Analysis of Birth Interval in Bangladesh Using Product-Limit Estimate and Accelerated Failure Time Regression Model (original) (raw)

Determinants of Birth Spacing and Effect of Birth Spacing on Fertility in Bangladesh

Dhaka University Journal of Science, 2013

For the last few decades, demographers have directed considerable attention towards the study of human fertility through the analysis of birth interval data. This study examines the covariates of birth intervals and the effect of increased birth intervals on current fertility level in Bangladesh. Using the data of BDHS 2007, Cox Proportional Hazards model is used to determine the covariates of birth intervals. Mother's age at first birth, previous birth interval, mother's education and working status, mass media exposure appeared as the significant determinants of birth intervals. To estimate the tempo effect of birth interval on current fertility of Bangladesh, Bongaarts and Feeney method (1998) has been used. The tempo adjusted TFR was found to be 3.85, while the conventional TFR was 2.73 for the year 2005-06. This demonstrates that an increased effort to widen the spacing of births can effectively reduce the level of fertility in the future.

Determinants and consequences of short birth interval in rural Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 2014

Background: Short birth intervals are known to have negative effects on pregnancy outcomes. We analysed data from a large population surveillance system in rural Bangladesh to identify predictors of short birth interval and determine consequences of short intervals on pregnancy outcomes. Methods: The study was conducted in three districts of Bangladesh -Bogra, Moulavibazar and Faridpur (population 282,643, 54,668 women of reproductive age). We used data between January 2010 and June 2011 from a key informant surveillance system that recorded all births, deaths and stillbirths. Short birth interval was defined as an interval between consecutive births of less than 33 months. Initially, risk factors of a short birth interval were determined using a multivariate mixed effects logistic regression model. Independent risk factors were selected using a priori knowledge from literature review. An adjusted mixed effects logistic regression model was then used to determine the effect of up to 21-, 21-32-, 33-44-and 45-month and higher birth-to-birth intervals on pregnancy outcomes controlling for confounders selected through a directed acyclic graph.

ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANT'S OF MARRIAGE TO FIRST BIRTH INTERVAL IN BANGLADESH

In this study an attempt has been made to examine the marriage to first birth interval and also to identify the socioeconomic , demographic and cultural factors influencing the first birth interval among married women in Bangladesh. For this purpose the present study utilized the Bangladesh Demographic and health survey (Bdhs, 2004). Birth interval is major determinant of the rates of fertility. The average marriage to first birth interval of the respondent's is observed to be 33.49 months. Independents test of chi-square and proportional hazards model are used to study the effect of selected background characteristics on first birth interval in Bangladesh. Accepted religion of respondent's all of the independent variable has strong association with first birth interval. Result from proportional hazards model reveal that respondent's education, access to mass media, age at first marriage, and use of contraception has highly significant impact on first interval excluding Rajshahi and Khulna division. Husband's education is partially significant over first birth interval and childhood place of residence has little bit connotation on first birth interval.

Determinants of different birth intervals of ever married women: Evidence from Bangladesh

Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health, 2019

Introduction: The analysis of factors affecting birth interval helps to reveal the mechanism and dynamics of fertility behavior which changes the population structure of a country. This study aims to examine the association among different socioeconomic and demographic factors with birth intervals and to identify the statistically significant factors of birth intervals. Material and methods: This study has been used latest Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2014 data based on two stage stratified sample of households. Different birth intervals have been analyzed using various statistical techniques such as Kaplan Meier estimator, log rank test, Cox proportional hazard model and Frailty model. Results: Among the ever married women, 92.40%, 76.80% and 61.60% have experienced live birth for first, second and third times, and the estimated median duration of birth intervals are 26, 46, and 58 months, respectively. Using the log rank test, this study found that region, place of residence, mothers education, partners education, contraceptive use, and mothers age are significantly associated with birth intervals. This study also considered mothers age and working status at first birth interval; mothers education, age, working status and survival status of previous child at second birth interval; mothers education, sex of household head, working status, mass media exposure, age, contraceptive use, religion, and survival status of previous child at third birth interval are protective factors in next births. Conclusions: Overall, mothers age, working status and mass media exposure are protective factors in birth intervals. To fulfill the target, government should pay attention to significant protective factors.

Fertility Transition in Bangladesh: Variants and Determinants

2021

Fertility is the actual reproduction of live births. From the 1974s to till now, the fertility rate of Bangladesh is gradually declining in different years. Also, the fertility transition in Bangladesh is declining because of many determinants. Those determinants are played a vital role in the variation of fertility. Fertility transition is being possible due to many fertility determinants along with variants in the different division by division, region by region in Bangladesh. So, the whole discussion of this paper is about the variants and determinants that are led Bangladesh through the fertility transition. Fertility: Fertility is the actual reproduction of live births, which in the appropriate sense is a biological process (JR. & Leon F. Bouvier, n.d.). It is also the natural capability to produce live birth to women. Still, births are not considered as fertility in the population science field. This doesn't mean that the women are not fecund; rather, fecundity may lead to fertility or not to be. Normally, fertility has measured the women of childbearing age that is 15 years to 49 years.

Proximate Determinants of Fertility in Bangladesh

International Quarterly of Community Health Education, 2004

Proximate determinants influence level of fertility in a society. The aim of this study were to estimate the total fertility rate (TFR) for a given level of contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and estimate the CPR, some indices and factors for achieving the target TFR. For this, data were extracted from Bangladesh contraceptive prevalence survey, Bangladesh fertility survey and Bangladesh demographic and health survey. Linear regression analysis and revised Bongaarts' models were used to estimate proximate determinants for achieving target TFR. The regression coefficient demonstrated that TFR has been decreasing while CPR increasing during the investigated period with highly negatively associated between TFR and CPR (p<0.01). The results indicate that to achieve replacement level of fertility at 2.1 births per woman it should be increased the CPR, singulate mean age at marriage, duration of breastfeeding and amenorrhea period at 68%, 20.80 years, 37 months and 2.37 months respectively.

The Role of Proximate Determinants of Fertility Transition in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has witnessed an incredible decline in fertility from the mid-1970s to early 1990s. Since then the total fertility rate (TFR) has been halted abruptly in a stagnant point, which is now a major concern to the government, researchers and the policy makers. This static situation in TFR raises questions about the factors responsible for fertility transition. This paper critically examines fertility levels, trends and the role of proximate determinants of fertility transition in Bangladesh. In ana- lyzing the major proximate determinants we applied Bongaarts model to data obtained from four nationwide demographic surveys. The contribution of each of the major proximate variables has been examined through the decomposition of TFR for the period 1989-2000 at four points by time. Our analyses clearly indicate that contraceptive practice is playing the key role in fertility decline in Bangladesh. The findings of the study provide a basis for drawing out some policy adoption and pr...

The influence of birth spacing on child survival in Bangladesh: a life table approach

World health & population, 2010

In this paper we have attempted to demonstrate the relationship between birth spacing and child survival in Bangladesh using data from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS). We used standard life table techniques to estimate the probability of child survival and appropriate spacing of births. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the covariates, along with the birth interval that has significant influence on child survival. Study results showed that the probability of child survival was much lower when the preceding birth interval was less than 12 months, and it may be also impeded by a higher birth interval. Child survival probability was highest for a preceding birth interval of 5 years; thereafter, the probability declined. Results of the logistic regression model clearly showed that preceding birth interval was an important and strongly significant factor in explaining infant and child mortality. While education, current age, breastfeeding status and...

Factors affecting the most recent fertility rates in urban-rural Bangladesh

Social science & medicine (1982), 1997

This paper reports on a study which has been undertaken using data from the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) to determine the significance of influences on the probability of birth in the year preceding the survey. In the survey a total of 11905 ever-married women of reproductive age were asked a battery of questions relating to fertility aspects of women. Variables selected in this study were grouped into demographic, socio-economic, cultural and decision-making variables. Findings from the study indicate that the mother's age, whether contraception has ever been used, the death of a child at any time, whether the woman has ever worked, religion, region of residence, and female independence are the important covariates for explaining recent fertility in Bangladesh. Models are developed for the probabilities of a woman giving birth in urban and rural areas, dependent on her demographic and socio-economic conditions. Also developed are models for contraceptive use in urban-...