Evaluating Sources of Risks in Large Engineering Projects: The Roles of Equivocality and Uncertainty (original) (raw)
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2016
Contemporary project risk management literature introduces uncertainty, i.e., the lack of information, as a fundamental basis of project risks. In this study the authors assert that equivocality, i.e., the existence of multiple and con-flicting interpretations, can also serve as a basis of risks. With an in-depth empirical investigation of a large complex engineering project the authors identified risk sources having their bases in the situations where uncertainty or equivocality was the predominant attribute. The information processing theory proposes different managerial practices for risk management based on the sources of risks in uncertainty or equivocality.
International Journal of Project Management, 2005
A review of the outcome of many information technology (IT) projects reveals that they fail to meet the pre-specified project objectives of scope, time and budget. Despite well-established project risk management processes, project managers perceive their application as ineffective to manage risk. This failure may well be attributed to the inadequate application of those risk management processes. The purpose of this research was to investigate how project managers responsible for the management of risk in IT projects actually managed risk and to relate this back to established project risk management processes. In undertaking this investigation, we were seeking to understand the ways in which the project managersÕ approaches and behaviours, when considering risk in IT projects, differed from what might be expected. Results show that because of environment-related and decision maker-related conditions, project managers tend to deny, avoid, ignore and delay dealing with risk, with the consequence of those actions having an adverse influence on their perceived effectiveness of risk management and the project outcomes. If project risk management, and its underlying processes are not to be discredited, the behaviour of project managers when confronted by uncertainty should be considered and actions need to be taken to discourage project managersÕ irrational actions.
Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management
This paper argues that all current project risk management processes induce a restricted focus on the management of project uncertainty. In part this is because the term 'risk' encourages a threat perspective. In part this is because the term 'risk' has become associated with 'events' rather than more general sources of significant uncertainty. The paper discusses the reasons for this view, and argues that a focus on 'uncertainty' rather than risk could enhance project risk management, providing an important difference in perspective, including, but not limited to, an enhanced focus on opportunity management. The paper outlines how project risk management processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective.
A STUDY OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICE RELATIVE TO PERCEIVED PROJECT COMPLEXITY
The project management literature is extensive with reference to continued project failures and the notion that over the years projects have increased in complexity. This is accompanied by concern that prescribed industry risk management standards are not effective enough in managing uncertainty and risk, especially in complex project environments. Leading risk and project management researchers have proposed a number of approaches that they consider to have the potential to improve the management of uncertainty and risk in these environments, including the uncertainty management paradigm; explicit opportunity management; an improved approach to the evaluation and interpretation of estimates; complexity theory concepts and the explicit management of individual and organisational risk attitudes. Other researchers suggest an even wider approach to managing uncertainty and risk, such as scenario planning or frameworks that include fundamental uncertainty, ignorance and fuzziness.
Risk management in the conceptual phase of a project
International Journal of Project Management, 1999
This paper sets out the results of a study into the use of risk management in the conceptual phase of the construction project development cycle in the Australian construction industry. The study consisted of a literature review, a survey to examine skill levels and attitudes of key players to risk management, and their attitude to change. Various structural factors concerned with the implementation of risk management were also studied, and a statistical analysis of the survey data was made. It was found that while most respondents were familiar with risk management, its application in the conceptual phase was relatively low, even though individuals were willing to embrace change. Also, the application of information technology and the integration of various information systems appears to be more signi®cant than organisation structure in the use of risk management. Widespread adoption of risk management is impeded by a low knowledge and skill base, resulting from a lack of commitment to training and professional development. #
Αnalysis of impartial implementation in practice of risk identification in technical projects
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 2019
Risk identification in the case of technical projects is an issue that has been extensively studied in many previous research efforts; however, a thorough study of the respective literature clearly reveals a methodological and application gap between research and practice, which is further increased by a wide discrepancy of definitions and procedures applied. This paper proposes the consideration of risk sources in the risk identification process as a means to bridge the identified gap and reduce discrepancy. The paper presents the results of the processing and analysis of real projects’ risk data through unstructured interviews with the experts who provided the data, and examines their correlation with a comprehensive risk sources checklist drawn from previous research. The results of this cross-checking clearly highlighted the extensive misconceptions of the related terms and notions in practice (e.g., what is perceived as risk identification is actually risk source identification), as well as the partial implementation of procedures that reflects a similar partial approach to technical project risk analysis in practice (e.g., the risk sources actually identified are fewer than those that could be identified through a holistic approach to technical project risk analysis). These results draw attention to the need for more-focused risk source–related research, because the new paradigm shift in technical project risk analysis highlights the importance of risk sources.
Mapping the multi-faceted: Determinants of uncertainty in safety-critical projects
Project managers tasked with delivering safety-critical projects must demonstrate care, competence and confidence right from the earliest stages of project inception, when levels of uncertainty can be very high. Based on interviews with 30 project management practitioners in civil nuclear and aerospace sectors, this paper builds on work by Saunders et al. (2015), who posited the Uncertainty Kaleidoscope as a framework for identifying uncertainties. Our findings are that the six determinants of project uncertainty are similar across both civil nuclear and aerospace projects. The most commonly mentioned determinant of project uncertainty was the Environment, followed by Complexity, Capability and Information. The impact of Time on project uncertainty and Individual perceptions of uncertainty were mentioned less frequently by respondents. Our key contribution is to validate the Uncertainty Kaleidoscope over a larger data set, thereby enriching our understanding of the sources of project uncertainty in these two important and highly-consequential project environments.
Risk as a Subjective Construct: Implications for Project Management Practice
eKNOW 2013 : The Fifth International Conference on Information, Process, and Knowledge Management
The management of risk is a key element of all mainstream project management methodologies. It has implications for the effectiveness of the project management process itself, and for the management and communication of knowledge that is an inherent part of that process. There are two main schools of thought regarding project risk management – ‘risk as an objective fact’ and ‘risk as a subjective construct’. The former considers risk as epistemologically probabilistic, whilst risk in the subjective construct perspective allows multiple epistemological dimensions of risk. Here we review how 'risk as a subjective construct' features in existing risk management literature, and how these contributions can be classified or grouped together. The role of risk registers is then reviewed to determine whether this has any relationship with the 'risk as a subjective construct' concept. The paper then reflects upon the authors’ future research programme and the possible implications for project management practice.
A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Major Risks in Complex Projects
Risk Management, 2007
The paper develops a model-based on three detail levels and three risk classification dimensions-to analyze major risks in complex projects. The model makes it possible to identify and classify project major risks, the related main sources of uncertainty and the activities and stakeholders that are most exposed, that is to create a project risk map considering all organizational and operational coordinates. The assessment of risk allocation for each project element has a relevant impact from a managerial and contractual point of view, in particular it allows for the identification of project elements affected by possible risk overload and for an effective definition of a suitable set of mitigation actions. The model can be applied at different levels of detail, taking into account the different stages of the project life cycle. The model has been tested in a particularly risk-critical engineering and contracting project.