Model estimasi debit aliran sungai berdasarkan perubahan penggunaan lahan di sub-DAS Ciliwung Hulu, Jawa Barat (original) (raw)
River stream Change is influenced by changing of land use area. The objectives of this research are: (1) Describing land use conversion influencing river stream in Ciliwung Upstream; (2) Developing the pattern of land use change in Sub River Basin (SRB) of Ciliwung Upstream; (3) Measuring influence of land use to maximum diccharge, minimum discharge, difference of maximum-minimum discharge, and an Index of Water Regim (IOWR) during year 1981-2001; and (4) Developing the prediction models of land use change in relation to maximum discharge, minimum discharge, difference of maximum and minimum discharge and an IOWR. The Analysis used in this research are the linear regression growth model, Pearson Product-Moment correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and multiple regression. Monthly rainfall has significantly influencing to monthly charge change. However, annual rainfall is significantly influence only to average discharge and minimum discharge, and not significantly influence to IOWR, maximum discharge and difference of maximum and minimum discharge. The change is significantly influenced by some land use conversion. PCA result shows that discharge changes are significantly influence by intensive land use and rainfall changing. Multiple regression analysis shows that land use has significantly effecting to difference maximum and minimum river discharge, based on degree of influence (β) of landuse from the biggest to the smallest are mixed garden/backyard > forest > rice field > and settlement respectively. Decreasing of forest area and paddy field area increasing of difference maximum and minimum river discharge. However, increasing of settlement area and mixed garden are increasing difference maximum and minimum discharge. Condition of trends SRB of Ciliwung Upstream is getting to worse due to increasing level of maximum-minimum discharge difference and IOWR value during 1981 to 2001.
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