FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE AND EXPORT IN NIGERIA: ARDL BOUND TEST APPROACH (original) (raw)
2019, Dutse Journal of Economics and Development Studies (DUJEDS), Department of Economics and Development Studies, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria.
Exchange rate is an important variable used as a parameter for determining international competitiveness and it is being regarded as an indicator of the competitiveness of the currency of any economy and an inverse relationship between this competitiveness exist. The study analysed impact of foreign exchange rate and export relation in Nigeria. In the model specified, export is the dependent while real exchange rate; inflation rate and real interest rate are the independent variables. Data were collected from CBN statistical bulletin and national bureau of statistics (NBS) for the period 1980 - 2017. The statistical techniques used for the analysis are the unit root test, cointegration test; ARDL bound test and post estimation techniques of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation test, and stability test. The result of the empirical analysis for the unit root result were found to be mixed order of integration at level first difference. The result of the ARDL model revealed that there are significant effects of the lag of the variables on the export during the. The ARDL suggests a significant effect of the current year of exports exchange rate and inflation shows a significant effect on current year, second and third on exports. While interest rate also has a significant effect ate current year on export. ARDL bound test shows the there is no long run relationship among the variables given the F-statistics lies below the lower bound of the critical value and finally the post estimation heteroscedasticity test series correlation and stability test indicate that the model is reliable. therefore, the paper recommends exchange rate stabilisation measures to encourage the through the fixed exchange rate regime to reduce the uncertainty in the value of naira in order to enhance the export volume of Nigeria.
Loading Preview
Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.