Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions (original) (raw)
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Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Predicting the distribution of Invasive alien species (IAS) using species distribution models is promising for conservation planning. To achieve accurate predictions, it is essential to explore species niche dynamics. New approaches are necessary for bringing this analysis to real conservation management needs. Using multi-site comparisons can provide great useful insights to better understand invasion processes. Exploring the fine-scale niche overlap between IAS and native species sharing a location can be a key tool for achieving the implementation of local species conservation actions, which can play a fundamental role in the global management of IAS. This can also increase society’s awareness of the threat of IAS. In this context, here, we explored two key research demands. First, we studied the large-scale niche dynamics of the invasive species Paraserianthes lophantha (Willd.) I.C. Nielsen’s considering different invaded areas. The analysis compared niches of the native range ...
Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as both suitable for rare native species and highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated with similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions.
Environmental Conservation
Conservation managers and policy makers require models that can rank the impacts of multiple, interacting threats on biodiversity so that actions can be prioritized. An integrated modelling framework was used to predict the viability of plant populations for five species in southern California's Mediterranean-type ecosystem. The framework integrates forecasts of land-use change from an urban growth model with projections of future climatically-suitable habitat from climate and species distribution models, which are linked to a stochastic population model. The population model incorporates the effects of disturbance regimes and management actions on population viability. This framework: (1) ranks threats by their relative and cumulative impacts on population viability, such as land-use change, climate change, altered disturbance regimes or invasive species, and (2) ranks management responses in terms of their effectiveness for land protection, assisted dispersal, fire management ...