Contribution of international air transport at the entrance of COVID-19 in Brazil (original) (raw)
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The Influence of Passenger Traffic in Brazilian Airports on Increased Cases of COVID-19
2021
The paper aims to evidence the impact of passenger traffic in the airports of major Brazilian tourist destinations and its relation to the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, the study performed a qualitative analysis based on secondary data obtained from official websites of regulatory authorities and a quantitative analysis through the use of multiple regression, cluster and discriminant analysis in order to measure a cause-and-effect relation between the variables observed. The tourist destinations addressed are the capitals of Brazilian federal states, the national capital (Brasilia), and the cities of Campinas, Foz do Iguacu, and Balneario Camboriu - the choice was made based on the cities with the highest number of airport passenger traffic. The results indicate a strong correlation between passenger traffic in Brazilian capitals and the spread of COVID-19 cases.
Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil
PeerJ, 2020
There is evidence that COVID-19, the disease caused by the betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is sensitive to environmental conditions. However, such conditions often correlate with demographic and socioeconomic factors at larger spatial extents, which could confound this inference. We evaluated the effect of meteorological conditions (temperature, solar radiation, air humidity and precipitation) on 292 daily records of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 27 Brazilian capital cities during the 1st month of the outbreak, while controlling for an indicator of the number of tests, the number of arriving flights, population density, proportion of elderly people and average income. Apart from increasing with time, the number of confirmed cases was mainly related to the number of arriving flights and population density, increasing with both factors. However, after accounting for these effects, the disease was shown to be temperature sensitive: there were more cases in colder cities and days, and cases accumulated faster at lower temperatures. Our best estimate indicates that a 1 C increase in temperature has been associated with a decrease in confirmed cases of 8%. The quality of the data and unknowns limit the analysis, but the study reveals an urgent need to understand more about the environmental sensitivity of the disease to predict demands on health services in different regions and seasons.
Scientific Reports
Human travel fed the worldwide spread of COVID-19, but it remains unclear whether the volume of incoming air passengers and the centrality of airports in the global airline network made some regions more vulnerable to earlier and higher mortality. We assess whether the precocity and severity of COVID-19 deaths were contingent on these measures of air travel intensity, adjusting for differences in local non-pharmaceutical interventions and pre-pandemic structural characteristics of 502 sub-national areas on five continents in April–October 2020. Ordinary least squares (OLS) models of precocity (i.e., the timing of the 1st and 10th death outbreaks) reveal that neither airport centrality nor the volume of incoming passengers are impactful once we consider pre-pandemic demographic characteristics of the areas. We assess severity (i.e., the weekly death incidence of COVID-19) through the estimation of a generalized linear mixed model, employing a negative binomial link function. Results ...
Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections
PeerJ, 2020
The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine, led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19 on its exponential phase. We found that population size and global connections, represented by countries’ importance in the global air transportation network, are the main explanations for the early growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate and socioeconomics had no significant effect in this big picture analysis. Our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in warmer and humid countries should be taken very carefully, risking to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rate...
Correlation between Air and Urban Travelling with New Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 A Case Study
2020
COVID-19 which has spread in Iran from February 19, 2020, has infected 202,584 people and killed 9,507 people until June 20, 2020. The immediate suggested solution to prevent the spread of this virus was to avoid traveling around. In this study, the correlation between traveling between cities with new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran is demonstrated. The data, used in the study, consisted of the daily inter-state traffic, air traffic data, and daily new COVID-19 confirmed cases. The data is used to train a regression model and voting was used to show the highest correlation between travels made between cities and new cases of COVID-19. Although the available data was very coarse and there was no detail of inner-city commute, an accuracy of 81% was achieved showing a positive correlation between the number of inter-state travels and the new cases of COVID-19. Consequently, the result suggests that one of the best ways to avoid the spread of the virus is limiting or eliminating tr...
2021
Human travel fed the worldwide spread of Covid-19, but it remains unclear whether the volume of incoming air passengers and the centrality of airports in the global airline network made some regions more vulnerable to earlier and higher mortality. We assess whether the precocity and severity of Covid-19 deaths were contingent on these measures of air travel intensity, controlling for differences in local non-pharmaceutical interventions and pre-pandemic structural characteristics of 503 sub-national areas on five continents in April-July 2020. OLS models of precocity (i.e., the timing of the 1st and 10th death outbreaks) reveal that the volume of incoming passengers and the centrality of airports were not impactful once we controlled for local characteristics. We model severity (i.e., the weekly death incidence of Covid-19) with both GLMM and OLS regressions. Results suggest that death incidence was insensitive to the number of passengers and airport centrality, with no substantial ...
2020
O uso de sistemas de transporte publico e apontado como possivel vetor de transmissao de virus durante epidemias. Nesse contexto, e objetivo deste artigo analisar a correlacao espacial entre os usuarios do sistema de transporte publico e os casos da COVID-19, por meio de um estudo para Recife (PE). Utilizando-se da analise espacial, foi calculado o indice I de Moran global e local, e foram estimados modelos de regressao global e geograficamente ponderados, para os meses de marco a junho de 2020, considerando o bairro como unidade espacial de analise. Os resultados indicaram correlacao espacial global e local entre as variaveis consideradas. Ainda, o numero de usuarios do transporte publico e uma variavel que influenciou no numero de casos de COVID-19, principalmente em abril, maio e junho. Por fim, o sistema de transporte publico pode nao ter sido o unico fator que contribuiu para a disseminacao da COVID-19 no Recife, visto o elevado numero de bairros sem indicador de associacao esp...
Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Efficiency of Brazilian Domestic Air Transportation (Atena Editora), 2023
The Covid-19 pandemic has given rise to broad challenges in the air transportation sector by leading to the closure of borders and imposing restrictive measures taken immediately. At the same time, Brazil struggled to contain and better prepare to deal with the consequences of the pandemic. Given the context, this work aims to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on the efficiency of air transportation sector and evaluating the prospects of its recovery compared to the pre-pandemic level. The present study makes use of Data Envelopment Analysis methodology seeking to identify the technical efficiency of both passenger and cargo flights. The methodology was applied by adopting relevant input and output indicators. We confirmed the negative impacts on the sector suffered from the pandemic. Cargo flights in Brazilian domestic market experienced a larger loss than passenger flights. Moreover, the study shows the Brazilian market did not perform ideally to prevent impacts of the second wave of Covid-19. For governments and policy makers, they need to carefully consider the effects of policies to be implemented. Our research also provides decision-making factors to organizations and companies related to business performance.