Growth and yield response of winter wheat to soil warming and rainfall patterns (original) (raw)
Related papers
Effects of climate change on wheat production potential in the European Community
European Journal of Agronomy
Wheat grain production in the main arable areas of the EC was calculated with a simulation model, WOFOST, using historical weather data and average soil characteristics. The sensitivity of the model to individual weather variables was determined. Subsequent analyses were made using climate change scenarios with and without the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO.,. The impact of crop management (irrigation and cultivar type) in a changed climate was also asse;sed. Sensitivity analyses show that water-limited grain production of winter wheat increased with increasing vapour pressure, rainfall and atmospheric C0 2 concentration and decreased with increasing• windspeed, temperature (except for southern EC) and solar radiation. The various climate change scenarios that were used yielded considerably different changes in production, both for each location and for the EC as a whole. For example, the average water-limited grain production in the EC may remain constant or may decrease by about 1 000 kg ha-1 depending on scenario. If the direct effect of increasing C0 2 is also taken into account, the average water-limited grain production in the EC increased by about 1 000 kg ha-1 or more. Management analyses showed that for both the present and scenario generated climates the largest water-limited grain production will be attained by cultivars with an early start of grain filling, that average irrigation requirements to attain potential grain production will increase with climate change in northern EC and decrease in southern EC, and that with both increasing C0 2 and climate change irrigation requirements in northern EC remain unchanged and decrease further in southern EC.
Modelling C, N, water and heat dynamics in winter wheat under climate change in southern Sweden
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2001
The possible consequences of climate change on carbon and nitrogen budgets of winter wheat were examined by means of model predictions. Biomass, nitrogen, water and heat dynamics were simulated for long-term climatic conditions in central and southern Sweden for a clay soil and a sandy soil. The effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 and changed climate as predicted for 2050 were simulated daily with two linked process orientated models for soil and plant (SOIL/SOILN). The models had previously been calibrated against several variables at the sites under present conditions, and the long-term predictions at present climate were shown to correspond reasonably well with measured soil C and N trends in long-term experiments. The climate and CO 2 conditions for the year 2050 were represented by climatic scenarios from a global climate model, and the elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration was assumed to change plant parameter values in accordance with literature data.
Effect of Soil Warming and Rainfall Patterns on Soil N Cycling and the Performance of Winter Wheat
Climate change is projected to increase not only the seasonal air and soil temperatures, but also amount and variability of rainfall patterns in northern Europe. Rainfall for northern Europe is projected to increase during winter creating too wet a conditions and decrease during summer. This may influence temporal soil moisture and N dynamics, and crop productivity. An experiment (2008/09) with 3 factors: rainfall amount, rainfall frequency and soil warming (two levels in each factor), was laid out in split-split plot design using 32 open-field lysimeters (each of 1x1x1.5 m in size) filled with loamy sand soil in Denmark to investigate the effect on soil mineral N dynamics, crop N uptake, nitrate-N leaching and the productivity of winter wheat. Rainfall amount (main plot) included the site mean for 1961-90 as 'present' and the projected monthly mean change for 2071-2100 (as per IPCC A2 high emission scenario) as 'future' treatments. Rainfall frequency (sub plot) incl...
Climatic Change, 2019
Projected warming and drying trends over the Mediterranean region represent a substantial threat for wheat production. The present study assesses winter wheat yield response to potential climate change and estimates the quantitative effectiveness of using early flowering cultivars and early sowing dates as adaptation options for the major wheat production region of Portugal. A crop model (STICS) is used for this purpose, which is calibrated for yield simulations before projecting future yields. Climate projections over 2021-2050 and 2051-2080 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are retrieved from bias-adjusted datasets, generated by a ten-member climate model ensemble. Projected intensification of water deficits and more frequent hightemperature events during late spring (April-June), coinciding with the sensitive grain filling stage, primarily result in continuous mean yield losses (relative to 1981-2010) by − 14% (both scenarios) during 2021-2050 and by − 17% (RCP4.5) or − 27% (RCP8.5) during 2051-2080, also accompanied by increased yield variabilities. Of evaluated adaptation options at various levels, using earlier flowering cultivars reveals higher yield gains (26-38%) than that of early sowings (6-10%), which are able to reverse the yield reductions. The adopted early flowering cultivars successfully advance the anthesis onset and grain filling period, which reduces or avoids the risks of exposure to enhanced drought and heat stresses in late spring. In contrast, winter warming during early sowing window could affect vernalization fulfillment by slowing effective chilling accumulation, thus increasing the pre-anthesis growth length with limited effects on advancing reproductive stage. Crop yield projections and explored adaptation options are essential
Nature Climate Change, 2014
Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly a ect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981-2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies.
Journal of Agrometeorology
Field experiments were conducted at research farm of SKUAST-K, Shalimar campus, Srinagar for 2 years (2003-04 and 2004-05) on silt clay loam soil and at research farm of Integrated Farming System, SKUAST-J, Chatha, Jammu for 7 years (2003-04 to 2009-10) at sandy loam soil in order to find out the impact of climate change on wheat crop under temperate and sub tropical condition by using crop simulation model (DSSAT-v4.0). The results showed that under temperate condition the phenology of wheat is more affected compared to sub tropical condition if temperature increased and decreased. Simulated grain yield of wheat increased up to 18.31 per cent by elevated CO2 to 350 ppm from the base value 330 ppm in temperate condition.
Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales
Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 2009
The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the impact of drought stress on simulated wheat yield is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering that might result in considerable yield losses is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.
Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain
Royal Society Open Science, 2021
Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential w...