Risks and Risk Reduction: A view from the South-eastern Flank (original) (raw)

Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction: NATO’s North-Eastern Flank Reacts to the War in Ukraine

Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction: NATO’s North-Eastern Flank Reacts to the War in Ukraine, 2022

This report is the third in a series of four reports that address the current threat assessments and perceptions of nuclear and conventional escalation risks in Eastern Europe and Russia. The report is part of the two-year project ‘Phase 2: Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction’ that BASIC is undertaking in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The workshop took place in Vilnius with participation of government officials and experts from all four countries. The workshop was held over two days one month after the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine and the workshop agenda was adapted to reflect the current situation. BASIC asked speakers and participants to discuss NATO’s deterrence and defence, risk reduction, off-ramps and humanitarian issues in light of the conflict in Ukraine and the impact this conceivably will have on NATO-Russia relations in the future.

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Strategy: Regional Perspectives from a 2019 Workshop

2019

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Security Threats Reflected in the Strategic Documents of Nato’s Eastern Member Countries

Strategic Impact

The aim of the paper is to identify and compare the main threats to the security of NATO member states situated on its Eastern border, as they are found in the strategic documents of NATO’s Eastern border member states and in document “NATO 2030: United for a New Era” at organisational level. The analysis is limited to the threats identified as such, not to the security risks or vulnerabilities. Thus, it is found that some of the former communist Eastern European countries, many of them part of NATO’s Eastern border, have in common the reminiscent threat related to Russia’s vicinity. However, NATO’s Eastern countries also have specific perceptions of security threats. For some of these countries, a threat reassessment is needed in order to include the results in their national security strategies. The same update needs to be reflected in NATO’s Strategic Concept, given the new challenges and the flare up of old ones.

European Parliament, DG for Extenal Policies, Policy Department, Study: Facing Russia’s strategic challenge: Security developments from the Baltic to the Black Sea

The EU and NATO are facing an increasingly uncertain and complex situation on their eastern and south-eastern borders. In what the EU has traditionally conceived as its ‘shared neighbourhood’ with Russia and NATO its ‘eastern flank’, Moscow is exhibiting a growingly assertive military posture. The context of the Baltic and the Black Sea regions differs, but Russia’s actions in both seem to be part of the same strategy aiming to transform the European security order and its sustaining principles. The Kremlin seems to follow similar policies and tactics, mainly through the militarisation of the Kaliningrad Oblast and Crimea as the centrepiece of its strategy of power projection vis-à-vis NATO and the EU. An all-out war remains an unlikely scenario, but frictions or accidents leading to an unwanted and uncontrolled escalation cannot be completely ruled out. Tensions and military developments take place in both the Baltic and Black seas, but are not only about them. Russia is testing the Euro-Atlantic response and resilience at large. To assess how far it might be willing to go, it is necessary to evaluate how Russia perceives the West and its actions, taking into account the deep and entrenched clash of perceptions between Brussels and Moscow, and the worldview of the latter.

Security in the Baltic Sea Region: activation of risk potential

A change in the Baltic Sea regional security situation has already taken place and is having direct and indirect impacts on the countries in the region. Potential risks to stability in the Baltic Sea Region have been activated, although they are not yet, and hopefully never will be actualized in the form of open military conflict. Russia’s self-perception as a target of Western aggression is a way to legitimize assertive foreign policy towards the West in general and to continue military posturing in the Baltic Sea Region, where both the risks and possible gains for Russia are the greatest. Considering the full-spectrum approach to conflict and the web of relationships that exists throughout the Baltic Sea Region, it is possible to conclude that beyond a certain point, all Baltic Sea littoral states will not only be impacted but drawn into a conflict occurring in the region.

Facing Russia's strategic challenge: Security developments from the Baltic to the Black Sea, DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

2017

The EU and NATO are facing an increasingly uncertain and complex situation on their eastern and southeastern borders. In what the EU has traditionally conceived as its 'shared neighbourhood' with Russia and NATO its 'eastern flank', Moscow is exhibiting a growingly assertive military posture. The context of the Baltic and the Black Sea regions differs, but Russia's actions in both seem to be part of the same strategy aiming to transform the European security order and its sustaining principles. The Kremlin seems to follow similar policies and tactics, mainly through the militarisation of the Kaliningrad Oblast and Crimea as the centrepiece of its strategy of power projection vis-à-vis NATO and the EU. An all-out war remains an unlikely scenario, but frictions or accidents leading to an unwanted and uncontrolled escalation cannot be completely ruled out. Tensions and military developments take place in both the Baltic and Black seas, but are not only about them. Russia is testing the Euro-Atlantic response and resilience at large. To assess how far it might be willing to go, it is necessary to evaluate how Russia perceives the West and its actions, taking into account the deep and entrenched clash of perceptions between Brussels and Moscow, and the worldview of the latter.

Deterrence and Defense in the Baltic Region: New Realities

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2022

Deterrence and Defense in the Baltic Region examines security requirements for the Baltic States and NATO in the context of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The war has provided an opportunity to understand the implications for NATO's eastern flank stemming from Russia's demonstrated willingness to use large-scale military force against another European nation, reassess pre-war assumptions concerning putative Russian military effectiveness, and to draw preliminary observations about Russian and Ukrainian combat performance. These observations help inform analysis about major aspects of defense of the Baltic region, with an emphasis on the key roles of precision-guided weapons. The authors conclude with a series of recommendations for the Baltic States, for NATO, and for the United States to enhance deterrence, defense, and security cooperation in Eastern Europe, with emphasis on the Baltic region.

The Russian wake-up call to Europe French, German and British security priorities

FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden's largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fi elds such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. This study analyses whether and how the three European great powers – France, the UK and Germany – have reacted to and remodelled their respective security and defence policies to the current security threats, especially Russia's challenge to the European security order. It also gives valuable insights on how the three view their role in international security landscape and within multilateral organisations, such as the EU and NATO. The study has been produced within the Nordic and Transatlantic Security Programme (NOTS) at FOI. NOTS studies security and military-strategic developments within three main areas: the Nordic and Baltic regions, the European major military powers and the foreign-, defence-and security policy of the United States. Defence economics, defence reform, capabilities and conditions for military operations in Northern Europe are also included in the f eld of study. Exercise patterns, different countries and relevant multilateral security organisations (NATO and EU) means of action of relevance to security in the Northern European region and possible consequences for Sweden also forms part of the studies.