The Crisis in Ukraine and the Baltic Sea Region: A Spillover of the conflict? (original) (raw)
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From Vilnius to the Kerch Strait wide ranging security risks of the Ukraine crisis.pdf
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A discourse about who can be held accountable for the emergence of the Ukrainian conflict has developed. The EU’s and Russia’s polar-opposite integration strategies with Ukraine, dividing the country between its political and economic affiliation with either Brussels or Kiev, were considered as factors causing tensions in Ukraine. At the same time an intensifying opposition towards President Yanukovich’s leadership was another factor contributing to the deterioration of this crisis. A series of scholarly accounts examined the afore mentioned causes for intensifying violence of this conflict. The first Ukrainian-Russian confrontation in the Sea of Azov in November 2018 necessitates an assessment of the security implications of this re-intensification of a conflict which seemed to be frozen for several years. This confrontation exceeds Ukraine’s borders. The imminent threat is reflected in the Ukrainian President’s request for support by NATO and the implementation of martial law. By examining the EU’s response to the Ukraine crisis between the annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the renewed Russian-Ukrainian confrontation in the Sea of Azov in November 2018, this article examines the EU’s capacities in providing security in Ukraine.
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Ukraine experiences unarguably the most challenging times in its modern history. The, so- called, “Ukraine crisis” has turned due to the projection of Russia´s military force in Crimea and the East of the country from an internal political conflict into a multi-level global crisis with significant consequences for Europe. The combination of domestic political challenges, severe deterioration of Ukraine`s oligarchic type of economy, war in the East of the country as well as the need for securing international financing and diplomatic support, put Ukraine in an extremely difficult position and on the top of the global political agenda. The authors also analyse Russia`s hybrid warfare showing how it justifies its actions and revealing the striking divergence in the reality on the ground and official Russian statements. In order to secure its national interests, Russia violated international law, broke its multilateral and bilateral commitments to Ukraine and took adversary stance towards the West blaming it to for the eruption of the crisis. This newly emerged situation in Eastern Europe significantly increases the insecurity of the former post-soviet republics as well as the possibility of a larger military collision. The paper also aims to provide a brief overview of EU policies preceding the Ukrainian crisis, and offers an analysis of responses of key actors (including Germany) involved in the Ukrainian crisis. Furthermore, the authors also put emphasis on the analysis of the current domestic developments in Ukraine, formulate implications specifically for Slovakia, as well as make short-term predictions regarding the future of political cooperation in Europe.
The U.S. Foreign Policy Towards The Baltic States: The Implications Of Ukraine Crisis
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This paper aims to discuss the implications of Ukraine crisis to the U.S. foreign policy towards the Baltic States. This paper consists of several parts. To begin with, political discourse of Obama‘s and Trump‘s administrations‘ is analysed. The second part presents an analysis of practical level of U.S. relations with Baltic States during and after Ukraine crisis, focusing on three dimensions: political/diplomatic, military and economic. In the third part of this paper, implications of the Ukrainian crisis on U.S. relations with Baltic States are assessed, comparing trends in official political discourse and practical foreign policy of Baltic States prior to and after the Ukraine crisis.
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The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a clear sign that Moscow is looking to extend its sphere of influence and it forced the Baltic States to take a very close look at their deterrent capabilities. The article introduces the basic concepts of deterrence and discusses the differences between the deterrent capabilities of Ukraine and the Baltic States. Furthermore, the threats that Russia presents, the factors that were responsible for Ukraine's deterrence failure and the challenges that the Baltic States are facing are analysed. The article concludes that while the Baltic States are significantly better prepared for possible Russian aggression, their deterrent capabilities must continuously evolve to reflect the changes in the nature of modern warfare.
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In the background of the events at the Polish-Belarusian border, there is growing tension related to the potential transfer of the crisis to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Combined with the increased activity of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, this causes growing concern not only for Ukraine but also for Western states and institutions. The multidimensional actions of Russia show that even if there is no open military confrontation, Russia will intensify the pressure on the process of integration with Belarus, continue to destabilize Ukraine, and indirectly exert influence on the West.
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While Russia is taking full control of the Crimean Peninsula, Western powers didn't avoided major involvement during the crisis to hinder Russia's annexation, raising significant concerns for the Black Sea region. The main question for NATO and the international community is how to avoid similar situations from occurring in the future as nations such as Russia and China increase their military strength. This issue of Atlantic Voices offers insights that give fresh points of view to the matter of security in the Black Sea region while at the same time emphasizing the need for a different approach by international actors like NATO and the EU.