Asean-India and Asean-Korea Fta: Global Trade Analysis Project (original) (raw)
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Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade in East Asia
2015
The number of bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia has increased rapidly after the 2000s behind the world trend of RTAs. Many studies tackled the challenge of figuring out the impact of FTAs in this region by applying various methodologies. The first half of this paper reviews empirical studies of ex-post evaluation of FTAs in East Asia. A look at earlier studies on the impact of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (hereafter AFTA), the first regional FTA in this region revealed that few studies found robust trade creation effects of AFTA in the 1990s. However, since the 2000s, several studies using detailed trade and tariff data on products or sectors indicate that tariff elimination under AFTA promoted regional trade among ASEAN countries. Recent studies also show tariff elimination is not necessarily the most important measure to promote trade in goods in the case of AFTA. Liberalisation measures-such as reduction of non-tariff measures, trade facilitation and coordination of rules of origin, and improvement of FTA usability-are more important measures to facilitate trade between members other than tariff elimination. Likewise, with regard to bilateral FTAs in East Asia, some ex-post evaluation studies show that these FTAs positively impact trade at some extent. These studies show that the positive impacts are brought not only by tariff elimination under the FTAs but also by other liberalisation measures. The latter half of this paper discusses a basic empirical analysis on the impact of five ASEAN+1 FTAs which have not yet been sufficiently investigated because of shortage of data. We found that trade creation effects of ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and ASEAN-Korea FTA (AKFTA) appear in industrial supplies and capital goods between members. Also, trade in consumption goods is facilitated under ACFTA. On the other hand, the impact of ASEAN-Japan FTA (AJCEP) is not revealed in many cases. These results suggest that these regional FTAs potentiate the positive impact on trade when production and sales networks among members have already been developed. At the same time, the newer FTAs whose members are the same as precedent FTAs should set tariff elimination and other liberalisation measures at more liberalised level than precedent FTAs. From the perspective of effectiveness, the newer regional FTA in this region, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, needs to have a higher level of liberalisation and more inexpensive procedures for members to utilize said FTA than the existing ASEAN+1 FTAs in this region.
2018
ASEAN is one of dynamic and fast growing economic regionalism. ASEAN has shown rapid growth in trade liberalization with the free trade agreement (FTA), established with China Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of the free trade agreement between ASEAN-China (ACFTA), ASEAN-Korea (AKFTA), ASEAN-Japan (AJCEP), ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand (AANZFTA). The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9 are applied with the partial and full liberalization scenarios. The GTAP simulations results shows that ACFTA provides a greater positive impact than the other FTAs for each region. In the long run, the welfare of each region has increased, the trade balance has decreased, the volume of exports and imports has increased.
Reassessing the Impact of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement
Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 2014
(etrru) pada tahun 2009 memberi isyarat bahawa aliran perdagangan antara ASEAN dan India mempunyai potensi untuk dipertingkatkan. Kajian yang lepas menumpu kepada kesan kebajikan perjanjian tersebut serta kesan terhadap perdagangan secora keseluruhan, khususnya dalam b'arang pertanian. Tujuan pertama kajian ini ialah untuk membanding kesan AIFTA terhadap eksport barang perkilangan dari ASEAN ke India dan dari India ke ASEAN. Tujuan kedua ialah untuk menentu kepentingan relatifantara liberalisasi tarif yang dijadualkan dalam AIFrA denganfaktor lain yang menyumbang kepada eksport barang perkilangan antara ASEAN dan India dan sebalihtya. Kajian ini menggunakan model graviti sebab model tersebut mebenarkan pembolehubah lain sebagai pembolehubah kawalan untukmengukur salah satu perubahan dalam perdagangan negara sebagai hasil persetujuan tersebut. Penemuan utama kajian ini menunjukkan bahawa ASEAN mendapatfaedah yang lebih berbanding dengan India daripada liberalisqsi tarif dalam persetujuan ini. Namun, kesan liberalisasi tarif terhadap eksport perkilangan antara ASEAN dan India adalah lebih kecil secara relative berbanding dengan faktor lain, khususnya kos perdagangan. Justeru itu, AIFTA perlu memperkukuhkan tindakan yang khusus untuk fasilitasi perdagangan dalam persetujuan ini untuk meningkatkan elcsport perkilangan dari ,qsz,ql| ke India dan sebalilatya. Kata kunci: ASEAN-India (tnrt); model graviti; tarif; ASEAN-|; India; eksport; barang perkilangan ABSTMCT The ratifcation of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) in 2009 signals a potentialfor increased tradefiows between ASEAN and India. Previous studies havefocussed mainly on the welfare impact of the agreement and its impact on overall trade, especially trade in agricultural products. Thefrst objective ofthis study seeks to compare the impact ofthe urrl on the exports ofmanufactured goods from ASEAN to India and vice versa. The second is to ascertain the relative importance of the scheduled tariff liberalization in the AIFTA compared with other contributory factors in the export of mandactured goods between ASEAN and India. The study uses an augmented gravity model as this type of model allowsfor the control of other trade related variables and to quantifu any changes in a country's trade due to the agreement. The mainfindings in this study indicate that ASEAN gains morefrom the scheduled tariff liberalization in this agreement compared to India. However, the impact of tariff liberalization on the exports of manufactured goods from ASEAN and India with each other is relatively smaller compared to other contributory factors, especially trade costs. The AIFTA will have to strengthen specifc trade facilitation measures in the agreement in order to increase exports of manufactutred goods from ASEAN to India and vice versa.
Journal of Economic Integration, 2010
The ASEAN+3 proposal has attracted attention in Asia. We argue that a free trade agreement (FTA) for ASEAN+3 is beneficial to all member countries due to three factors: (i) existing and expected vertical foreign direct investment linkage between Japan/Korea and ASEAN member countries, (ii) high expected growth rate of the Chinese economy, and (iii) the economic diversity among members of ASEAN+3 group.
2011
Expanding trade with East Asia’s “Big Three” economic giants—the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea—offers a new potential source of growth for ASEAN in the post-global-crisis period. In fact, ASEAN has been actively pursuing trade liberalization with the Big Three. The central objective of this paper is to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the different permutations of ASEAN’s free trade agreements (FTAs) with the Big Three (e.g., ASEAN–PRC, ASEAN–Japan, ASEAN–Republic of Korea, and ASEAN+3). Our qualitative analysis is based on the theory of economic integration, and our quantitative analysis is based on a CGE model. The two types of analyses both suggest that an ASEAN+3 FTA would deliver the largest benefits for the region.
THE NEW WAVE OF FTAs in ASIA: WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO ASEAN, CHINA AND INDIA
This paper explores some of the main motivations behind the recent wave of trade pacts in Asia. The paper also highlights some genuine concerns regarding the new FTAs. The paper then moves from the general to the specific, and focuses on ASEAN --which appears to be fast becoming the "hub" or centre of FTA activity --and its expanding economic linkages with China and India, the two most populous and dynamic economies in the world. Specific attention will be paid to ASEAN-China and ASEAN-India trade relations and the proposed FTAs between them, as well as the consequences of the new regionalism for intra-ASEAN economic integration.
The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: How Effective?
A careful assessment of intra-regional and extra-regional ASEAN trade volumes from 1970 to 2010 reveals that there has been no significant change during the pre- and post-AFTA era. However, researchers working on the effectiveness of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement have consistently reported positive trade creationary effects of AFTA. By reassessing the impact of AFTA through the Balassa method of estimating trade creation and diversion, and applying it to traditional gravity estimates, we find that (a) while ASEAN countries have spent more money per dollar earned on foreign goods in the post-AFTA period, this is generally true for all countries in the world, and (b) being a small region with significant historic trade ties, ASEAN, as a whole has always traded more amongst themselves, when compared to the world average, and this fact has been misrepresented as the trade creationary effects of AFTA. By comparing the coefficients of the regionalism dummies of ASEAN, within the scope of the gravity model, we find that there has been no significant change in these coefficients, when the sample is divided into the pre-and post-AFTA years. We thus conclude that the free trade agreement in question has had no significant impact on intra-ASEAN trade.
Let’s talk about the Free Trade Agreement (FTA): The five ASEAN members highlighting Indonesia
2018
This paper attempts to assess the role of FTA (Free Trade Agreement) in enhancing both the trade and investment in both levels of the country and the region. This paper chooses Indonesia as the country and five ASEAN member states (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam) as the regional case of study. This paper uses net export & intra-trade and FDI inflows & intra-FDI as the dependent variables for trade and investment respectively. Period of analysis is 25 years from 1992 to 2016. This paper found that FTA utilization is effective to increase trade and investment at both the country and regional level with certain control variables. It found that ASEAN is ready to move from intra-regional trade to intra-regional investment. Therefore, the ASEAN Economic Community is on the right track and in the right time for ASEAN. At the bilateral level, this study proposed that the net export surplus is the aim for the negotiation to the lower income per capita trading partner...