Risk-oriented model for predicting epidemiological situation with crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (on the example of Stavropol region) (original) (raw)
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Russian Journal of Infection and Immunity
The article presents a description of the current tick-borne infection epidemiological situation in the south of Russia from the years 2013 to 2022, proposes a new approach to develop forecasting models for morbidity dynamics of Astrakhan rickettsial fever (ARF) and Crimean hemorrhagic fever (СCHF) in the Astrakhan region and presents data assessing 2022 explaining models for the Stavropol Territory and Astrakhan Region. Materials and methods. A comprehensive research was performed using epidemiological analysis and non-parametric statistical methods. The data assessing tick-borne infections epidemic process manifestations were retrieved from ARF and CCHF morbidity databases (developed as a project) and documents of infectious disease focus epidemiological examination provided by the departments of Rospotrebnadzor in the subjects of the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts. Morbidity models were developed using the Bayes theorem and Walds sequential statistical analysis, w...
Veterinary Science Today, 2018
Progress trends in classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic situation in the Russian Federation in 1996-2015 are discussed in the paper. Spatial shift of CSF outbreaks from the central regions of the country (2007-2012) to the western and eastern border regions of the Russian Federation (2013-2015) has been confirmed. Based on the analysis, a short-term prognosis for 2016 has been made as well as recommendations on DIVA-based measures for CSF eradication in domestic pigs and wild boars in the RF have been provided.
Medical Herald of the South of Russia, 2020
Objective: monitoring, analysis and forecast of the spread of new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Rostov region.Materials and methods: analysis of data on the incidence of COVID-19 in the Rostov region, obtained on the basis of agencies: Department of the Federal service for supervision of consumer protection and human welfare in the Rostov region, Center of hygiene and epidemiology in Rostov region, Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology, as well as the monitoring of information on the Internet sites of the Government of the Rostov region and the regional headquarters for the fight against the spread of COVID-19. Application of the SEIR analytical platform to build a mathematical model for predicting the spread of infection in the Rostov region.Results: the article presents an analysis of the epidemiological situation for the incidence of COVID-19 in the Rostov region, analyzes the effectiveness of preventive and anti-epidemic measures with the ability t...
Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections
The paper presents a description of the epidemiological situation on Hantavirus infection incidence in the countries around the world. Comparative analysis of the intensity and dynamics of the epidemiological process of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in the Russian Federation by Federal Districts in 2021 has been carried out and forecast of the HFRS incidence for 2022 prepared. The study has revealed that tense situation on incidence of hantavirus diseases was observed in the world in 2021. On the territory of the Russian Federation, there was a decrease in the HFRS incidence in 2021 (by 1.7 times compared to 2020). However, the results of epidemiological analysis of the HFRS incidence, epizootiological data and laboratory studies in certain Federal Districts of the Russian Federation indicate that the epidemiological situation on HFRS remains tense. High risk of HFRS infection is predicted in a number of regions of the country due to the favorable natural and climatic...
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Group Outbreak Caused by Sochi Virus
Problems of Virology, 2019
Introduction. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) occupies a leading place among natural focal human diseases in the Russian Federation. Sporadic incidence of HFRS-Sochi has been annually recorded in the Krasnodar Territory since 2000. The group outbreak of the HFRS-Sochi was first registered in Gelendzhik in the fall of 2013. Material and methods. Serological methods were used: indirect immunofluorescence, enzyme immunoassay, FRNT in Vero cells, and methods for the viral RNA detection: PCR and RT-PCR. Results. Data of clinical, epidemiological, immunological and molecular studies of 3 out of 4 cases in HFRS-Sochi outbreak are presented. Severity of the disease correlated with early gastrointestinal disorders appearance. Patient MA gastrointestinal disorders were joined on day 3 of a fever. Clinical and laboratory studies revealed signs of kidneys, liver, pancreas damage, bilateral hydrothorax, bilateral polysegmental pneumonia and polyneuropathy. As a result of long-term t...
Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention
Relevance. Combined foci of zoonotic infections are found in all regions of the Russian Federation. A feature of combined foci is the common biocenosis for populations of pathogens of various etiologies (bacteria, viruses, parasitic infections) and the formation of natural foci by them. Aim. Epizootological study of the territory in the south of the Arkhangelsk region for the presence of combined foci of zoonotic infections (tularemia, leptospirosis and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome – HFRS). Materials and methods. 135 small mammals were captured and examined in the Ustyansky district of the Arkhangelsk region. Established the species composition and mixed infection among small mammals pathogens of tularemia, leptospirosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Results. In the south of the Arkhangelsk Region in the Ustyansky District, in 2019, for the first time, a combined natural focus of the forest type was identified and characterized. The bank vole and the common shrew ...