A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change (original) (raw)
2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Significance Jordan is facing an unfolding water crisis, exacerbated by climate change and conflict-induced refugee influxes. We present a freshwater security analysis for the country, enabled by an integrated systems model that combines simulation of Jordan’s natural and built water environment with thousands of representative human agents determining water allocation and use decisions. Our analysis points to severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in Jordan’s freshwater security. Without intervening measures, over 90% of Jordan’s low-income population will be experiencing critical water insecurity by the end of the century. To gain a foothold on its water future, Jordan must enact an ambitious portfolio of interventions that span supply- and demand-side measures, including large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water-sector reform.
Related papers
Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach
1995
Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources, and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional water supplies, while financial and water a...
Community based adaptation options for climate change impacts on water resources: The case of Jordan
Journal of Water and Land Development, 2015
A strategic vision to ensure an adequate, safe and secure drinking water supply presents a challenge, particularly for such a small country as Jordan, faced with a critical supply-demand imbalance and a high risk of water quality deterioration. In order to provide sustainable and equitable long-term water management plans for the future, current and future demands, along with available adaptation options should be assessed through community engagement. An analysis of available water resources, existing demands and use per sector served to assess the nation’s historic water status. Taking into account the effect of both population growth and rainfall reduction, future per sector demands were predicted by linear temporal trend analysis. Water sector vulnerability and adaptation options were assessed by engaging thirty five stakeholders. A set of weighed-criterions were selected, adopted, modified, and then framed into comprehensive guidelines. A quantitative ratio-level approach was u...
Loading Preview
Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.