African Futures 2030. Free trade, peace and prosperity (original) (raw)
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Zamfara Journal of Politics and Development, Department of Political Science , 2022
The objective of this paper is to examine the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) of the African Union (AU) and to assess the challenges and prospects for regional integration in Africa in a post covid-19 era. The paper, which is qualitative in its approach, argues that the number of states accepting regional economic integration initiative such as the AfCFTA is one of the major features of globalization whose benefits have not been distributed equally. It also argues that though the AfCFTA is a pillar and beacon of continental wide integration in form of an African Economic Community (AEC) envisaged in the Abuja Treaty, however, the adoption of unrealistic and unfeasible timelines for implementation of the AEC pose serious challenges to regional integration for Africa. Regional integration in Africa seeks to transform Africa by addressing the fragmentation and division brought about by colonialism, and to promote unity and African development. While the AU argues that AfCFTA will boost intra-African economic integration through increased trade and investment, the extent to which African states would reap the benefits of the free trade area remains unclear. Numerous challenges that currently affect intra-African trade include, but not limited to, the low levels of development of African economies and their excessive dependence on primary commodity production and exports, protectionist trade policies, weak infrastructure, and high security risks. The outbreak of novel corona virus (COVID 19) pandemic threatens to reverse the gains made towards takeoff of the AfCFTA as African countries have diverted attention towards mitigation and containment of the spread of the virus in their individual countries. The reluctance of some African states such as Nigeria to sign the AfCFTA shows that not all African states are convinced that the promised continental benefits of free trade would align with their national interests. Some countries perceive the AfCFTA as a re-introduction of the earlier rejected contentious European Union's Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). The paper concludes that while most African countries may have signed the agreement, the implications on national economies would be considered by many before and even after ratification. It recommends that the African Union should protect the vital interests of member states by commissioning in-depth studies and to carry out further enlightenments on the AfCFTA. This will go a long way in transforming Africa's trade potentials to benefits for the growth and development of member states.
The African Continental Free Trade Area: The road ahead for the continent's bold integration project
Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, 2023
Purpose-The paper examines the road ahead for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on its potential opportunities and challenges. It is intended to help the AfCFTA's effective implementation by highlighting the major areas of intervention for State Parties. Approach-The paper analyses relevant economic, political and legal research sources on regional integration in Africa and offers some personal views of the author to evaluate the past, present and future of the AfCFTA. Findings-The paper shows that the AfCFTA can support its State Parties' industrialization and diversification, better integrate Micro-, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) to regional value chains, create jobs, encourage sustainable investments, and help its State Parties have common positions on global issues and achieve development. But, it also shows the challenges facing the AfCFTA, which include infrastructure gap, revenue and job losses, overlapping membership of State Parties in Regional Economic Communities (RECs), cumbersome customs systems, difficulty to cross African borders, fledgling MSMEs and inadequate technical capacity on trade policy. Accordingly, it recommends that State Parties continuously take various actions to address these challenges and maximize the multiple benefits of the AfCFTA. Originality/value-The paper provides a comprehensive and up-to-date appraisal of the opportunities and challenges of the AfCFTA, both in the context of the history of regional integration in Africa and the recent global shocks that adversely impacted the continent (Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine).
Unpacking the Significance of African Continental Free Trade Area for Africa and its People
2021
With free trade under attack in much of the developed world, Africa is forging a new path for itself to foster sustainable wealth and development for the continent. On 21 March 2018, AU leaders met in Rwanda to finalise the signing of a new trade agreement creating the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA consists of a framework agreement for its establishment and also the Protocol on Trade in Goods and Trade in Services, and the Protocol on Rules and Procedures on the Settlement of Disputes. These developments come on the back of 10 rounds of AfCFTA negotiations concluded in December 2017, with the 11th round underway in May 2018 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The AfCFTA signals the beginning of a new chapter for mega-regional trade relations on the African continent and enhanced efforts at deepening trade and regional integration. This paper gives a snapshot of developments building up to the signing of the AfCFTA and examines the status of the AfCFTA as African gov...
World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2024
This article examines the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on economic integration in Africa, focusing on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). As the largest free trade area globally, AfCFTA aims to create a unified market for goods and services across 55 African Union member states, fostering economic growth, reducing trade barriers, and enhancing intra-African trade. This article assesses the potential economic benefits of AfCFTA, including increased market access, industrialization, and job creation. It also considers the challenges of implementation, such as infrastructure deficits, varying levels of economic development, and non-tariff barriers. Through case studies of key African economies, including South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya, the article explores how AfCFTA is reshaping trade dynamics and regional cooperation. Furthermore, it evaluates the role of AfCFTA in addressing Africa's dependence on external markets and enhancing global competitiveness. The article concludes by providing recommendations for policy reforms, capacity building, and regional cooperation needed to maximize the benefits of AfCFTA. By analyzing both opportunities and challenges, this article offers insights into how AfCFTA can drive deeper economic integration and sustainable development across the African continent.
The Review of International Affairs, 2020
Ever since the African states regained their independence in the second half of the twentieth century, there has been an idea among African political elites about mutual cooperation among their independent states. The spirit of Pan-Africanism was a mainstream discourse within African political, intellectual, and cultural elites throughout the twentieth century. The Pan-African idea was soon concretized into the Organization of African Unity, which was replaced in 2002 by the African Union as we know it today. Yet, despite numerous initiatives, monetary unions, regional economic committees, and the establishment of the African Union as an umbrella organization, the effects of African integration were not good enough. The African Union did not have the strength to impose common policies on all its members, funding remained a permanent problem, and regional economic committees were suffering from the "spaghetti bowl effect" caused by numerous overlaps in membership. Perhaps the biggest problem lies in the fact that African citizens have not been able to feel the benefits of integration, despite sporadic improvements in macroeconomic indicators. New momentum in African integration happened in the spring of 2018 with the launch of a new initiative called the African Continental Free Trade Agreement-AfCFTA. The new agreement differs from the previous agreements in the number of signatories. It has been signed by all countries of the continent (except Eritrea), and it has already been ratified by most of them. The agreement has clear implementation strategies and evaluation criteria. However, we must reexamine whether the new agreement will succeed in overcoming the obstacles that have dulled previous regional initiatives and whether it will succeed in overcoming new obstacles that will emerge in the future.
The promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
ECDPM Discussion Paper , 2020
So far more than 30 countries have ratified the Agreement, which aims to connect 55 countries, creating a market of 1.3 billion people. The hopes and aspirations attached to the AfCFTA-for trade, industrialisation and addressing the effects of COVID-19-place it high on the agendas of African policymakers, but also of their partners who support the process. This paper provides an overview of some of the potential opportunities and benefits of the AfCFTA, particularly in relation to manufacturing, agriculture, services and e-commerce, but also of the challenges involved in moving from agreement to impact. The AfCFTA promises a virtuous circle of greater market opportunities, triggering more trade and investment, and allowing greater value addition and productivity growth-leading to more and better jobs with social inclusion, and thus further enlarged markets. But for the full benefits of the AfCFTA to accrue to African countries and citizens, numerous additional policy enablers-measures, reforms and investment-are also key, not least in infrastructure, transport corridors and logistics, as well as to improve the business climate in African countries. Despite high-level political momentum around the AfCFTA, its ultimate success depends on African states not only ratifying, but fully implementing and complying with the AfCFTA, while also investing in the necessary
Free trade, peace and prosperity
2021
This Chaillot Paper is the outcome of a Task Force on African Futures, launched in November 2019 by the EUISS in partnership with leading African and European research institutions. The Task Force identified the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a key factor driving economic, technological and societal transformations in Africa in the next decade. Based on the premise that continental integration is critical for Africa’s economic recovery and future resilience, the publication portrays what an integrated and prosperous African continent could look like in 2030, thanks to the full implementation of the AfCFTA. It describes the pathways, milestones and initiatives that can lead to such a desirable scenario in ten selected, cross-cutting areas, showing how coordinated policy action in these sectors is essential to achieve trade integration. In contrast, it also warns about what could happen if negative sectoral trends are not addressed, highlighting ...
Can the African Continental Free Trade Area Offer a New Beginning for Trade in Africa
2018
On 21 March 2018, AU leaders met in Rwanda to finalise the signing of a new trade agreement creating the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The inauguration of the AfCFTA reflects a milestone for future continental unity, regional integration and deeper economic ties. However, questions remain as to whether African leaders will be able to successfully implement the free trade area, especially given that a lack of political will, technical expertise amongst relevant stakeholders and financial constraints have plagued most continental and regional efforts towards deeper intraAfrican trade thus far. This paper provides a snapshot of the negotiations that preceded the signing of the AfCFTA and examines the status of the AfCFTA as African governments move forward in their goal to establish a continent-wide free trade area. It identifies some of the benefits that should flow from a successfully implemented AfCFTA, while also examining some of the difficulties that might hinder ...
African Continental Free Trade Area AfCFTA: Risks and Strategies
Tana Papers, 2020
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a double-edged sword. In principle, it is a decisive step in the right direction towards realising Pan-African economic integration. However, realising the objectives of AfCFTA needs to occur within the context of a continental development framework that addresses the fundamental developmental challenges of the continent. Unless clearly defined and complementary developmental goals (at the continental, sub-regional and national level) preceded the implementation of AfCFTA, the current narrow focus on trade liberalisation could impose another layer of socio-economic and political predicaments on African citizens. This policy brief argues that one of the most imminent risks of AfCFTA is the potential restrictions on the African states from having a ‘directional thrust’ to shape the production, control, access and distribution of resources in their respective economies. Constrained state capacity in the context of a ‘free trade’ arrangement can lead to a non-existent or minimal room for transformative industrial and social policies. A viable strategy to avoid this risk is setting ‘developmental regionalism’ as one of the continental development goals to guide the implementation of AfCFTA.
A Step Closer: Economic Integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area
SSRN Electronic Journal
Post-colonial Africa views economic integration as an endogenous means for attaining self-reliant, sustainable development. Working under various regional and sub-regional economic institutions, states elaborated several norms in search of legitimacy in economic competence. However, several political and economic pathogens, including weak institutions, have blighted those efforts. This paper interrogates the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA or CFTA), which is the latest attempt to reboot the integration drive and achieve sustainable development. The CFTA seeks to create a geographic zone where goods and services will move freely among member states by removing trade distortions and boosting factor mobility, competition, and investment. After a rigorous analysis of the relevant normative instruments and examining the vertical and horizontal relationship between the CFTA and regional economic communities (RECs)/member states, the paper articulates some objective criteria for measuring the CFTA's effectiveness. It concludes that, if faithfully implemented, the CFTA could maximize utility and increase welfare. For the analysis and conclusions, the paper deploys principles of public international law as well as economic theories, with a blend of political and moral philosophy.