Fertility trends in Russia and the European newly independent states: crises or turning point? (original) (raw)

In the paper the analysis of latest fertility trends in the context of long-term population development is limited to six countries of the former Soviet Union: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Current developments and forecasts for the fertility of the Russian Federation are discussed in more detail. Three Baltic and three Slavic countries together cover the most of the territory of the European part of the former Soviet Union. At the end of the Soviet era their demographic trends have differed in many respects; however, concerning the stage of population development the countries referred to are closer to each other than with the former Soviet republics in Central Asia, or Transcaucasia as well as Moldova. There is every reason to suggest that it is not simply a demographic crisis, as frequently thought by many observers that is affecting Russia and its neighbours in Eastern Europe. In my view, this large region has entered the period of long-term fundamental changes which started in the West 20-'30 years earlier and are still going on. These changes can be defined as either a "second demographic transition", or a "new stage in demographic modernization" of the society, or "westernization" of demdgraphic behaviour, this depending on an individual's point of view or one's beliefs with regard to the given processes.

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