Assessment of climate change impact on pulse, oilseed and vegetable crops at Varanasi, India (original) (raw)
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Assessment of climate change impact on productivity of different cereal crops in Varanasi, India
Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.5) Cropping System Model (CSM) was used to study the impact of climate change and variability on productivity of different kharif (rice, maize, jowar and bajra) and rabi crops (wheat and barley) at Varanasi. Keeping in view the observed trends in climate variability, productivity of different kharif and rabi crops were simulated under plausible synthetic climatic scenarios of changes in temperature, solar radiation and carbon dioxide. Productivity of kharif crops viz. rice, maize, jowar and bajra and rabi crops viz. wheat, and barley decreased with an increase in temperature or a decrease in solar radiation above normal. However, productivity of different kharif and rabi crops increased under expected enhanced CO2 concentrations. Highest productivity decreased in barley crop (40.7%) of rabi season and minimum in rice crop (5%) of kharif season with an increase of 3.0 0C in temperature from normal. Whereas, maximum productivity decreased in barley crop (5.0%) of rabi season and minimum in jowar crop (1.8%) of kharif season with a decrease of 2.5 per cent in solar radiation from normal. Highest productivity increase in barley crop (58.2%) of rabi season and lowest in jowar crop (4.2%) of kharif season were simulated under expected enhanced CO2 concentration of 660 ppm. The maximum decrease in productivity of barley crop (45%) in rabi season and minimum in rice crop (7%) in kharif season were simulated when a decrease in temperature by 3 0C and solar radiation by 2.5 per cent from normal. Highest counter-balance on productivity of rice crop (13%) in kharif season and lowest in barja crop (-23%) of kharif season were simulated when an increase in temperature by 3 0C from normal under expected enhanced CO2 concentration of 660 ppm.
2009
The vulnerability to climate change is greater in developing countries like Indiawhich are mostly located in lower, warmer latitudes. Climatic data of different stations of Gujarat have been analyzed to ascertain the climatic change/variability in the state and its likely impact on crop production using crop models. The long period rainfall analysis showed slight increase in annual rainfall by 2.86 mm per year. The rainfall intensity in terms of daily maximum rainfall also showed increasing trend. The rate of maximum temperature increase was between 0.2 to 0.5°C per decade, maximum being in summer season. Similarly, the minimum temperature was found to increase but with slightly lower rate of 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade in different seasons. The calibrated DSSAT-3.5 models were used to simulate the wheat and maize yield under hypothetical weather condition that may be arising due to climate change. The climate scenario simulated for temperatures (± 1 to ± 3°C), radiation (± 1 to ± 3 MJm...
International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering
The potential consequences of climate change emanated from global warming are very alarming; the greatest concern is the potentially disastrous consequences on crop agriculture and food security in many parts of the world. Bangladesh is a country highly susceptible to climate change, but information in this regard is still inadequate. This study investigated the effects of climate change on three major crops-wheat, potato and rice-in the north-central region of Bangladesh. Two climate change scenarios, A2 and B2, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were generated by employing MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with the observed climate data of the region. The growth and yield of the crops were simulated using DSSAT CERES-Wheat, SUBSTOR-Potato and CERES-Rice models under the present and projected future changing climatic conditions. For a predicted 5.32ºC increase in temperature in the year 2100, the yield of wheat, rice and potato would decrease by 47.6%, 67.8% and 38.6%, respectively. The increased temperature would accelerate physiological maturity of the crops as reflected by their reduced length of growing season (LGS) by 1.20% to 18.5%. The reduced LGS would reduce seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of the crops by shortening time-span for ET generation. Due to dominant yield reduction over ET reduction, the water use efficiency (WUE) for grain/tuber and biomass yields would decrease with the changing climate. The reduced crop yields are an indicative of a potential future risk of food security in Bangladesh. The results of this study can therefore guide to adopt coping mechanisms in the light of climate change to ensure future food security of the country.
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Climatic Change, 2006
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Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Different Crops Grown in Cachar District of Assam, India
Archives of Agriculture and Environmental Science, 2017
Impact of climate change on crop yield threatens food security which is detrimental to agricultural sector. Cachar district of Assam is a climate susceptible district due to its unique geographical location and hydrological regime in northeastern India. So, the present study was carried out to assess impact of climate change on crop yield for sustainability of agriculture. Climatic data viz., rainfall, maximum-minimum temperature and sunshine hours were collected from an observatory of Tea Research Association, Silcoorie, Cachar district for 2007-2012. Statistical and correlation analysis was employed to evaluate potential climate change impact on productivity of twenty three major crops of the study site. The correlation coefficient (r, Pearson's Product Moment) between any climatic parameter and crop yield implied that climate has strong linear correlation with yield of crops resulting in twenty-two strong correlations. Among the climatic parameters rainfall was found to have most significant impact on yield. Noteworthy reduction was observed in yield of Autumn Paddy and Winter Paddy by 8.75 and 20.44 during the year 2008-2009 due to 3.98 and 36.22% decrease of rainfall with r values 0.95 and-0.76, respectively. Also, a quantum leap of 145.32% increase of rainfall during Rabi season of 2007-2008 decreased the yield of Potato and Rabi vegetables by 22.96 and 16.89%, respectively. The study revealed that climate change has significant impact on crop yield which could be alleviated by adopting rainwater harvesting technology at the top and foot hills of the hilly areas.
Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Yield: Evidence from Odisha, India
This paper explores the impact of climate variables such as temperature and rainfall on yields of seven selected crops such as rice, maize, groundnuts, rapeseed & mustard, chickpea, Pigeonpea and sesame during the period 1970-2014. We used panel data for 45 years to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture yield. In the presence of auto-correlation and Heteroscedasticity we estimate the panel corrected standard error with a fixed effect panel regression. The regression results reinforce that crop yields of the selected crops are susceptible to climate change. The relative magnitude of rainfall and temperature changes appears to play a pivotal role in determining the direction of change in the yield. It is also observed that the rainfall has significant positive effects on the yields of all the selected crops under study. In case of temperature, we observed mix results for the selected crops under study. However, the extent of increase in the temperature appears to be more harmful for the crop yields. Further, the non-climatic factors like irrigation and fertilizers were found to be very instrumental in increasing the yields of the selected crops. In the light of negative effects of climate change, appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies are required to delve with the deteriorative effects of climate change. 1. Backdrops Climate change is the buzz word which has received considerable attention in this century due to its potential impacts on the whole Earth system. It is the greatest challenge that the human civilization is ever facing in the 21 st century with various implications on agriculture, industry, natural resources, human habitations, and health status. Since the climate change alters temperature and precipitation worldwide with variation from place to place, these changes required to be quantified regionally and locally for its understanding and better management at local level. Odisha is one of the coastal states of India and its economy closely tied to its natural resource base and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, the state may face a major economic threat because of the projected climate change. Wide variability in rainfall has already brought about a significant level of instability in crop production in the certain region of Odisha with considerable effects on the income, expenditure and savings of rural households (Swain and Swain, 2006). Significant impacts of changing rainfall pattern and rising temperature on cereals, pulses and oilseed production in Odisha has observed in the last five decades (Das, 2016). Thus, in the changing climate as predicted it is bound to affect agricultural production and related sectors with concomitant negative implications for sustainable food security (Nelson & Mensbrugghe, 2014). Therefore, a proper understanding of the impacts of climate change on various crops yield is required to withstand adapt the concomitant negative effects of its on agriculture. On the above background, this paper investigates the impacts of climate variables such as rainfall and temperature on the yields of selected crops in Odisha. 2. Brief Review of Literature The effects of climate change are very pervasive and those in low-income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects. Climate impact studies have consistently predicted extensive impacts to the agricultural sector across the globe (Tol, 2009). Climatic changes and increasing climatic variability are likely to aggravate the problems of future food security by exerting pressure on agriculture. Agriculture is one of the sectors that are most likely to be sensitive to the primary effects of climate change, such as changes in growing season, temperature, and precipitation (Torvanger, Twena and Romstad, 2004). Climate change is expected to influence crop and livestock production, hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems (Adams, Hurd, Lenhart, & Leary, 1998). There are evidences that global climatic changes are influencing agriculture through direct and indirect effects on the crops, soils, livestock and pests (Pathak, et al. 2012). The increase in temperature is reducing crop duration and crop
Analytical Study on Impact of Climate Change on India Agriculture
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Climate change is likely to directly impact food production across the globe. This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. The largest known economic impact of climate change is upon agriculture because of the size and sensitivity of the sector. The climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates, moisture availability etc. The consequences of agriculture's contribution to climate change, and of climate change's negative impact on agriculture, are severe which is projected to have a great impact on food production and may threaten the food security and livelihoods and hence, require special agricultural measures to combat with. The present paper focused on the current scenario of agriculture in India and the various implications of climate change on food security and livelihoods.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY: A CASE STUDY OF NALGONDA DISTRICT TELANGANA
International Journal of Research in Management & Social Science, ISSN No: 2322-0899, 2017
The largest known economic impact of climate change is upon agriculture because of the size and sensitivity of the sector. Warming causes the greatest harm to agriculture in developing countries primarily because many farms in the low latitudes already endure climates that are too hot. This paper reviews several studies that measure the size of the impact of warming on farms in Nalgonga District in Telangana State. Even though adaptation will blunt some of the worst predicted outcomes, warming is expected to cause large damages to agriculture in developing countries over the next century. It is a well known fact that the most vulnerable sector to climate change is agriculture and agricultural productivity would be greatly affected by even a slight change in climatic condition. Agriculture is most susceptible to climatic change when compared to other sectors like water resources, forests and other the impact ecosystems. The present study has been undertaken Nalgonda district to analyze the impact of changes in rainfall and temperature on the agricultural productivity at the mandal / district level in this district of Telangana. The analysis included statistical evaluation of rainfall, temperature and other meteorological parameters for a period of ten years.
Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Operations in Dharwad District of Karnataka, India
International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences, 2019
Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Climate change effects agricultural operations in a number of ways, including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes. Concern over the potential effects of longterm climatic change on agriculture has motivated a substantial body of research over the past decade. The present study was conducted in Dharwad districts of Karnataka state during 2016-17. Descriptive research design was followed to assess the effect of climate change on agricultural operations with a sample of 120 respondents selected randomly. The findings inferred that cent percent respondents noticed negative impacts with regard to crops grown, insect pest infestation and overall health of the crop, negative impacts (97.50%) as expressed by almost all the respondents about time of application of chemical fertilizer, intercultural operation and pesticide use. Among the remaining practices, more than 90 per cent of the respondents mentioned negative impact for 8 practices such as Disease infestation (96.97%), cropping pattern (96.67%), grain yield quantity (95.83%), Harvesting (93.33%), Grain yield quality (92.50%), sowing time (91.67%), Straw yield obtained (91.67%) and intensity of weeds (90.00%). It was also found that majority of the respondents (86.67 %) observed negative impacts for soil fertility and use of chemical fertilizer, no effect of seed rate (86.67%), seed treatment (83.33%), spacing (80.00%) and FYM application (73.33%).
Impact of climate change on agriculture: An Indian perspective
India is the seventh largest country of the world. In India temperature will increase 3oC to 6oC and rainfall will increase 15-30% in 21 Centaury. While the global surface temperature is projected to increase by 1-4oC from 2100 for low emission scenario and 2.5-5.8oC for higher emission scenario in the atmosphere. This Paper has been prepared with the objects of provide key information on the impacts of climate on Indian agriculture. The greenhouses gas emissions increases day by day in the atmosphere from the many sources such as industrial sources crop production and fossil fuel combustion. These are the major sources for the climate change. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. Currently Available general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the area-averaged annual mean warming would be about 3°C in the decade of the 2050s and about 5°C in the decade of the 2080s over the land regions of Asia as a result of future increases in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In Rajasthan, a 2°C rise in temperature was estimated to reduce production of pearl millet by 10-15 per cent (Y S Ramakrishna et al.,). The state of Madhya Pradesh, where soybean is grown on 77 per cent of all agricultural land, could dubiously benefit from an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.