Analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions impacts on COVID-19 pandemic in Iran (original) (raw)
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COVID-19 infection control parameters in Iran: an epidemiological modeling
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arXiv: Populations and Evolution, 2020
Modeling accurately the evolution and intervention strategies for the Covid-19 pandemic, that has now affected almost every country in the world, is a challenging problem. We present here an analysis of an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model, that takes into account the presence of aymptomatic carriers, and explore the effects of different intervention strategies such as social distancing (SD) and testing-quarantining (TQ). The two intervention strategies (SD and TQ) try to reduce the disease reproductive number ($R_0 > 1$) to a target value ($R_0^{\rm target} < 1 ),butindistinctways,whichweimplementinourmodelequations.Wefindthatforthesametargetvalue,), but in distinct ways, which we implement in our model equations. We find that for the same target value, ),butindistinctways,whichweimplementinourmodelequations.Wefindthatforthesametargetvalue,R_0^{\rm target} <1 $, TQ is more efficient in controlling the pandemic than lockdowns that only implement SD. However, for TQ to be effective, it has has to be based on contact tracing and the ratio of tests/per day to the number of new cases/per day has to be scaled with the mean...
The Required Confronting Approaches Efficacy and Time to Control Iranian COVID-19 Outbreak
Archives of Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2020
The ongoing devastating epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran and the evolving public health situation is very concerning. We have developed a deterministic epidemiological SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to quantify the required time and efficacy to bring the COVID-19 outbreak under control in Iran. Our results showed that the efficacy of COVID-19 confronting strategies on Feb 29th and March 9th were at 0.5 and 0.7, respectively owing to the relative equivalence number of infected cases estimated by the model and national officially reported cases. Therefore, to control the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran we strongly recommend maintaining the effectiveness of interventions at 0.7 or more at least for the next 4-6 weeks. Because the COVID-19 declining statistics over the next few days or weeks do not mean the definitive control of the outbreak.
ACTA MEDICA IRANICA, 2021
This study aimed to evaluate the effect of macro-level health policies on COVID-19 outbreak control in Iran. This was a descriptive-analytical study of the applied time series performed on April 19, 2020. The effect of four macro-health interventions, including reducing overcrowding, social distancing, limitation of high-risk economic activities, and active case detection, was examined. The Vector autoregression (VAR) was used to investigate the effect of the interventions. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) was used to ensure the time stability of the time series and the existence of a unit-root. To analyzing data and estimation VAR models, STATA software was used. P of less than 0.1 was considered significant. The increase in the number of cases with two days’ lag had a positive and significant effect on increasing the number of new cases of the COVID-19 (C=0.176, P=0.097). Adopting an overcrowding reduction policy with both 2-day lags (c=0.095, P=0.066) and 4-day lags (c=0.31...
A SEIRD Model for Control of COVID-19: Case of Azerbaijan
SHS Web of Conferences
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Projection of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran: A Modeling Study
Archives of Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2022
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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling study
SAGE Open Medicine
Objective: This study aimed to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic in Oman. Methods: Data were retrieved from published national surveillance data between 24 February and 30 June 2020. To show the impact of the Government introduced public health intervention early in the epidemic, we used a simple disease-transmission model equation of the 2019-n CoV epidemic. Results: From all confirmed cases, the rates of intensive care unit admission were 4.56% (1824). We estimated an R0 of 3.11 with no intervention would result in nearly the entire population of Oman being infected within 65 days. A reduction of the R0 to 1.51 provided an estimated 89,056 confirmed cases, with 167 deaths or 0.4% mortality by June 30 with a requirement of 4052 intensive care unit beds. The current scenario (24 February to 30 June 2020) indicates an R0 of 1.41, resulting in 40,070 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 176 deaths and 69% of confirmed cases recovered. Conclusion: In e...
Assessing the Efficiency of Different Control Strategies for the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Epidemic
arXiv: Populations and Evolution, 2020
The goal of this work is to analyse the effects of control policies for the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Brazil. This is done by considering an age-structured SEIR model with a quarantine class and two types of controls. The first one studies the sensitivity with regard to the parameters of the basic reproductive number R0 which is calculated by the next generation method. The second one evaluates different quarantine strategies by comparing their relative total number of deaths.
Analysis of Effectiveness of Quarantine Measures in Controlling COVID-19
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