Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle (original) (raw)

Money Demand: The Guide to Monetary Policy in Russia, 1997-2020

2020

We estimate a short-run demand function, using the quarterly data available for modern Russian market on the one-quarter basis for 1997-2020. Empirical results provide a stable money demand function that explains the short-run money velocity movement. The approach is based on econometric models and dynamic least square methods evaluation within the Akaike criterion applied for the authors’ choice of leads and lags. The prior innovation related to model comparison of interest rates in money demand function – from research-common money market rate to interbank market rate, amplifying proxy better-fitted for the Russian market.

Money Demand in Post-Crisis Russia: De-Dollarisation and Re-Monetisation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Estimating money demand functions for Russia following the 1998 crisis, we find a stable money demand relationship when augmented by a deterministic trend signifying falling velocity. As predicted by theory, higher income boosts demand for real rouble balances and the income elasticity of money is close to unity. Inflation affects the adjustment towards equilibrium, while broad money shocks lead to higher inflation. We also show that exchange rate fluctuations have a considerable influence on Russian money demand. The results indicate that Russian monetary authorities have been correct in using the money stock as an information variable and that the strong influence of exchange rate on money demand is likely to continue despite de-dollarisation of the Russian economy.

Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia

Journal of Comparative Economics, 2005

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Money demand in dollarized economies often appears to be highly unstable, making it difficult to forecast and control inflation. In this paper, we show that a stable money demand function for Russia can be found for "effective broad money," which includes an estimate of foreign cash holdings. Moreover, we find that an excess supply of effective broad money is inflationary, while other excess money measures are not, and that effective broad money growth has the strongest and most persistent effect on short-run inflation.

Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates

Economic Analysis and Policy

We revisit the issue of stable demand for money, using quarterly data for the European Monetary Union, India, Israel, Poland, the UK, and the US. We use the same linear modeling and specification approach that had previously cast doubt on money demand stability. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration models are used in the study to establish a long-term relationship between real money balances and real output, interest rate, and real effective exchange rate. For all the countries analyzed, evidence of the existence of stable demand for money is found. Broad money in general is better at capturing a stable demand for money than narrow money. The stability results are especially strong, when broad Divisia money is used instead of its simple sum counterpart.

Divisia monetary aggregate and monetary transmission mechanism in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Applied Economics Letters, 2019

While the majority on the effectiveness of monetary policies focus on either interest or money channels, we analyze the effectiveness of a composite monetary instrument: The Divisia Aggregate Index (DMAI). Dynamic effects of the DMAI on other economic factors is analyzed through the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive model (FAVAR). The latter address the potential arbitrary selection of variables to incorporate in a standard VAR model, and is built from the ability of factor analysis to summarize a very high number of variables into few factors. The FAVAR is applied to monthly data over the period 01:1996-12:2017 from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our empirical results reveal that the DMAI outperforms other monetary policy instruments that use separately interest or money channels, in boosting output and triggering price stability.

Demand for money during transition: the case of Russia

During the transition to a market economy in Russia, the Bank of Russia assumed responsibility for setting and implementing monetary policy. As transition progressed, this involved establishing annual declining target rates for inflation and intermediate targets for the growth rate of M2 money aggregate. This paper tests the stability of long run and short run demand for money in Russia using M1 and M2 money aggregates. We find some evidence of stability, but the adjustment lag is relatively long and money demand functions demonstrate signs of instability over the period. We conclude that targeting interest rates could be a better policy option for the Bank of Russia.

Author's personal copy Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks

Russian monetary policy has failed persistently to achieve sustained low inflation, both in absolute terms and relative to the peer group of countries similarly exiting from Soviet-style central planning. This paper explores the reasons for this state of affairs by analysing the kind of monetary policy that has been pursued by the central bank during the period 1995 to 2009. Our contribution is to search for a possible transmission channel between the real interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, output growth and foreign reserve growth, after having controlled for the effect of oil price inflation. Using a vector autoregressive model in error-correction form and using sign restrictions methodology, we show that the monetary authorities' failure to abate double-digit inflation appears to be driven by the policy of exchange rate targeting, as reflected in our identified exchange rate shocks.

Monetary policy transmission and Bank of Russia monetary policy

The present study analysed monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Russia in the period of July 1995-September 2004. Bank of Russia officially implements inflation targeting and in its "General foundations of monetary policy" declares monetary base and monetary aggregate M2 as its operational and intermediate targets and policy instruments, insisting that using interest rate as a policy tool would be inefficient due to underdevelopment of financial system. Such position assumes controllability of monetary base, stability of money multiplier, and existence and stability of money demand function. In order to check the implicit assumptions of the monetary policy conduct of the Bank of Russia the SVECM model was constructed, involving monetary aggregate M2, price level, real total trade as a proxy for output, interbank interest rate and average monthly exchange rate, with one cointegrating relation estimated. The estimated cointegrating relation was recognised to be a long-...