presence (pugmarks, scrapes etc.) was 0.559 expectedly suggesting areas of high ibex habitat suitability attract the predator.
Biological Conservation, 2018
Clouded leopards are among Asia's most widely distributed felids, but also among its least known and most vulnerable. Clouded leopards occur in some of the most rapidly disappearing forests in the world, yet a comprehensive assessment of their status and habitat use is lacking, which in turn limits identification of their priority conservation needs and capacity to act as umbrella species for conserving associated forest biodiversity. To address this need for the Sunda species (Neofelis diardi), we applied multi-scale modeling to identify both key environmental variables influencing habitat use and optimal scales of relationship with these variables. We detected clouded leopards at 18.3% of 1544 camera stations and 17 of 22 sampling locations on the islands of Borneo and Sumatra. Multi-scale GLMM revealed that recent forest loss and large-scale plantations strongly and negatively influence clouded leopard detection. Our findings also suggest that higher elevations and ridges are important components of N. diardi habitat use. We illustrate how scale optimization of habitat use can provide critical information for characterizing the requirements of protected areas, and identify core habitat patches and connectivity gaps in need of future protection. Our findings indicate greater challenges facing clouded leopards on Sumatra, including higher poaching pressure, greater fragmentation, and roughly half the habitat area available to N. diardi on Borneo. This research contributes vital insights to assist in prioritizing habitat conservation networks for the protection of this vulnerable felid and the forest biodiversity for which it is an ambassador species.
Oryx, 2015
There is a need for simple and robust techniques for assessment and monitoring of populations of the Endangered snow leopardPanthera unciato inform the development of action plans for snow leopard conservation. We explored the use of occupancy modelling to evaluate the influence of environmental and anthropogenic features on snow leopard site-use patterns. We conducted a camera trap survey across 480 km2in Gansu Province, China, and used data from 60 camera traps to estimate probabilities of site use and detection using the single season occupancy model. We assessed the influence of three covariates on site use by snow leopards: elevation, the presence of blue sheepPseudois nayaurand the presence of human disturbance (distance to roads). We recorded 76 captures of snow leopards over 2,906 trap-days, representing a mean capture success of 2.62 captures per 100 trap-days. Elevation had the strongest influence on site use, with the probability of site use increasing with altitude, wher...
Modelling potential habitat for snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in Ladakh, India
PLOS ONE
The snow leopard Panthera uncia is an elusive species inhabiting some of the most remote and inaccessible tracts of Central and South Asia. It is difficult to determine its distribution and density pattern, which are crucial for developing conservation strategies. Several techniques for species detection combining camera traps with remote sensing and geographic information systems have been developed to model the habitat of such cryptic and low-density species in challenging terrains. Utilising presence-only data from camera traps and direct observations, alongside six environmental variables (elevation, aspect, ruggedness, distance to water, land cover, and prey habitat suitability), we assessed snow leopard habitat suitability across Ladakh in northern India. This is the first study to model snow leopard distribution both in India and utilising direct observation data. Results suggested that elevation and ruggedness are the two most influential environmental variables for snow leopard habitat suitability, with highly suitable habitat having an elevation range of 2,800 m to 4,600 m and ruggedness of 450 m to 1,800 m. Our habitat suitability map estimated approximately 12% of Ladakh's geographical area (c. 90,000 km 2) as highly suitable and 18% as medium suitability. We found that 62.5% of recorded livestock depredation along with over half of all livestock corrals (54%) and homestays (58%) occurred within highly suitable snow leopard habitat. Our habitat suitability model can be used to assist in allocation of conservation resources by targeting construction of livestock corrals to areas of high habitat suitability and promoting ecotourism programs in villages in highly suitable snow leopard habitat.
Face Value: Towards Robust Estimates of Snow Leopard Densities
When densities of large carnivores fall below certain thresholds, dramatic ecological effects can follow, leading to oversimplified ecosystems. Understanding the population status of such species remains a major challenge as they occur in low densities and their ranges are wide. This paper describes the use of non-invasive data collection techniques combined with recent spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate the density of snow leopards Panthera uncia. It also investigates the influence of environmental and human activity indicators on their spatial distribution. A total of 60 camera traps were systematically set up during a three-month period over a 480 km2 study area in Qilianshan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China. We recorded 76 separate snow leopard captures over 2,906 trapdays, representing an average capture success of 2.62 captures/100 trap-days. We identified a total number of 20 unique individuals from photographs and estimated snow leopard density at 3.31 (SE = 1.01) individuals per 100 km2. Results of our simulation exercise indicate that our estimates from the Spatial Capture Recapture models were not optimal to respect to bias and precision (RMSEs for density parameters less or equal to 0.87). Our results underline the critical challenge in achieving sufficient sample sizes of snow leopard captures and recaptures. Possible performance improvements are discussed, principally by optimising effective camera capture and photographic data quality.
Modelling the habitat requirements of leopardPanthera pardusin west and central Asia
Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008
1. Top predators are seen as keystone species of ecosystems. Knowledge of their habitat requirements is important for their conservation and the stability of the wildlife communities that depend on them. The goal of our study was to model the habitat of leopard Panthera pardus in west and central Asia, where it is endangered, and analyse the connectivity between different known populations in the Caucasus to enable more effective conservation management strategies to be implemented. 2. Presence and absence data for the species were evaluated from the Caucasus, Middle East and central Asia. Habitat variables related to climate, terrain, land cover and human disturbance were used to construct a predictive model of leopard habitat selection by employing a geographic information system (GIS) and logistic regression. 3. Our model suggested that leopards in west and central Asia avoid deserts, areas with long-duration snow cover and areas that are near urban development. Our research also provides an algorithm for sample data management, which could be used in modelling habitats for similar species. 4. Synthesis and applications. This model provides a tool to improve search effectiveness for leopard in the Caucasus, Middle East and central Asia as well as for the conservation and management of the species. The model can predict the probable distribution of leopards and the corridors between various known populations. Connectivity patterns can be used to facilitate corridor planning for leopard conservation, especially in the Caucasus, where the leopard is a top priority conservation species. Also, as top predators are often associated with high biodiversity, the leopard habitat model could help to identify biodiversity hotspots. The protection of biodiversity hotspots is seen as the most effective way to conserve biodiversity globally.
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Existence of predators like common leopard (Panthera pardus) is associated with high biodiversity, so the protection of their habitats is one of the most effective ways to conserve biodiversity globally. Considering the facts above, the main objective of this research is to predict and map the possible habitat for Common Leopard in Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park by using remote sensing and GIS approach. In order to achieve that, Species Distribution Modeling (MaxEnt) was demonstrated to predict the Common Leopard’s distribution and was applied to figure out possible suitable area in Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park. By using presence – only data of Common Leopard (Panthera pardus) occurrences, 138 observation points alongside several environmental variables which consist Distance from Settlement Area, Forest, Bush, Road, Sparse Forest and Agricultural Area were developed in to MaxEnt Programme. Remotely sensed imagery of ResourceSat-2 imagery used by applying supervised classifica...
In this study, we assess potential habitats and connectivity for the common leopard (Panthera pardus) in the Indian part of the Kailash Sacred Landscape to predict suitable areas for future dispersal within the landscape. We used a modeling-based approach, which incorporates sixteen landscape variables to identify priority areas for leopard conservation in the Kailash Sacred Landscape. We opportunistically collected 205 presence locations across the 7120 km2 landscape during 2009-2015. The importance of each variable was evaluated using univariate regression analysis across five different spatial scales. The best spatial scale of each response variable was selected based on lowest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Due to multicollinearity in the landscape variables we computed Principal Components and used eight of the sixteen components as predictors in a multivariate generalized linear model of habitat suitability. A resistance surface model was developed to compute the leopard movement or connectivity across the landscape. We identified corridors between the largest forest patches in the landscape with UNICOR. Here we predict that a large area of the landscape comprising suitable leopard habitat is mostly found at the middle elevational range. This covers about 19.13% of the study area, of which 0.06% area was found to be highly suitable, 4.19% suitable and 14.87% moderately suitable. Further, we have also identified four priority connective corridors. We propose that the conservation of the leopard in this region requires immediate attention by applying integrated landscape-level management to arrest their recent high levels of mortality risk caused due to Human-Leopard conflict.
PLOS ONE, 2021
The endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in human use landscapes in the mountains of South and Central Asia. Conservationists generally agree that snow leopards must be conserved through a land-sharing approach, rather than land-sparing in the form of strictly protected areas. Effective conservation through land-sharing requires a good understanding of how snow leopards respond to human use of the landscape. Snow leopard density is expected to show spatial variation within a landscape because of variation in the intensity of human use and the quality of habitat. However, snow leopards have been difficult to enumerate and monitor. Variation in the density of snow leopards remains undocumented, and the impact of human use on their populations is poorly understood. We examined spatial variation in snow leopard density in Spiti Valley, an important snow leopard landscape in India, via spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis of camera trap data. We camera trapped an area e...