Impact of COVID-19 on Tuberculosis Indicators in Brazil: A Time Series and Spatial Analysis Study (original) (raw)
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PLOS ONE
Background Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants is of concern to health authorities worldwide and is even more critical in Brazil, considering the country´s size and long land borders. The aim of the study was to identify critical areas in Brazil for migrants diagnosed with TB and to describe the temporal trend in this phenomenon in recent years. Methods This is an ecological study that used spatial analysis and time series analysis. As the study population, all cases of migrants diagnosed with TB from 2014 to 2019 were included, and Brazilian municipalities were considered as the unit of ecological analysis. The Getis-Ord Gi* technique was applied to identify critical areas, and based on the identified clusters, seasonal-trend decomposition based on loess (STL) and Prais-Winsten autoregression were used, respectively, to trace and classify temporal trend in the analyzed series. In addition, several municipal socioeconomic indicators were selected to verify the association between the iden...
2020
BACKGROUNDTuberculosis is the leading cause of global deaths from a single infectious agent. This study aimed to identify areas of spatial and space-time risk for pulmonary tuberculosis, to identify areas with variation in the temporal tendency for this event, and to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in one municipality. METHODSAn ecological study carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population consisted of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 to 2017. To check the behavior of tuberculosis over the period, the Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were used to identify risk areas, and Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect clusters with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situ...
2021
Objective: to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in the state of Piauí. Method: ecological, retrospective study, with data available from the COVID-19 Epidemiological Panel Piauí. A time series of cases and deaths accumulated monthly was constructed and incidence, mortality and lethality rates were calculated and choropleth maps were constructed using Quantum GIS, version 2.18.6. Results: in March 2020, three cases were recorded, without death, reaching September 2020 with 90,370 cases and 2,037 deaths, with a slight reduction in the growth of rates from August. Teresina presented the second lowest incidence coefficient of the state, the second highest mortality coefficient and the highest lethality. Conclusion: there was a wide growth of the pandemic in the state, especially until August 2020, with lethality within the expected, and the spatial distribution of cases and deaths concentrated in the capital and surroundings, evidencing the need for strong preventive...
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2021
The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regar...
2021
Background: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a city in northeast Brazil. Methods: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men a...
BMC Infectious Diseases
Objectives To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city. Methods An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality. Results Between 2006 and 2017, 1760 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in the municipality. With spatial scanning, four groups of clusters were ...
PLOS ONE, 2021
The World Health Organization declared, at the end of 2019, a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus that causes Coronavirus Disease—COVID-19. Currently, Brazil has become the epicenter of the disease, registering approximately 345 thousand deaths. Thus, the study has scientific relevance in health surveillance as it identifies, quantifies and monitors the main behavioral patterns of the mortality rate due to COVID-19, in Brazil and in their respective regions. In this context, the study aims to assess the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: a time series study, referring to the year 2020. This is an ecological time series study, constructed using secondary data. The research was carried out in Brazil, having COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable that occurred between the 12th and 53rd Epidemiological Week of 2020. The independent variable will be the epidemiological weeks. The data on deaths by COVID-19 were extracted in February 2021, on the Civil ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
Background: In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the "post-2015 End TB strategy", that aims to end the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted global public health and the strict measures to control the coronavirus spread can affect the management of other diseases, such as TB. Herein, we aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of TB in Brazil, during 2020. Methods: We carried out an ecological and population-based study, using spatial analysis techniques. The variables used were the new cases of TB, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and also baciloscopy-positive (BP) cases in Brazil between 2015 and 2020. The percentage of changes (% change) was calculated to verify if there was an increase or decrease of TB cases in 2020, along with time trend analyses given by Joinpoint regression model. Also, interrupted time series analyses were used to assess the trend of TB diagnosis before and after the onset of the COVID-19 in Brazil. Spatial distribution maps were elaborated, considering the % change of each Brazilian state. Findings: Data analyses showed a reduction in the diagnosis of TB (−8.3%) and PTB (−8.1%) in Brazil after the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, 22 states depicted a reduction in TB diagnosis. An expressive reduction of BP cases (−17.1%) was also observed. Interestingly, interrupted time series analysis showed decline in TB and PTB diagnoses from March 2020. Spatial analyses revealed that all states had a progressive reduction of TB, PTB and PB cases, from March on, with the highest percentages of reduction in December (−100% to −75%).
Brazilian Journal of Development
The entire world is still trying to understand and stop the spread of the COVID-19 disease. It is known that the evolution of human mobility associated with economic, geographic and demographic factors have caused differences in the spatial spread of the new coronavirus in distinct countries and regions and has also contributed to the rapid spread of the disease. The characterization of the spatial patterns of disease spreading involves environmental and social factors. In this context, we used statistical tools to investigate the spatial distribution of the incidence and mortality rates over time in two of the most populous Brazilian states: São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Our results show an spatial dependence among micro-regions related to incidence and mortality rates but with different spatial autocorrelations in both states. We used the VAR model to verify this causal relationship among the micro-units that showed spatial dependence. We found that there is a feedback relationshi...
Space-time analysis of the first year of COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia, 2021
ABSTRACT: Objective: To describe the space-time evolution of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the Rio de Janeiro municipality, Brazil, during the first year of the pandemic. Methods: An ecological study was carried out. The units of analysis were the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro. Incidence and mortality rates, excess risk, Global Moran's Index (Moran's I), local indicator for spatial association, standardized incidence ratio, and standardized mortality ratio were estimated for neighborhoods in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. Results: Over the first year of the pandemic, registries in the city of Rio de Janeiro included 204,888 cases and 19,017 deaths due to COVID-19. During the first three months of the pandemic, higher incidence rates were verified in the municipality compared with the state of Rio de Janeiro and Brazil, in addition to higher mortality rates compared with the state of Rio de Janeiro and Brazil from May 2020 to February 2021. Bonsucesso...