Scheduling Transit Voyages of Vessels of Various Ice Classes Across the Northern Sea Route (original) (raw)
Related papers
The Time Window for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening On the Northern Sea Route
Annual of Navigation, 2016
The work discusses possibility to make transit voyages of vessels without ice strengthening on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Exist many uncertainties for it. They are related to hydro-meteorological conditions, mostly to ice cover on the Russian Arctic. Ice conditions are under dynamic changes in time and space. Is hard to precisely predict ice conditions now, in the time range of one month and so on. Statistical historical data of daily changes same like yearly changes show a considerable scatter of the data. The author analyzed number of ice-free days of particular seas of the NSR in the latest eight years. The results of this work may be used for estimation of time frame (time window) for transport of cargo on the NSR by means of vessels without ice strengthening. The statistical presentation of ice-free days data was used in the work to develop decision supporting method related to planning vessel voyage including ice-free time frame on particular seas of the Northern Sea Route.
Annual of Navigation, 2018
Vessels designed for navigation in ice can perform voyage with the assistance of icebreaker in the navigation season in case an ice cover area is less than 20%. Whereas the same vessels could carry out successfully completed voyage through the NSR with intensive icebreaker help at the ice-covered area lower than 42%. Navigation of the same vessel at ice covered area above 80% is possible with intensive icebreaker help, but it threatens to damage the hull, rudder or propeller. Excessive generalization of data analyzed may cause to wrong, even opposite conclusions. Using only basic statistical information in the form of average values and standard deviation may be not sufficient for the purpose of vessel’s voyage planning in areas covered with ice. Much more opportunities for the assessment of navigation in ice covered regions provides cumulative distribution, which should be related to the time and geographical space distribution. It allows to determine the duration of time window fo...
Assessment of safety and economy of navigation in ice on the Northen Sea route
AUTOBUSY – Technika, Eksploatacja, Systemy Transportowe, 2018
This article discusses safety and economic issues of sea transport during transit voyages of a vessel across the North Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic Ocean. The main obstacles to shipping and threat to vessels are the regions of ice occurrence and, in particular, clusters of ice with high and very high concentration, thickness and hummocking occurring each year in the same places, which are called ice massifs. Speed of vessels has the greatest impact on the economy of transit voyage. The safe speed of vessels, as a means of transport that ensures trouble-free navigation of the vessels depends on ice conditions. Until now, the concept of safe speed has not been precisely defined. Also, the impact of speed of the vessel in certain ice conditions on overcoming the ice and the risk of damage to vessel has not been precisely defined. Issues of direct and potential costs of vessel’s safety, damages and consequences of damages in ice were also not fully considered. The author analyzed the a...
Common solutions and challenges to the traverse of sea ice by ships
2015
The specific challenges of ship operations in sea ice-covered waters of the Arctic depend on factors including the purpose of the operation, the capabilities of the ship and equipment available, the degree of situational awareness and crew experience. Focusing on transits of sea ice in the waters of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), this study demonstrates that the solutions currently employed range from active route finding to accepting getting beset in ice, apparently depending on the purpose of operation. Challenges and operational constraints are discussed. The analysis is based on data provided by the NSR Administration, vessel motion data from satellite-borne receivers of Automatic Identification System signals (S-AIS data of AISSat-1), and sea ice products (AMSR2 ice concentration, ice charts). Travel times northeast of Severnaya Zemlya ranged from 1 to 6 days, depending on ice pressure. A statistical relationship between travel time and ice conditions has been obtained east of t...
TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 2016
The data related to ice floe concentration and ice thickness were analysed. Sources of data have been verified by visual observation and by comparison in between information from different remote sensing sources. The results of this work exceeded initial expectations. The discrepancies of the information provided by various data sources result from the error of the measurement method, which can be as high as 15% of the concentration of ice floes. It should also be borne in mind that the more generalized information about the state of the ice cover, the lower probability of detection of ice floe patches of a high concentration and spatial extent. Each vessel that is planning voyage in ice should take into consideration inaccurate estimation of concentration and thickness of ice floes received by means of satellite remote sensing methods. The method of determining permissible speed of various ice class vessel in ice on basis of safe speed graph for the icebreaker was developed. A well-defined equation approximates relationship between speed of the icebreaker and the vessels of specified ice classes. Average distance of 24.1 Nm from sea ice extent line was related to all analysed lines representing 30-40% ice floe concentration (IUP product excluded) and 30.6 Nm for analysed lines representing 70-81-91% ice floe concentration. The maximal average distance of the furthest analysed line (IUP product excluded) was equal 37.2 Nm. The average standard deviation of that results was equal 8.3 Nm only. Average distances of analysed lines from sea ice extent line to maximal ice data values were found as follow: 8.4 Nm (23%) for NSIDC-CCAR ice age, 12.3 Nm (33%) for minimal distance of 30-40% ice concentration, 15.4 Nm (41%) for OSISAF ice type "ambiguous" zone from Open Water side, 25 Nm (67%) for minimal distance of 70-81-91% ice concentration, 26.6 Nm (72%) for OSISAF ice type "ambiguous" zone from 1st year ice age side, 35.9 Nm (97%) for maximal distance of 30-40% ice concentration and 36.3 Nm (98%) for maximal distance of 70-81-91% ice concentration data. In the parentheses placed relative distances from first ice data including IUP 40% concentration isolines. Sea ice extent of most of available data sources delineated the edge of "area to be avoided" for vessels of ice class lower than L1. Estimated average speed of L3 ice class vessel was from 3.3 knots till 5.2 knots at average speed 5.0 knots. For L1 ice class vessel estimated average speed was from 6.5 knots till 12.1 knots at average speed 9.7 knots. Relative standard deviation of averaged speed for both ice class vessels was equal 18%. The highest relative deviations were found up to 50% below the average speed value. The highest relative deviations upward were equal 22%. Above speeds for L3 and L1 ice class vessels corresponded well with average technical speed of "Norilsk SA-15" ULA class vessel equal 12,6 knots. The results of the work were not intended to be used for decision making on spot-"on-scene"-during direct guiding vessel in ice. They should be useful for initial voyage planning to allow decision-makers to identify the best freely available data sources for considered voyage and vessel of defined ice class; to understand advantages and limitations of available in the internet data sources; to estimate vessel's maximal safe speed in encountered ice conditions, to estimate spatial distribution and correlations in between various levels of sea ice concentration and thickness. All above data allow estimate voyage time that is, in addition to fuel consumption, basic criterion of maritime transport economics.
A method for ice-aware maritime route optimization
2014 IEEE/ION Position, Location and Navigation Symposium - PLANS 2014, 2014
We present a method for ice-aware maritime route optimization. Our aim is to increase the safety and efficiency of maritime transport under icy conditions. The proposed method is based on the A* algorithm, developed by Hart et al. It uses a model of maritime navigation, consisting of (1) a sea spatial model, (2) ship maneuverability model, (3) sea ice model, and (4) ship performance model. The sea ice model, which provides a snapshot of the sea ice conditions, is based on previous work by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The ship performance model, based on previous work by Kotovirta et al., estimates ship transit speed as a function of ice conditions and ship design parameters.
An Analysis of Sea Ice Conditions to Determine Ship Transits through the Northwest Passage
2010
An analysis was carried out to determine the duration of the summer shipping season for deepwater vessels transiting through the Northwest Passage Route. The most likely route segment to obstruct shipping is in Viscount Melville Sound, which is typically characterized by the presence of high concentration mixtures of deformed, thick first year and multiyear ice. The period for ship transits through the Passage is determined from the computer-based analysis of digital Canadian Ice Service weekly ice charts which are available from the late 1960's to the present. Automated computer-based algorithms were developed to estimate the number of, if any, weeks with ice conditions successfully allow transit. The results show a very large year to year variability in the duration of the summer shipping season with the trend towards slightly improving ice conditions. The possibility of future increases in old ice concentrations in western and central portions of Parry Channel due to an apparent trend towards more rapid passage of this old ice through the Queen Elizabeth Islands to the north may impede ship passages in the next decade by comparison with the last decade or two.
A system for route optimization in ice-covered waters
Cold Regions Science and Technology, 2009
Information about ice is indispensable to navigation in ice-covered sea areas. For vessels traveling long distances in ice, it is worth planning routes that will reduce fuel consumption and travel time, as well as the risk of ending up in hazardous areas or getting stuck in the ice. In addition to observations on board, there is a multitude of data sources available for seafarers like satellite images, ice model data, weather observations and forecasts. However, it is difficult for a human to take into consideration all the time-varying data parameters when planning a route. In this paper, a prototype system for optimizing routes through the ice field is presented. The system integrates state-of-the-art ice modeling, ship transit modeling, and an enduser system as a route optimization tool for vessels navigating in ice-covered waters. The system has recently been validated on board merchant vessels in the Baltic Sea, and the system's performance has been analyzed statistically using AIS data. Based on the AIS data analysis the mean relative error of the estimated transit time was 0.144 [s/s] with a standard deviation of 0.147 [s/s] for long routes (90-650 km), and 0.018 [s/s] with standard deviation of 0.193 [s/s] for 50 km route segments.
Decision Support Framework for Exploiting Northern Sea Route Transport Opportunities
Ship Technology Research, 2012
This paper presents a decision-support model identifying the most viable ice class for a liner vessel transiting along the Northern Sea Route. As input, this model requires parameters, some of which are uncertain. These include the time-dependent length of the Northern Sea Route sailing season and corresponding roundtrip times, the additional capital expenditure and operational expenditure for ice class capabilities for the vessel, as well as fuel price. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the model is discussed on the perspective ice extent, respectively the ice class allowed to enter the Northern Sea Route and possible delays, on the basis of current trend predictions.