Changes in heat related mortality in Vienna based on regional climate models (original) (raw)
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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2010
The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the humanbiometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970-2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970-2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.
International Journal of …, 2010
The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the humanbiometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970-2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970-2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.
Climate and Mortality in Vienna and Impact of Climate Change
For the period 1970-2007, the relationship between heat stress and mortality in Vienna was analyzed using a human biometeorological thermal index. Using the PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) at 14 CET mortality is significant below the baseline for days with PET = 41°C) an additional mortality of +13.0 % was found. The sensitivity to heat stress is significantly higher for women and for patients with cardiovascular diseases. To assess the impact of climate change on the heat-related mortality, we used the two regional climate models REMO and CLM and the emissions scenarios A1B and B1. The heat related mortality was assessed by one scenario without any long-term adaptation and one scenario including continuous long-term adaptation. In both scenarios, heat-related mortality could increase until 2071-2100. Till 2011-2040 no significant changes to the period of examination were found. Adaptation measures should focus on the extreme heat days (PET >= 41°C), were the mortali...
Relation between climate and mortality in Vienna based on human-biometeorological data
The relation between heat stress and mortality has been analyzed for the period 1970-2007 in Vienna. PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) was applied, to assess heat stress in a thermo-physiological manner. A significant increase of mortality was found for days with PET ≥ 29° C at 14 CET. For lower PET the mortality between April-October is significant below the baseline (-1.8 %). The highest values occur on days with extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41° C) with +13 %. The mortality of women during heat stress is significant higher compared to men, and a slight increase was found for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, compared to the overall mortality.
International journal of …, 2009
Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate cityspecific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max ) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. 'Threshold temperatures' above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in 'cooler' cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in 'warmer' cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual 'heat waves' illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperaturemortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).
Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation
International journal of …, 2007
Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate cityspecific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max ) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. 'Threshold temperatures' above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in 'cooler' cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in 'warmer' cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual 'heat waves' illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperaturemortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).
International Journal of Biometeorology, 2008
Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office
Geographia Polonica, 2013
In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21st century, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI-M-REMO-ECHAM5 and DMI-HIRHAM5-ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutive days of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3-day heat waves will rise by 370% and after 2070 -460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model.