The State of War Peace in Afghanistan (original) (raw)

Afghanistan: Changing Dynamics of Peace and Conflict

The Great Power Competition Volume 1, 2021

As the world increasingly becomes embroiled in the struggle to counter the Coronavirus pandemic and face the resulting economic slowdown, Afghanistan enters yet another uncertain time. The country is on the verge of another transition that could lead either to a peaceful and stable future or descent into yet another cycle of violence. The challenges are great and evolving, the political context is changing, and uncertainties are compounding. Afghanistan's future depends on its internal political cohesiveness and positive and constructive interaction of its neighbors, other regional players, and the great powers whose direct and indirect engagement in Afghanistan has shaped the current situation in the country. The U.S.-Taliban Peace Agreement provides the basis for a process to bring peace in Afghanistan through direct talks among the Afghans. Its success, however, depends on its full implementation and close synchronization of different elements of the process including a comprehensive ceasefire, withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, the removal of the Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistani territory, progress in direct peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, and long-term assistance to Afghanistan to ensure that the foreign troop withdrawal does not lead to collapse of the government.

Afghanistan in the Snare of External Power Struggle

Strategic Studies

The new Afghanistan policy of the US President, Donald Trump, has once again manifested the problems of country for all domestic, regional and international players in Afghanistan. A few American’s partners and allies supported it, including India and UK, while many seem uncomfortable with it, particularly, Pakistan. Indeed, lack of consensus among the major powers not only undermines the peace process in Afghanistan, but also could very well lead to a new power struggle in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, both the neighbouring states and great powers have competing interests in Afghanistan and all desires to maximize their influence in Afghanistan affairs to pursue their objectives. This article will elaborate the US Afghan strategy announced by President Trump and the interests of major powers and regional states including the US, Russia, China, India, Iran and Pakistan in Afghanistan by examining the complexities of conflict within Afghanistan induced by the convoluted power politics ...

Afghanistan: In Search for an Alternative Route to Stability

Global Policy, 2017

After the US invasion of Afghanistan, while there were some successes in fighting international terrorists in the region, Western attempts at state-building in Afghanistan remain a dismal failure. After years of Western military involvement, the Taliban insurgency today shows no signs of operational decay or a possible defeat. This article argues that Western engagement in Afghanistan only prolongs civil strife and makes room for more radical elements such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) to gain a robust foothold in Afghanistan. Domestic conflicts, with the past involvement of the former Soviet Union and the ongoing Western intervention, have bruised and traumatized Afghan society. What the country now needs is a different form of political process that makes peace and reconciliation a top priority. A transition to a peace process will face multiple hurdles, but given their military and economic sacrifices in Afghanistan, the US and its allies should not flinch, but rather face the challenges boldly

Looking towards Peace in Afghanistan after the US-NATO Withdrawal

2021

Paper abstracts and summaries of remarks are provided below as a reference for conference attendees. Research presented at the conference will undergo revisions as part of the editing process by CHS to produce an edited volume by the end of the year. Panel 1: Complexities of the Formal Peace Process Faiz Zaland Complexities of the Formal Peace Process in Afghanistan Over the past few months, numerous qualitative changes have taken place in the peace process of Afghanistan. This includes the on-going high level of violence, lack of political consensus in Kabul, trust deficit among the two sides, the hasty US troop withdrawal for September 2021, the conquering strategy of Taliban and national as well as regional spoilers playing a more proactive role in destabilizing the current momentum of the peace process. Therefore, this research paper will comprehensively analyse the complexities of the formal peace process in Afghanistan that have affected the optimism for the process. This pape...

The future of peace in Afghanistan is rooted in lessons from the past

The future of peace in Afghanistan is rooted in lessons from the past, 2019

In the complexity that has arisen from decades of conflict, with the multitude of actors aligning themselves on ethnic lines and the lack of national Afghan unity, reaching a consensus is proving to be nearly impossible. However, it seems that the future of Afghanistan will be played out by two main internal actors; the Taliban and the Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani, an independent politician. And yet, there is little to no interaction between the Taliban and the government as the Taliban does not recognize the government as a legitimate entity, and the government does not appreciate the Taliban’s political momentum with other States. By engaging in talks with foreign governments and Afghan elites, the Taliban is gaining political credibility that is undermining Ghani’s government.

Afghanistan through Transitional Decade: Role of Major Powers: An Analytical Overview

What Afghanistan looks like in 2025 shall be determined by the way major world power drive it through the decade of transition . Heavy dependence of Afghanistan on foreign aid and facilitation for even routine functioning preludes the possibility that the Afghan government(s) shall be able to take independent course on any major role of the state or government. These powers foreign shall be cooperating as well as competing to achieve individual as well as collective goals. Beside powers with global reach in terms of military power projection and economic clouts, some immediate and near neighbours of Afghanistan are also well positioned to influence and shape the events to a varying degree . The 2015-25 decade is important in the context of ongoing transitions i.e. political, military and economic . Afghanistan is not in a position to handle any of these transitions single-handedly. International community shall have to join hands to create enabling environment so that Afghanistan could not only stand on its feet but also be able to, at least, walk at its own by 2025. It is indeed a tall order, global politics are not so simplistic to let such transitions happen smoothly. Afghanistan came under immense focus when President Obama appointed late Richard Holbrook as his special representative for Afghanistan; nearly a dozen countries quickly followed the suite. Nevertheless, the effort fizzled soon, as most of these counties chose to tow American line, the pattern is likely to continue. Likewise, there are over a dozen regional and global venues and forums that claim special focus on Afghanistan, but have not been able to come-out with any out of box quick fixes. Apparently Afghanistan appears destined to handle with the debris of the conflict for a pretty long spell, like any other insurgency and civil war impacted state and society . With multiple power centres comprising government, non-government as well as non-state entities, govern-ability of Afghan government shall continue to remain marginal. Drawdown has come without ensuring sufficient grounding of a viable political power sharing arrangement. With powerful militant groups left without inclusion in political process, insurgent entities may continue jockeying between peace process and militant struggle. Unless these loose ends are tied promptly, the ‘decade of transformation’ may become decade of lost opportunities for Afghanistan, marred by “fighting seasons” and “talking spells” alternating and cancelling each-others’ gains. If the international support and political will of the Afghan political leadership are able to function in synergy, then by the end of the period under review, Afghanistan may be able to accrue essential elements of national security sufficiently and in a sustainable manner. Either way, the involved processes shall be quite bumpy, requiring tenacious Afghan leadership—both political and military. Nevertheless, onus to lead and succeed intra-Afghan peace and reconciliation processes rests squarely on the incumbent Afghan government(s) during this period. This would require due pragmatism to take difficult decisions and ability to sell it amongst the Afghan people, across traditional ethno-sectarian divides.

. Afghanistan From US Occupation toward transition

This research work is an effort to analyze the Afghanistan peace process from a transition perspective. According to Aljazeera," after 18 months of talks and nearly 20 years of war, the Taliban and the United States of America have signed an agreement aimed at paving the way for peace in Afghanistan and the departure of foreign troops" Intra-Afghan negotiations followed the US-Taliban peace agreement after fulfilling the preconditions by both Taliban and the Afghan government. Previously, U.S. denied direct negotiations with the Taliban but in 2017 Trump Administration revised its Afghan policy and started direct negotiations with the Taliban. Similarly, the Taliban was not ready to negotiate with the U.S. until the full withdrawal of foreign forces. In the same fashion, Talibanwasn't ready to sit at the same table with a " puppe" government. If successful, the said process will initiate the transition from where Afghanistan either could transform itself or the history of the 1990s could repeat itself. Afghanistan has witnessed a transition in the 90s, which was featured by a destructive civil war.

Afghanistan Political Challenges and Perspectives 2016-2019

European Parliament Presentation: Afghanistan - Challenges and Perspectives until 2020

Afghanistan’s National Unity Government (NUG) has grown fragmented and ineffective, and is in the grip of political paralysis. The country is in a precarious state, experiencing simultaneous and mutually reinforcing political, socio-economic and security crises from which it has difficulty escaping. Unless the NUG and the National Assembly can set aside personal and sub-national interests in favour of national interests, it is unlikely that they will be able to effectively address the country’s myriad woes. At the same time, popular discontent with the NUG continues to grow amid poor prospects for employment and security, and continuing rampant corruption. The Afghan government does not use foreign political and financial support effectively enough. Looking ahead to 2017-2019, it is unlikely that the NUG will collapse, instead it will ‘muddle through’ ineffectively. Given the political crisis and current changes in the international environment, the prospects for an immediate peace settlement are slight. The EU and the international community’s continued political and financial support to Afghanistan pledged at the October 2016 Brussels Conference is pivotal to Afghanistan’s stability. The EU, and stakeholders, are recommended to consider greater engagement in alleviating tensions in South Asia through the facilitation of dialogue. Pp. 19-24