Predicting Refugee Flows from Ukraine with an Approach to Big (Crisis) Data: A New Opportunity for Refugee and Humanitarian Studies (original) (raw)

The Influx of War Refugees from Ukraine – Recommendations for Poland Based on Turkey’s Experiences

Studia Sieci Uniwersytetów Pogranicza

Goal – the presentation of analysis results regarding the numerical comparison of migration crises caused by refugee displacements from Syria and Ukraine and the identification of challenges faced by Poland based on Turkey’s experiences related to the mass influx of refugees. Research methodology – the examination of Poland’s and Turkey’s official state documents, a review of articles and existing studies, the analysis of statistical data on the flows of persons from the following databases: the UNHCR, the UN Population Division, data from the Polish Chancellery of the Prime Minister and the Office for Foreigners. The research methods used also include synthesis and inference. Score/results – although the Syrian and Ukrainian migration crises show various differences, Poland can certainly draw on Turkey’s proven tools and avoid solutions having hindered integration and contributed to the exclusion of Syrian refugees. However, Turkey’s and Poland’s experiences represent evidence for ...

Assessing EU Readiness to Manage Ukrainian Refugees: From Openness to Legal Limitation

Danube, 2023

As per October 19, 2022, seven million people had fled to the closest border, because of Russia invasion. Twitter provides information on potential migration issues. This research was conducted by using qualitative Social Network Analysis (SNA) and doctrinal law analysis to measure the openness of the European Union (EU) public and identify the legal limitation which may happen in the process. The SNA is performed by utilizing 7,171 tweets with the hashtags #immigration and #ukrainerefugees obtained between February 27 and March 3, 2022. Based on data analysis, it discovered that most Twitter users in the EU had a high level of receptivity toward Ukrainian refugees, as evidenced by the 3776 positive sentiments. However, found that the duration of protection and refugee determination process are two examples of legal limitations, which threaten the refugees. Then, a further legal framework is required to guarantee the protection of Ukrainian refugees.

Ukrainian Refugees in Germany: Evidence From a Large Representative Survey

Comparative Population Studies

This study describes the first wave of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey on Ukrainian Refugees in Germany, a unique panel dataset based on over 11,000 interviews conducted between August and October 2022. The aim of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey is to provide a data-infrastructure for theory-driven and evidence-based research on various aspects of integration among Ukrainian refugees in Germany, the second most important destination country in the EU after Poland, hosting over a million people who arrived in Germany shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based on the survey, this study also provides first insights into demographic, educational, linguistic, occupational, and social characteristics of this population. The analyses revealed that the refugee population comprised mostly young and educated individuals, with a significant proportion of females without partners and female-headed separated families. While German language skills were limited, about half of Ukrai...

(2022) Opinion: The War in Ukraine: A Migration Crisis Like No Other

Opinion, Policy Center for the New South, 2022

As of March 3, 2022, one week into the Russian invasion, over 1 million refugees (2.3% of the Ukrainian population) have fled Ukraine to neighboring European countries, notably Poland, as well as Hungary, Moldova, and Slovakia[1]. While the sheer flow of refugees is poised to generate the largest migration crisis in Europe since World War II, the response of European countries is substantially different from the one caused by the Syrian refugee crisis of 2015 - 1 million refugees in just a few months - or concerns over a massive influx of Afghan refugees following the withdrawal of Western forces and Taliban takeover August 2021.

Visualization and Analysis of Refugees' Big Data

Recent years had seen influx of refugees due to wars and other natural crises worldwide. According to Amnesty International, till 2015, over four million refugees have fled the conflict in Syria, with the majority now in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Turkey host the largest number, more than 3.5 million refugees in 2017, with the country spending $25 billion on supporting them. The world today is more connected than ever before. In addition to data that is generated by refugees, other agencies like the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHRC) are creating Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal like the Syria Regional Refugee Response for making data available to researchers and humanitarian agencies. The World bank and many countries like Canada has recently adopted an “Open Data” initiative that provides some data on immigration related issues. This provided extensive and almost on-demand data on the Syrian refugee arrivals. Other Non-government organization apply the principles of open data sharing for providing free, up-to-date maps for relief organizations. With the advances in machine learning analysis of big data, the goal is to provide an insight into the fast-changing data and make data-driven decisions and predictions. This paper introduces the history and the future of data analytics and visualization in refugees’ studies. For example, a key challenge with the growing volume of measured data in the refugee data is the preparation of the data for analysis. Data can be stored in multiple locations, in multiple formats, and with multiple time frames. The paper considers the collection of data sets from multiple sources and look for trends and show how conclusions can be extracted from the data to help decision making.

Correlating Refugee Border Crossings with Internet Search Data

2018

Can Internet search data be used as a proxy to predict refugee mobility? The soaring refugee death toll in Europe creates an urgent need for novel tools that monitor and forecast refugee flows. This study investigates the correlation between refugee mobility data and Internet search data from Google Trends. Google Trends is a freely accessible tool that provides access to Internet search data by analyzing a sample of all web queries. In our study, we surveyed refugees in Greece (entry point) and in Finland (destination point) to identify what search queries they had used during their travel. Next, we conducted time series analysis on Google search data to investigate whether interest in user-defined search queries correlated with the levels of refugee arrival data recorded by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Results indicate that the reuse of internet search data considerably improves the predictive power of the models.

TWO YEARS OF REFUGEE CRISIS 2022-2024 -POLICY AND DECISIONS

Public Policy and Institutional Change in the Middle of Conflict (ISSN 2942-8904), 2024

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered one of the largest refugee crises in recent history, with millions fleeing to neighboring countries, including Germany. At the end of 2021, before the war, around 155,000 Ukrainian citizens lived in Germany (Destatis 2022). According to the EU Parliament, in December 2023, around 6.3 million refugees were recorded as refugees in EU states (Rakic, 2024). This article examines the influx of Ukrainian refugees into Germany, focusing on the legislative frameworks, statistical trends, government support, and integration measures. By exploring the theoretical and legislative background, the aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and responses associated with this humanitarian crisis. The article focuses on the humanitarian and legislative efforts in the Free State of Thuringia.

Ukrainian Migration Crisis Caused by the War

Studia Europejskie - Studies in European Affairs

The open Russian military invasion of Ukraine supported by Belarus launched in February 2022 has changed the usual state of affairs and caused the economic, humanitarian, and migration crises. Several millions of Ukrainian people had to move to safer regions of the country, and a significant share of them (mostly women, children, and elderly people) have left abroad in search of safer living conditions, which has become the worst migration crisis since the World War II. Many Ukrainian citizens have been forced to move to Russia. Poland hosts the largest number of Ukrainian citizens among the EU countries (about 60% of all refugees), much less left for Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany. Almost every European country helps Ukraine in some way or another, hosting its residents and providing asylum. The aim of this article is to investigate the tendencies and changes of forced migration in Ukraine in the conditions of war. The collective protection of displaced persons allows imme...

Ukrainian Refugees in Germany: A Hidden Conflict of Interests is Inevitable but Solvable

Einblicke/Insights Forschungs-Highlights der Zentren für Deutschland- und Europastudien, 2024

The full-scale war that Russia after more than 1.5 years still hasn’t announced to Ukraine has changed the lives of Ukrainians forever. Since the end of February 2022, the peaceful country in the heart of Europe and its citizens have witnessed at large scale the ugly deaths, horrific injuries, unimaginable suffering and unbelievable destruction of numerous cities, towns and villages. There hasn’t been anything like this on the European continent since World War II. Moreover, the Russian invasion has forced millions of Ukrainians to flee their homes in search of salvation, including abroad. According to recent estimations, Europe took the majority of them – 5.8 million out of 6.2 recorded globally. In this context, Germany’s role can hardly be overestimated. Until now, the country has provided shelter for almost 1.1 million Ukrainians. Among EU countries only Poland can boast more – 1.6 million.