Short- and long-term effects of imprisonment on future felony convictions and prison admissions (original) (raw)
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Criminology, 2010
Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior.
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 2007
activity, there does not yet exist a sound knowledge base about the extent to which incarceration exhibits a criminogenic, deterrent, or null effect on subsequent individual offending trajectories. This is an unfortunate happenstance since classic criminological theories make vastly different predictions about the role of punishment in altering criminal activity, and life-course criminologists suggest that life events can materially influence subsequent criminal activity. Using arrest histories of a sample ofprisoners released from state prisons in 1994 and followed for three years post-release, this Article seeks to address the impact of incarceration on subsequent offending trajectories. Results indicate that a comparison of the counterfactual and actual offending patterns suggests that most releasees were either deterred from future offending (40%) or merely incapacitated by their incarceration (56%). Only about 4% had a criminogenic effect. Future theoretical and empirical research directions are outlined
Circumventing the sentencing grid: Encouraging downward departures in presumptive prison cases
Criminal Justice Policy Review, 2023
This study examines sentencing outcomes of Justice Reinvestment Initiative (JRI) focused on reducing incarceration by encouraging downward departures to community-based sanctions in presumptive prison cases. The sample includes 3,930 defendants enrolled in the JRI program. Pre-adjudication assessment reports and a judicial settlement conference were used to help the court decide if a case warranted a departure offer. A quasi-experimental design with propensity score matching balanced JRI program defendants to 1,153 historic defendants that would have been eligible in the previous year. Logistic regressions assessed the impact of both program participation and race/ethnicity, controlling for other factors on prison versus probation sentence outcomes and sentence length in prison outcomes. On average, across all racial groups, program participants are 52% less likely to go to prison. The impact of participation on sentencing outcomes was also equitable across the race/ ethnicity of defendants. However, the program did not affect sentence length of prison outcomes.
The Deterrent Effects of Prison: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Journal of Political Economy, 2009
In this paper we test for the theory of deterrence. We exploit the natural experiment provided by the Collective Clemency Bill passed by the Italian Parliament in July 2006. As a consequence of the provisions of the bill, expected punishment to former inmates recommitting a crime can be considered as good as randomly assigned. Based on a unique data set on post-release behaviour of former inmates, we find that an additional month in expected sentence reduces the propensity to recommit a crime by 1.24 percent: this corroborates the general deterrence hypothesis. However, this effect depends on the time previously served in prison: the behavioural response to an additional month of expected sentence decreases with the length of the prison spell. This second result can be hardly reconciled with the specific deterrence hypothesis according to which a stronger past experience of punishment should increase the sensitivity to future expected sanctions.
The Effect of Imprisonment on Recidivism Rates of Felony Offenders: A Focus on Drug Offenders*
Criminology, 2002
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the deterrent effect of imprisonment. Using data on offenders convicted of felonies in 1993 in Jackson County (Kansas City), Missouri, we compare recidivism rates for offenders sentenced to prison with those for offenders placed on probation. W e find n o evidence that imprisonment reduces the likelihood of recidivism. Instead, we find compelling evidence that offenders who are sentenced to prison have higher rates of recidivism and recidivate more quickly than d o offenders placed on probation. We also find persuasive evidence that imprisonment has a more pronounced criminogenic effect on drug offenders than on other types of offenders. KEYWORDS Recidivism, imprisonment, drug offenders. In Malign Neglect, Michael Tonry (199581) contends that "Drugoffense sentences are the single most important cause of the trebling of the prison population in the United States since 1980." Statistics concerning state and federal prison populations support this conclusion. The percentage of state prisoners incarcerated for a drug offense nearly quadrupled from 1980 (6%) to 1996 (23%). Similarly, the percentage of federal offenders serving time for a drug offense increased from 25% in 1980 to 60% in 1996. In fact, the increase in drug offenders accounted for nearly three-quarters of the total increase in federal inmates and one-third of the total increase in state inmates during this 16-year period (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 1998). These statistics reflect a crime control policy premised on a theory of * This manuscript is based on work supported by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Points of view are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. We are grateful for the helpful comments of the editor and the anonymous reviewers on earlier drafts of the paper. CRIMINOLOGY VOLUME 40 NUMBER 2 2002 329 330 SPOHN AND HOLLERAN deterrence that Skolnick (1997:411) characterizes as "superficially persuasive." The assumption is that sentencing drug offenders to prison for long periods of time will deter current and prospective offenders, leading eventually to a reduction in drug abuse and drug-related crime. As numerous commentators have observed, however, this assumption rests on the false premise that altering criminal penalties will alter behavior (Irwin and Austin, 1997; Paternoster, 1991, 1987; Tonry, 1995). In fact, scholarly research generally concludes that increasing the severity of penalties will have little, if any, effect on crime. This conclusion also is applicable to offenders convicted of drug offenses. As Cohen and her colleagues (19981260) recently noted, "Observers of the criminal justice system who in general agree on little else have joined in arguing that increased penalties for drug use and distribution at best have had a modest impact on the operation of illicit drug markets, on the price and availability of illicit drugs, and on consumption of illicit drugs." The purpose of this study is to evaluate the deterrent effect of incarceration, with a particular focus on drug offenders. Using data on offenders convicted of felonies in Jackson County (Kansas City), Missouri, in 1993, we compare recidivism rates for offenders sentenced to prison with those for offenders sentenced to probation. Using multiple definitions of recidivism, we examine recidivism rates for drug offenders, drug-involved offenders, and offenders convicted of nondrug offenses, controlling for the offender's background characteristics, prior criminal record, and other relevant factors. PRIOR RESEARCH EVIDENCE REGARDING THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF PUNISHMENT The crime control policies pursued in the context of the War on Drugs rest largely on the philosophy of deterrence. As developed by eighteenthcentury utilitarian philosophers such as Jeremy Bentham (1948) and Cesare Beccaria (1963 [1764]), deterrence theory suggests that crime results from a rational calculation of the costs and benefits of criminal activity: Individuals commit crimes when the benefits outweigh the costs. Because an important "cost" of crime is apprehension and punishment, deterrence theorists suggest that "persons will refrain from committing offenses if they perceive that they are certain to be punished, with a severe penalty, and soon after the crime has been committed" (Paternoster, 1991:219). Deterrence can be either specific or general. Specific deterrence occurs when those who have been punished "cease offending, commit less serious offenses, or offend at a lower rate because of the fear of some future sanction" (Paternoster and Piquero, 1995:251). General
THE CRIMINOGENIC EFFECTS OF IMPRISONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM STATE PANEL DATA, 1974?2002
Criminology & Public Policy, 2007
The heavy reliance on the use of incarceration in an attempt to address the crime problem has resulted in a dramatic growth in the number of state prisoners over the past 30 years. In recent years, however, a growing concern has developed about the impact that large numbers of offenders released from prison will have on crime rates. Using a state panel data set for 46 states from 1974 to 2002, this study demonstrates that although prison population growth seems to be associated with statistically significant decreases in crime rates, increases in the number of prisoners released from prison seem to be significantly associated with increases in crime. Because we control for changes in prison population levels, we attribute the apparent positive influences on crime that seem to follow prison releases to the criminogenic effects of prison.
The impacts of length of prison stay on recidivism of non-violent offenders in Oregon
Journal of Criminal Justice, 2022
Over the last five decades, US imprisonment growth has significantly strained state resources and extensively impacted communities. Due to increased costs and faced with the potential of opening a new correctional facility, Oregon passed its version of Justice Reinvestment (JRI) in 2013. It specifically targeted nonviolent crimes to reduce prison use, reduce recidivism, maintain public safety, and increase offender accountability. While Oregon and other states look to reduce prison use, including shortening sentences, there is concern that recidivism may rise. The current study assesses the impact of LOS on rearrest and reincarceration for nonviolent offenders in Oregon utilizing a quasi-experimental approach employing marginal means weighting through stratification. The results indicate that LOS has no meaningful impact on the recidivism rate in almost all cases and that sentences longer than 24 months are not likely warranted for nonviolent offenders. The results suggest that policymakers may consider shorter sentences without sacrificing public safety. ☆ This project was funded by the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission under Grant No. PSU-19-10.
Recidivism and Time Served in Prison
Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology, 2016
A justification for lengthier stays in prison stems from the belief that spending more time in prison reduces recidivism. Extant studies, however, have provided limited evidence for that belief and, indeed, suggest the effect of time served may be minimal. Few studies have employed rigorous methodological approaches, examined time spans of more than one to two years, or investigated the potential for the relationship between recidivism and time served to be curvilinear. Drawing on prior scholarship, this paper identifies three sets of hypotheses about the functional form of the time served and recidivism relationship. Using generalized propensity score analysis to examine data on 90,423 inmates released from Florida prisons, we find three patterns: greater time served initially increases recidivism but then, after approximately one year, decreases it, and, after approximately two years, exerts no effect; estimation of the effects associated with durations of more than five years are...