The Unpredictability of Contemporary Global Conflicts (original) (raw)

2009, 43. Jahrbuch 2007/08, Diplomatiche Akademie Wien: 224-246, Vienna, Austria.

AI-generated Abstract

The talk discusses the increasing unpredictability of global conflicts in the contemporary era, contrasting it with the more predictable bipolar world of the Cold War. It emphasizes that the current landscape, influenced by factors like terrorism and the escalation of risks, defies precise forecasting, and that international relations have become inherently more complex. The speaker shares concerns about the absence of effective deterrents against non-state actors and expresses skepticism about the ability of existing models to predict future conflicts, highlighting the need for caution and a deeper understanding of political dynamics.

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