Refining prognosis after trans-arterial chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma (original) (raw)
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Proposal of a new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis of 403 patients
Gut, 2005
Background: The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly dependent on tumour extension and liver function. Recently, two new prognostic scoring systems-the CLIP score, developed by Italian investigators and the BCLC score, developed in Barcelona-have been widely used to assess prognosis in patients presenting with hepatocellular carcinoma. Each system has its own relative limitations. Aims: To create a new prognostic scoring system which is simple, easy to calculate, and suitable for estimating prognosis during radical treatment of early HCC. Methods: A total of 403 consecutive patients with HCC treated by percutaneous ablation at the Department of Gastroenterology, University of Tokyo Hospital, between 1990 and 1997 were used as the training sample to identify prognostic factors for our patients and used to develop the Tokyo score. As a testing sample, 203 independent patients who underwent hepatectomy at the Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery were studied. Prognostic factors were analysed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: The Tokyo score consists of four factors: serum albumin, bilirubin, and size and number of tumours. Five year survival was 78.7%, 62.1%, 40.0%, 27.7%, and 14.3% for Tokyo scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4-6, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the Tokyo score was internally validated by bootstrap methods. The Tokyo score, CLIP score, and BCLC staging were compared by Akaike information criterion and Harrell's c index among training and testing samples. In the testing sample, the predictive ability of the Tokyo score was equal to CLIP and better than BCLC staging. Conclusions: The Tokyo score is a simple system which provides good prediction of prognosis for Japanese patients with HCC requiring radical therapy.
Oncotarget, 2016
The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is variable, despite a myriad of prognostic markers. We compared and integrated the established prognostic models, HAP and ART scores, for their accuracy of overall survival (OS) prediction. In both training and validation sets, HAP and ART scores emerged as independent predictors of OS (p<0.01) with HAP achieving better prognostic accuracy (c-index: 0.68) over ART (0.57). We tested both scores in combination to evaluate their combined ability to predict OS. Subgroup analysis of BCLC-C patients revealed favorable HAP stage (p<0.001) and radiological response after initial TACE (p<0.001) as positive prognostic factors. Prognostic scores were studied using multivariable Cox regression and c-index analysis in 83 subjects with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) A/B stage from UK and Italy (training set), and 660 from Korea and Japan (validation set), all treated wit...
Liver Cancer
Introduction: The prognosis of patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is extremely variable, and a confounding factor is that TACE is often repeated several times. We retrospectively evaluated the accuracy of different prognostic scores and staging systems in estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: An analysis considering prognostic models as time-varying variables was performed, calculating OS from the time of TACE to the time of the subsequent treatment. Total follow-up time for each patient was therefore split into several observation times accounting for each TACE procedure. Values of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare different systems. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify additional factors predictive of OS. We analyzed 1,610 TACE performed in 1,058 patients recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer database from 2008 through 2...
Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2004
The long-term prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains poor and the prediction of survival is often difficult because of the limited liver function and frequent recurrence of HCC in most patients. Therefore, a prognostic classification of HCC should account for both tumor-related variables and liver function. The value of reported prognostic factors for HCC was assessed and a new prognostic classification was established called the &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39;SLiDe&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39; scoring system (S, stage; Li, liver damage; De, des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) using &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39;stage&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39; and &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39;liver damage&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39; of the recently revised 4th edition of the Japanese staging system edited by the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, and the serum level of des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) in 177 patients with HCC. Univariate analysis identified Child-Pugh stage, liver damage, tumor morphology, portal vein thrombosis, stage, serum level of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), serum level of DCP, and initial treatment as significant prognostic factors. Of these, liver damage, stage, and serum level of DCP remained independent predictive factors of survival after multivariate prognostic analysis using the proportional hazards regression model. Therefore, a new prognostic scoring system (SLiDe scoring system) was derived that assigned a linear score (0/1/2/3) to these three covariates. This SLiDe scoring system was statistically a better model for predicting outcome in the present study population than the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) and the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) scoring systems, as judged by the Akaike Information Criteria. The SLiDe scoring system is useful for the assessment of the prognosis of patients with HCC as long as the Japanese staging system is used, although this uses parameters such as the indocyanine green retention test and DCP, which are not examined routinely in every part of the world. Therefore, the proposed classification should be further validated in other large study populations.
Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma
PLoS medicine, 2016
Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integra...
Proposal of A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma—Tokyo Score
Gastroenterology, 2003
Background: The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly dependent on tumour extension and liver function. Recently, two new prognostic scoring systems-the CLIP score, developed by Italian investigators and the BCLC score, developed in Barcelona-have been widely used to assess prognosis in patients presenting with hepatocellular carcinoma. Each system has its own relative limitations. Aims: To create a new prognostic scoring system which is simple, easy to calculate, and suitable for estimating prognosis during radical treatment of early HCC. Methods: A total of 403 consecutive patients with HCC treated by percutaneous ablation at the Department of Gastroenterology, University of Tokyo Hospital, between 1990 and 1997 were used as the training sample to identify prognostic factors for our patients and used to develop the Tokyo score. As a testing sample, 203 independent patients who underwent hepatectomy at the Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery were studied. Prognostic factors were analysed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: The Tokyo score consists of four factors: serum albumin, bilirubin, and size and number of tumours. Five year survival was 78.7%, 62.1%, 40.0%, 27.7%, and 14.3% for Tokyo scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4-6, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the Tokyo score was internally validated by bootstrap methods. The Tokyo score, CLIP score, and BCLC staging were compared by Akaike information criterion and Harrell's c index among training and testing samples. In the testing sample, the predictive ability of the Tokyo score was equal to CLIP and better than BCLC staging. Conclusions: The Tokyo score is a simple system which provides good prediction of prognosis for Japanese patients with HCC requiring radical therapy.
BMC Cancer, 2009
Background: Surgical resection is one important curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the prognosis following surgery differs substantially and such large variation is mainly unexplained. A review of the literature yields a number of clinicopathologic parameters associated with HCC prognosis. However, the results are not consistent due to lack of systemic approach to establish a prediction model incorporating all these parameters.