Distribution, Risk Factors, and Temporal Trends for Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality (original) (raw)

Chest, 2022

Abstract

Lung cancer ranked second for cancer incidence and first for cancer mortality. The investigation on its risk factors and epidemiologic trends could help describe geographical distribution and identify high-risk population groups. What is the global incidence, mortality, associated risk factors, and temporal trends of lung cancer by sex, age, and country? Data on incidence and mortality were retrieved from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN), Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series I-X (CI5), WHO mortality database, the Nordic Cancer Registries (NORDCAN), and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER). We searched the WHO Global Health Observatory data repository for age-adjusted prevalence of current smoking. The Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) of the trends were obtained by Joinpoint Regression. The age-standardized rate of incidence and mortality were 22.4 and 18.0 per 100,000 globally. The lung cancer incidence and mortality were associated with Human Development Index (HDI), Gross Domestics Products (GDP), and prevalence of smoking. For incidence, more countries had increasing trends in females but decreasing trends in males (AAPC: 1.06 to 6.43 for female; -3.53 to -0.64 for male). Similar pattern was found in those ≥50 years, while those aged <50 years had declining incidence trends in both sexes in most countries. For mortality, similar to incidence, 17/48 countries showed decreasing trends in males and increasing trends in females (AAPC: -3.28 to -1.32 for male, 0.63 to 3.96 for female). Most countries had increasing trends in females but decreasing trends in males and in lung cancer incidence and mortality. Tobacco related measures and screening should be implemented to control the increasing trends of lung cancer in females, and in regions identified as having these trends. Future studies may explore the reasons behind these epidemiological transitions.

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