Farmers' adaptation to drought risk through farm–level decisions: the case of farmers in Dehloran county, Southwest of Iran (original) (raw)
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Journal of Hydrology, 2020
To control and reduce the effects of drought, it is essential for farmers to do drought risk management so as to cope with climate change. The purpose of this study was to "assessing farmers' drought risk management behavior (FDRMB) in downstream of Karkheh Dam basin, Iran". For this purpose, the "protection motivation theory (PMT)" was used to measure FDRMB. This theory consists of six variables i.e. "perceived vulnerability (PV)", "perceived severity (PS)", "self-efficacy (SE)", "response cost (RC)", "response efficacy (RC)", and "intention (IN)". This research included a descriptive-correlational and causal relationship that was conducted by a survey. The study population included farmers who were members in the water user association in downstream of Karkheh Dam (N = 3668), out of which, 350 users were sampled by Krejcie and Morgan's table and by the stratified random sampling method, respectively. In accordance with the PMT, for the variables affecting FDRMB a causal framework was designed. Findings from the path analysis indicated that the six variables in PMT might explain 0.473 of the FDRMB variance. Besides, SE had the highest effect in FDRMB (β = 0.503). As a general conclusion, policies need to make farmers take their own risk management decisions and have access to a variety of tools and strategies.
Understanding farmers' climate adaptation intention in Iran: a protection-motivation extended model
Land Use Policy, 2020
9 Adaptation to climate change is a matter of urgent social scientific analysis. Within the 10 agricultural sector of many developing nations, farmers must make long-term decisions to 11 adapt to climate change impacts in order to provide food security and sustainable livelihoods. 12 However, deeper understanding of farmers' decision-making, as a key stakeholder group, is of 13 vital importance in forming adaptive land use policy 'from the bottom-up'. This study 14 investigates the psychosocial factors that influence farmers' adaptation intention in the critical 15 case of Marvdasht County in Iran-a case that exemplifies agricultural stakeholder decision-16 making in arid and drought-prone regions. We present a conceptual combination-model 17 grounded in Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), employing a correlational survey among 18 256 farmer-stakeholders. First, we discuss the relative value of the combined model to 19 understanding adaptation intentions. Second, we find that the factors that represent the 20 externalities of farmers' behaviour need to be more thoroughly integrated in to adaptation 21 planning. Third, we find that farmers' adaptation intention is directly affected by 22 maladaptation, and indirectly by economic disincentives, barriers to belief in anthropogenic 23 climate change and broader risk perceptions. 24
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2014
Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions.
Scientific Reports
The aim of the current study is to consider farmers' perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on water resources and their intention toward adaptation in southwestern Iran. To this end, this study applied the theory of reasoned action and the norm activation model as well as these two models in combination. A descriptive quantitative research study was designed and conducted using cross-sectional survey methods among 250 farmers in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran, selected through multistage sampling methods. Research data were collected through a structured questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts; scale reliability of the questionnaire was approved through a pilot study. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that the norm activation model, the theory of reasoned action, and a model integrating the two can predict 32, 42, and 47%, respectively, of changes in farmers' intention toward performing climate-change adaptation ac...
Understanding farmers' risk perception to drought vulnerability in Balochistan, Pakistan
2021
Frequent occurrence of drought is a major challenge to the farmers in the drought prone district of Balochistan province, Pakistan. The agricultural communities are facing threat to agricultural production and livestock due to socioeconomic drought in the study area. The Socioeconomic drought refers to the conditions in which water supply flops sustaining water demand, resulting in adverse effects on society, economy and environment. The intensity of drought impacts is normally analyzed through meteorological, agricultural and hydrological indices. However, this paper presents a study based on interviews to analyze farmer's risk perceptions, attitude and awareness towards socioeconomic drought and risks associated with it. The study relies on a survey of 265 farm households, following a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Results of the study revealed that farmers perceived a continuous variability in climate for the last two decades and identified drought as the most prevalent disaster in the region. Economic reliance on agriculture and livestock, abolishment of surface water resources, depletion of groundwater and insufficient supply of electricity has further increased their vulnerability to drought. Reduction in agriculture and livestock production as well as loss of employment were the immediate economic impacts of the socioeconomic drought in the study area. Social impacts such as migration to other places, increase in social crimes, drop out of schoolchildren and impacts on health and festivals were also reported. The environmental impacts included constant increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall intensity and non-climatic factors. Understanding of farmer's risk perception to drought vulnerability may contribute in assisting policy makers for the most appropriate intervention strategies.
Determinants of drought risk coping mechanisms among the farmers of Northern region of Bangladesh
Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, 2019
Drought is a major constraint on agricultural production and livelihood in the northwestern region of Bangladesh. An understanding of the effects of drought and farmers' coping mechanisms is essential in designing technological and policy interventions for effective drought mitigation. The current study investigates the impacts of drought, examines farmers' coping strategies for drought induced crop failure and the determinants of their mechanism choices by employing both quantitative and qualitative approach. Multiple data sources, including semi-structured interview survey with 218 randomly selected farmers; and four focus group discussions with farmers, local leaders, NGO workers, and government officials were used to capture various aspects of drought risks and coping practices. 'Multinomial logit' model was adopted to analyze the factors affecting the decision of coping strategies in response to drought. Results of farm household survey data indicates that the respondents experienced 3.15 droughts on an average in last five years which affected about 15 percent of their crop land and resulted more than 17 percent crop loss per year. Focus group discussions confirm that farmers followed various traditional ex ante and ex post coping strategies in order to avoid crop loss and minimize livelihood constraints. The coping mechanisms mostly adopted by farmers among others were borrowing money, cultivating less water consuming crops and cutting meals. Findings of multinomial logistic regression model reveal that the environment determinant of the choices of coping options was frequency of drought and main socioeconomic determinants of coping choices were crop loss due to drought and land holding systems.
Climate, 2019
Abstract: In The Gambia, climate change has affected, and continues to affect, the agriculture sector. Thus, there is a need to develop and understand effective agricultural adaptation policies. The present study used protection motivation theory to describe farmers’ adoption of climate change adaptation measures in the Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in eight communities of the region. A transect walk was conducted, followed by a survey of farmers (n = 283). Perception data collected referred back to the past 20 years, with stated implementation addressing current adaptation practices. Results showed that the perception variables, namely, severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers, were significantly correlated with protection motivation, while protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique were strongly correlated. Structural equation modeling confirmed the mediation role of protection motivation between farmers’ “stated implementation” of adaptation measures and their perception of climate variability. A decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, and a decrease of the length of the growing season are all factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation and farmers’ vulnerability are factors that prevent implantation of adaptation measures. This study suggested that farmers’ resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be subsidized in order to make them more accessible to farmers.
Drought Risk and Its Perception by Farmers
Selected Papers (part of ERAZ conference collection), 2019
The purpose of this research is to investigate the cognitive perception of risk among Polish farmers and the factors which have an impact on this perception. Statistical analysis and logit models were applied for analysing the representative poll taken in February and March 2019 in Poland (N=200). Farmers' risk perception is dominated by the subjective factors (average loss caused by drought in the previous year, frequency of other types of impact of drought, catastrophic potential of drought risk, immediacy of effect, the degree to which the risk is known to science, number of farms susceptible to drought, trust in experts' assessment of drought, trust in the media informing about drought, age and level of education) to a much higher extent than by the objective ones (monthly income, specialising in plant output, high-cost crops, the share of income from farming in the whole income).
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2016
In The Gambia, climate change has affected, and continues to affect, the agriculture sector. Thus, there is a need to develop and understand effective agricultural adaptation policies. The present study used protection motivation theory to describe farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measures in the Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in eight communities of the region. A transect walk was conducted, followed by a survey of farmers (n = 283). Perception data collected referred back to the past 20 years, with stated implementation addressing current adaptation practices. Results showed that the perception variables, namely, severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers, were significantly correlated with protection motivation, while protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique were strongly correlated. Structural equation modeling confirmed the mediation role of protection motivation between farmers' "stated implementation" of adaptation measures and their perception of climate variability. A decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, and a decrease of the length of the growing season are all factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent implantation of adaptation measures. This study suggested that farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be subsidized in order to make them more accessible to farmers.
Drought Vulnerability Assessment: The Case of Wheat Farmers in Western Iran
2012
Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah