Working Paper Series Fertility Response to Climate Shocks (original) (raw)
Related papers
Fertility After the Drought: Theory and Evidence from Madagascar
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climatic shocks such as droughts can lower the opportunity cost of having children, and raise fertility. Using longitudinal household data from Madagascar, we estimate the causal effect of drought occurrences on fertility, and explore the nature of potential mechanisms driving this effect. We exploit exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits, and find that droughts occurring during the agricultural season significantly increase the number of children born to women living in agrarian communities. This effect is long lasting, as it is not reversed within four years following the drought occurrence. Analyzing the mechanism, we find that droughts have no effect on common underlying factors of high fertility such as marriage timing and child mortality. Furthermore, droughts have no effect on fertility if they occur during the non-agricultural season or in non-agrarian communities, and their positive effect in agrarian communities is mitigated by irrigation. These findings provide evidence that a low opportunity cost of having children is the main channel driving the fertility effect of drought in agrarian communities.
Climate Shocks and Teenage Fertility
2020
In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climatic shocks can lower the marginal cost of a child and raise fertility. We test this hypothesis using longitudinal data from Madagascar. Exploiting exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits in combination with individual fixed effects, we find that drought occurring in the agricultural season increases the fertility of young women living in agricultural households. This effect is long-lasting, as it is not reversed within four years after the drought occurrence. Analyzing mechanisms, we find that drought does not affect common factors of high fertility such as marriage timing. It operates mainly through a reduction of female agricultural income. Indeed, agricultural drought reduces the number of hours worked by women in agriculture but not men. It has no effect on the fertility of young women living in non-agricultural households, or in non-agrarian ...
Climate Change, Fertility and Sahelian Demographics
Journal of Sustainable Development
Climate change, especially in Africa’s central Sahel region, is occurring in the context of exponential population rise with countries like Chad and Niger still in the “early expanding phase” of demographic growth. While many experts predict a mid-century climate and demographic ‘mega crisis’ for the region; our paper looks at the effect of the rising temperature, through the medium of increased temperature and precipitation variability upon fertility and hence demographic trends as we advance into the 21st century. The paper uses climate data and DHS (Demographic and Health Survey) data from Chad, which has demonstrated significant warming since the late 1960’s. We create a weather shock variable that is defined as a t>2 departure from the post-1960 mean of temperature and precipitation by month, year, and GIS location. We regress the following years’ human fertility outcomes by month and GIS location upon these shocks when occurring in the growing months of June, July, and Augu...
The Impacts of Climate Shocks on Child Mortality in Mali
2013
The global child mortality rate has dropped significantly in the last two decades with Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the fastest decline. However, Mali seems to be an exception, with a barely noticeable annual reduction rate of 1.8% between 1990 and 2011. We hypothesize that an increase in the number of climate shocks are partially responsible for the slow decline of child mortality in Mali. Using unique household survey panel data between 1994 and 2010 and daily climate measures from National Climate Data Center, we analyze the impact of climate shocks on child mortality in Sikasso, Mali. Applying survival analysis, we find significant effects of rain shocks on child mortality. Furthermore, higher numbers of women in the household and proximity to health facilities have a positive effect on child survival. When faced with an increased number of climate shocks, better infrastructure and healthcare facilities in the most affected regions may be able to mitigate the risk of child de...
The impact of climate change on fertility*
Environmental Research Letters, 2019
The impact of climate change on fertility * To cite this article: Gregory Casey et al 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 054007 View the article online for updates and enhancements. Recent citations Vikas Kaushal-Climate impacts on nutrition and labor supply disentangled-an analysis for rural areas of Uganda Chiara Antonelli et al
THE IMPACT OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IN RURAL MALAWI
This thesis uses Malawi's Third Integrated Household Survey 2010 -2011 combined with improved rainfall estimates from a 30-year time series to create an objectively measured drought index. I first estimate the impact of this severe negative rainfall shock, defined as precipitation levels during the reference season of interest more than twenty percent less than the long-run median, on numerous indicators of agricultural production and household welfare. I then examine the extent to which households are able to mitigate the impact of a negative rainfall shock through a variety of plot and household-level characteristics. Findings reveal that households experiencing a severe negative rainfall shock during the wettest quarter of the
Fertility Response to Climate Shocks
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Études et Documents is a working papers series. Working Papers are not refereed, they constitute research in progress. Responsibility for the contents and opinions expressed in the working papers rests solely with the authors. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should be addressed to the authors.
Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall
How sensitive is long-run individual well-being to environmental conditions early in life? This paper examines the effect of weather conditions around the time of birth on the health, education, and socioeconomic outcomes of Indonesian adults born between 1953 and 1974. We link historical rainfall for each individual's birth-year and birth-location with current adult outcomes from the 2000 wave of the Indonesia Family Life Survey. Higher early-life rainfall has large positive effects on the adult outcomes of women, but not of men. Women with 20% higher rainfall (relative to normal local rainfall) in their year and location of birth are 3.8 percentage points less likely to self-report poor or very poor health, attain 0.57 centimeters greater height, complete 0.22 more grades of schooling, and live in households that score 0.12 standard deviations higher on an asset index. These patterns most plausibly reflect a positive impact of rainfall on agricultural output, leading to higher household incomes and food availability and better health for infant girls. We present suggestive evidence that eventual benefits for adult women's socioeconomic status are most strongly mediated by improved schooling attainment, which in turn improves socioeconomic status in adulthood.
2019
Child abandonment is a relevant phenomenon all over the world, and it is more so in developing countries, where it is made worse by income conditions in rural households. At the same time shocks related to climate change are increasingly hitting several countries, generating a reduction in agricultural output and, as a result, increasing difficulties in feeding and growing children in rural areas. The aim of this paper is to move a first step in the investigation of the role played by climate change in driving rural households’ critical decisions, with a specific attention to child abandonment. To this end, we first investigate the determinants of child abandonment and then its impact on households’ welfare. Following the Wooldridge (2002) approach, we estimate pooled selection model and pooled OLS using the Mundlak (1978) device. By adopting Uganda as a relevant case study, the analysis is developed using longitudinal data on Ugandan rural households for the waves 2009-10, 2010-11,...