The Growing Epidemic of Diabetes Mellitus (original) (raw)
Related papers
Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections
Diabetes Care, 1998
OBJECTIVE -To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are ^20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urbanrural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population.
Global burden of diabetes: regional disparities in prevalence, incidence, and mortality
Journal of Health Inequalities
Objectives: To study the trends in diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality over time and by region of the world. Material and methods: An online literature search was carried out in PubMed for studies reporting data on the time trends of the prevalence and of the incidence of diabetes. Studies reporting the most recent trends were selected to represent each region of the world and with the aim to cover a time span as long as possible. For mortality trends, diabetes deaths registered in the World Health Organisation (WHO) mortality database by November 2018 were extracted by gender and five-year age group for a selection of countries and for the longest period available (from 1950 to 2015). Results: Thirty-two and 11 articles were included in the analysis of trends of diabetes prevalence and incidence, respectively. The prevalence and incidence of diabetes are increasing globally. A study of the trends on a finer geographic scale revealed contrasting results and confirmed a lack of trend data, notably in Eastern Europe and other low-and middle-income regions. Mortality is increasing in South and Central America and Africa, but is stabilising in the other regions of the world. Conclusions: Trends in diabetes prevalence and incidence showed disparities among different groups of populations, which could be explained by disparities in lifestyle and access to medical facilities or could be related to the obesity epidemic. This study revealed important data gaps that have to be bridged to obtain a more complete and more accurate picture of the worldwide diabetes epidemic.
IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040
Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, 2017
To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates. Results: 540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340-536 million) people with diabetes aged 20-79 years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low-and middleincome countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20-79 years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521-829 million) by 2040. Conclusion: Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.
The Lancet, 2023
Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6•1% (5•8-6•5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9•3% [8•7-9•9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12•3% [11•5-13•0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76•1% (73•1-79•5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96•0% (95•1-96•8) of diabetes cases and 95•4% (94•9-95•9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52•2% (25•5-71•8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24•3% (18•5-30•4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1•31 billion (1•22-1•39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16•8% (16•1-17•6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11•3% (10•8-11•9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43•6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. F
Epidemiology of Diabetes Mellitus: A Current Review
Romanian Journal of Diabetes Nutrition and Metabolic Diseases, 2012
Diabetes mellitus represents worldwide an extremely important public health problem considering its high prevalence, the serious complications triggered by the disease, the associated rate of mortality and, not the least, the extremely high economic and social costs. In 1995 approximately 135 million persons were affected by diabetes and an increase of 300 million cases was estimated by the year 2025. At the end of 2012 a number of 347 million persons with diabetes was estimated, with a prediction of 552 million cases in 2030, that is 9.9% from the world's adult population. The question asked on an annual basis is: "Diabetes where do we go? Can we stop the dramatic evolution?" key words: diabetes, prevalence, mortality.
The global epidemics of diabetes in the 21st century: Current situation and perspectives
European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 2019
Diabetes is on the rise worldwide, with a global prevalence in adults in 2017 being 8.8% of the world population, with the anticipation of a further increase to 9.9% by 2045. In total numbers, this reflects a population of 424.9 million people with diabetes worldwide in 2017, with an estimate of a 48% increase to 628.6 million people by 2045. Depending on age, global diabetes prevalence is about 5%, 10%, 15% and close to 20%, respectively, for the age groups 35–39, 45–49, 55–59 and 65–69 years. On a global scale, diabetes hits particularly ‘middle aged’ people between 40 and 59 years, which causes serious economic and social implications. Furthermore, diabetes affects especially low and middle income countries, as 77% of all people with diabetes worldwide live in those countries. In addition to overt diabetes, an estimated 352.1 million people worldwide are at risk of diabetes, i.e. have defined pre-diabetes, a figure which is anticipated to rise to 531.6 million by 2045. Some 70–75...
Is Diabetes Becoming the Biggest Epidemic of the Twenty-first Century
Diabetes is a major public health problem that is approaching epidemic proportions globally. Worldwide, the prevalence of chronic, noncommunicable diseases is increasing at an alarming rate. About 18 million people die every year from cardiovascular disease, for which diabetes and hypertension are major predisposing factors. Today, more than 1.7 billion adults worldwide are overweight, and 312 million of them are obese. In addition, at least 155 million children worldwide are overweight or obese. A diabetes epidemic is underway. According to an estimate of International Diabetes Federation comparative prevalence of Diabetes during 2007 is 8.0 % and likely to increase to 7.3% by 2025. Number of people with diabetes is 246 million (with 46% of all those affected in the 40-59 age group) and likely to increase to 380 m by 2025. The comparative prevalence of IGT is 7.5% in 2007 and likely to go up to 6.0 by 2025. The number of people with IGT is 308 million in 2007 and likely to be 418 m by 2025.
Global Burden of Diabetes Mellitus
Handbook of Global Health
Diabetes mellitus is a chronic noncommunicable disease contributing to a major share of premature morbidity and mortality in age 30-70. Globally, the estimated number of people living with diabetes has risen from 108 million in 1980 to 476 million in 2017 with the prevalence of diabetes among adults over 18 years of age rising from 4.7% in 1980 to 8.5% in 2014. Worldwide, 1.4 million deaths and 2.5% of total deaths are attributed to diabetes in 2017. The rapid rise in the prevalence of diabetes in low-and middle-income countries suggests the changing course of the diabetes epidemiology that it is a more widespread problem across the rich and poor nations as well as among the rich and poor of the nations. Among WHO regions, the Eastern Mediterranean, part of Asia, and Africa have higher prevalence of diabetes as compared to other countries, while Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions have the largest numbers of people with diabetes. Contributed by the complex interaction between genetic, behavioral, and environmental factors, globally, the prevalence of diabetes accentuates at the age of 45-49 with one in ten older adults diagnosed with diabetes with the peak prevalence rate of 24% in the oldest old age of 85-89. As a hormonal and metabolic chronic condition, diabetes is a main driver of several other comorbid health outcomes such as cardiovascular diseases, mental health disorders, kidney diseases, eye-related disorders, neuropathy, rheumatoid arthritis, bone-related diseases, etc. The global burden of diabetes not only poses serious challenges to public health but tend to have an overwhelming effect on the global development through substantial social and economic loss. Therefore, preventing and controlling diabetes with multisectoral efforts and effective interventions are very important. Early screening and adequate awareness and health-care intervention are essential to reduce the global burden of diabetes.
Diabetes mellitus statistics on prevalence and mortality: facts and fallacies
Nature reviews. Endocrinology, 2016
Diabetes mellitus is one of the most important public health challenges of the twenty-first century. Until the past decade, it has been seriously underrated as a global health threat. Major gaps exist in efforts to comprehend the burden nationally and globally, especially in developing nations, due to a lack of accurate data for monitoring and surveillance. Early attempts to obtain accurate data, discussed in this article, seem to have been cast aside so, at present, these needs remain unmet. Existing international efforts to assemble information fall far short of requirements. Current estimates are imprecise, only providing a rough picture, and probably underestimate the disease burden. The methodologies that are currently used, and that are discussed in this Perspectives article, are inadequate for providing a complete and accurate assessment of the prevalence of diabetes mellitus. International consensus on uniform standards and criteria for reporting national data on diabetes me...