Cuba After Castro: Implications of Change (original) (raw)
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2006
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Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments
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New America Foundation Papers, 2011
This report explores the historic reform process currently underway in Cuba. It looks first at the political context in which the VI Cuban Communist Party Congress took place, including the Cuban government's decision to release a significant number of political prisoners as part of a new dialogue with the Cuban Catholic Church. It then analyzes Cuba's nascent processes of economic reform and political liberalization. To conclude, it discusses the challenges and opportunities these processes pose for U.S policy toward Cuba.
2008
The Brookings Institution Cuba Study Group Contents 2-About the poll 3-When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? 5-When Fidel Castro was replaced by Raul Castro as Cuba's president, how do you think that affected the possibility for real political change in Cuba? 7-Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on sending money to Cuba for Cuban Americans? 8-Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for Cuban Americans? 9-What about for all Americans? Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for all Americans? 10-Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all? 12-Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba? 13-Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba? 14-Should the U.S. government and the Cuban government engage in direct talks about migration and other critical questions? 15-Are you a U.S. citizen? 16-Are you registered to vote? 17-Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other party? 18-In the presidential election, did you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama, or did you not vote for either? 19-In voting for the US Congress House of Representatives, did you vote for the republican or democrat in your district, or was the representative already chosen for your district? 20-Full questionnaire About the poll This survey was done by the Institute for Public Opinion Research of Florida International University. 800 randomly selected Cuban-American respondents were polled in Miami-Dade County, Florida. 500 interviews were done to land-line phones and 300 to cell phones. The survey was done in Spanish and English with all bilingual interviewers. Interviews were completed on December 1, 2008. The margin of error for the overall poll is plus or minus 3.6%. The results reported here are from the tabulations of single response questions. Results from questions involving multiple responses and coding of open-end responses will be released on
The US-Cuba System and the Key Mechanisms of Regime Change After Castro
The proximity of the United States of America is surely perceived as a threat by many Cubans. The regime's propaganda is very active in this respect. Yet there is no need to worry much about such a world power–provided it remains democratic. One has to be apprehensive primarily about totalitarian states. Vaclav Havel, in an exchange of letters with Cuban dissident, Oswaldo Paya 1
After Fidel: The US–Cuba System and the Key Mechanisms of Regime Change
International Politics, 2008
This paper critically examines the different ways that analysts and policy-makers have assessed the future shape of the Cuban regime following the future passing of its long-time revolutionary leader, Fidel Castro. Certainly, from a social science perspective, the future of Cuba after Fidel Castro is open. On the other hand, different, often mutually inconsistent scenarios for regime transition suggest that Cuba's future is over-determined. Both features of social reality-openness and over-determination-create space for visions, ideologies, strategies, and other normative interventions designed to impose a particular cognitive and political order on social reality. While social science should try to include such 'subjective factors' in its objective account, it must maintain a critical distance from the normative closure and hopeful predictions that ideologies and strategies of necessity imply. Based on an analytical distinction between relatively stable systems and rapidly changing systems, this paper identifies and goes on to discuss the major systems of primary relevance for Cuba's future.
Cuba: The Challenges of Change
Very few countries in the world have been as dependent for their development -or the lack of it-on external actors as Cuba. Since its revolution in 1959 the country has been suffering from the impact of international politics inspired by economic or geopolitical factors. The development of its post-revolutionary society and the survival of its model have basically depended on the support of or its denial by the two Cold War superpowers. At the same time the Cuban revolutionary regime has tried to project itself externally and to influence the international power balance by using quite unconventional measures. In the post-Cold War period other external actors, principally Venezuela,