Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India (original) (raw)

Global warming, climate change and its consequences are major threat for the global agriculture. The agriculture in the NorthEast region of India is supposed to more in danger due to its topographic features. Agriculture in the state of Arunachal Pradesh is dependent on rainfall and variability in rainfall due to climate change is expected to threaten the food production in future. This study examines the impact of climate change on rainfall using the trend analysis technique for the four districts of Arunachal Pradesh. For this purpose temporal trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were detected using nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at 5% significance level. The daily time series rainfall data for the period 1971-2007 were analyzed statistically for each district separately. The results of Mann Kendall test showed decreasing trend in annual mean rainfall in east Siang, upper Siang and lowers Dibang valley and no trend in the west Siang district over the period of 1971-2007. In cas...

The northeast region (NER) of India covers an area of 0.26 million km2. This region is one of the highest rainfall-receiving regions on the planet. Consequently, it has huge water and hydropower potential and analysis of rainfall and temperature trends would be of interest to water and energy planners. Trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall and temperature on the subdivision and regional scale for the NER were examined in this study. Trend analysis of rainfall data series for 1871 – 2008 did not show any clear trend for the region as a whole, although there are seasonal trends for some seasons and for some hydro-meteorological subdivisions. Similar analysis for temperature data showed that all the four temperature variables (maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures and temperature range) had rising trend. Notably for the post-monsoon season, the Sen’s estimator of slope (°C/year) was 0.019, 0.011, and 0.015 for the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, respectively.

In this study, an investigation has been made to study the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation at 45 districts of the Madhya Pradesh (MP), India over the period of 102 years (1901–2002) on annual and seasonal basis. Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator test were used to detect monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time on annual and seasonal basis. The cumulative deviations and Pettit-Mann–Whitney test were applied to detect possible change points. Change in percentage was discussed in terms of percentage change over mean. To explore the spatial distribution of trends, linear regression value of each station was interpolated using ArcGIS 9.3 on seasonal and annual basis. Mean annual precipitation varied from 694 mm (at Westnimar) to 1416 mm (at Mandla). Maximum decrease in annual precipitation was found at Balaghat (− 11.99%) and minimum at Shahdol (− 8.52%) district. The most probable year of change was 1978 in annual precipitation. Change in percentage in mean of 1901–1978 over the mean of 1979–2002 showed the decrease in precipitation in almost all the stations. Again, the decrease in annual precipitation was − 2.59% over the entire Madhya Pradesh in 102 years. West MP showed more increase in annual precipitation than East MP during the period of 1901–1978. However, the East MP showed more decrease than west MP during the period of 1979–2002.► Mean annual precipitation varies from 694 mm at Westnimar to 1416 mm at Mandla. ► Maximum decrease in annual precipitation at Balaghat (− 11.99%) and minimum at Shahdol (− 8.52%). ► The most probable year of change was 1978 in annual precipitation. ► Percentage increased in annual precipitation was 14.88% before the change year (1901–1978). ► Percentage decreased in annual precipitation was (−)12.99% after the change year (1901–1978).

Objectives: To identify the trend and variability of precipitation in the Indian subcontinent. Methods: To identify the trend component the non-parametric test statistic Mann-Kendall and Statistical Process Control (SPC) methodologies are used to conduct a statistical study. Findings: Precipitation of India has shown decreasing trend throughout the winter, monsoon, and on an annual basis, and an increasing tendency was observed during the rest of the seasons. During the winter season, there was more variation in precipitation with Coefficient of Variance (CV) is 33.7919%. Novelty: The long period (120 years) average data from 1901-2020 is used to know the long run trend and distribution pattern variation of precipitation in India with the proposed statistical methods. Applications: This mechanism is suitable to change the crop pattern and manage the adverse effects in associated sectors.

The present study deals with the estimation of dependences, spatio-temporal trends, change points, and stationarity in rainfall and rainy day series (1901–2013) for five (out of six) different climatic regions of India. Only one-fourth of the station rainfall and rainy day datasets exhibits long-term dependence on an annual and seasonal basis. The presence of lag-one serial correlation is prominent for almost all the climatic regions of India. The significant decreasing trend is found mainly for the stations of semi-arid and humid sub-tropical regions. The magnitude of rainfall is decreasing for most parts of the study area by 10% for annual and monsoon seasons. The change point is presented in a smaller number of stations. Non-stationary behaviour is observed for the rainy day series of semi-arid and humid sub-tropical regions, which may increase the temporal variability of rainfall over the same regions. The findings of this study could be very useful for the planning and manageme...

Climate change is a worldwide problem caused by various anthropogenic activities, leading to changes in hydroclimatic variables like temperature, rainfall, riverine flow, and extreme hydrometeorological events. In India, significant changes are noted in its natural resources and agriculture sectors. In this study, we analysed the long-term spatio-temporal change in rainfall patterns of Madhya Pradesh, Central India, using Indian Meteorological Department high-resolution gridded data from 439 grid points. The coefficient of variance analysis showed low variability in annual and monsoon rainfall but significant variability in pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter seasons, indicating considerable seasonal variation. Pre-monsoon rainfall exhibited an increasing trend (0.018 mm annually), while annual, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter rainfall showed decreasing trends. Change point analysis identified shifts in rainfall patterns in 1998 (monsoon, annual), 1955 (pre-monsoon), 1987 (post-...

The temperature and rainfall trends are analysed for meteorological data of Labandi station, Raipur district in Chhattisgarh, India over approximately last three decades stretching between years 1971 to 2013. The long–term change in temperature and rainfall has been assessed by linear trend analysis. The increasing trend in mean maximum temperature (MMAX) and total mean rainfall (TMRF) is confirmed by Mann-Kendall trend test. It is observed that in Raipur district of Chhattisgarh region, the December MMAX temperature has increased by 1.1008 0C and annual MMAX temperature has increased by 0.0256 0C whereas the highest decrease in TMRF occurs is observed in August @ 1.4385 mm per year (data base 1971-2013) and annual TMRF quantity has increased by 8.084 mm during the same period. Annual MMAX temperature has shown increasing trend which is statistically non- significant at 5% level of significance whereas annual TMRF has shown increasing trend which is statistically non- significant at...

The paper examines the impact of climatic change on the mean temperature time series for Pre-monsoon (Mar-May), Monsoon (Jun-Sept), Post-monsoon (Oct-Nov), winter (Dec-Feb) and Annual (Jan-Dec) at 45 stations in the state of Madhya Pradesh, India. Impact detection is accomplished by using the Mann-Kendall method to find out the monotonic trend and Sen’s slope is method is to identify the grandeur of trend for the period 1901 to 2005 (105 years). Prior to the trend analysis prominence of eloquent lag-1 serial correlation are eradicated from data by the pre-whitening method. In addition, shift year change has also been examined in the study using Pettitt’s test. From 45 stations, most of the station show symbolic hike trend at 5% significance level in the mean temperature time series for Madhya Pradesh region. During peak summer months the maximum temperature touches 40°C in the entire Madhya Pradesh. The magnitudes of annual increase in temperature in the majority of the stations are...