Changes in heat related mortality in Vienna based on regional climate models (original) (raw)

The development of mortality due to heat stress in Vienna was assesses by using two regional climate models in the emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described using the human-biometeorological index PET. Two approaches were applied, to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes compared to 1971-2000 were found. In the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129 % until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41° C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notably. This encourages the need for additional adaptation measurements.