Van groene welvaartsmaten tot een nationale maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyse (original) (raw)
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Kankyō shisutemu kenkyū, 1991
In order to assess the implications of the global warming for the future human society, it is necessary to analyze the long-term impacts which may be caused on the world economy and the environment. For this purpose this study presents a world dynamics model which predicts the future world development under the constraints imposed by energy, resource and environment. In so doing, it is especially important to examine the uncertainties involed in the prediction. For analyzing such uncertainties pertinent to the prediction of the global warming, this study adopts Verhulst's type growth model to project the future growth of the fossil fuel consumption. The growth rate parameter in Verhulst equation is treated as a stochastic variable subject to random changes. Then the changes in the future projection of the average temperature of the earth is examined in relation to the changes in the fuel consumption paths. Then model calculations are made on the interaction among population, energy, economic production(GNP), food production, land use, forestry management and other factors. Changes in the future growth paths are examined by altering the parameter values involved in the model. Based on these calculations, policy options for responding to global warming is discussed and their environmental and economic implications are examined. KEY WORDS; global warming, climatic change, carbon dioxide, sea level rise, world dynamic model, sustainable development