Application of a new economic analysis tool to a two-stage-to-orbit RBCC launch vehicle design (original) (raw)

Cost Comparison of Expendable, Hybrid, and Reusable Launch Vehicles

Space 2006, 2006

This study compares the developmental, production, and maintenance costs (DPM) of two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) expendable (ELV), hybrid (HLV), and reusable (RLV) launch systems. This comparison was accomplished using top level mass and cost estimating relations (MERs, CERs). Mass estimating relationships were correlated to existing launch system data and ongoing launch system studies. Cost estimating relations were derived from Dr. Dietrich Koelle's "Handbook of Cost Engineering for Space Transportation Systems". Hybrid launch vehicles appear to be preferable if current or modest increases in launch rates are projected while reusable launch vehicles appear preferable for large projected increases in launch rates. v Acknowledgments I would like to thank everyone who made it possible for me to complete this graduate thesis. First, I would like to convey gratitude to Dr. Milton Franke, my graduate advisor, for guiding me through the thesis process. His teachings in Rocket Propulsion were instrumental in completing this project. Secondly, I would like to offer thanks to John Livingston from ASC/XREC. His mentoring and expertise in rocket design made it possible for me to get started, let alone complete my research. I would also like to thank the rest of the individuals who assisted me during my research. They include, Mike

Economic feasibility of modifications to the design of transport aircraft

INCAS BULLETIN, 2021

The relevance of the subject matter is conditioned by the need to fully justify the implementation of modifications to the structures of transport aircraft from an economic standpoint, in order to save money during their construction and improve the functioning of the system for planning further design developments in this line. The purpose of this study is to establish a coherent model of the economic feasibility of aircraft modifications, which allows effectively solving the issues of cost savings in their design and subsequent launch into mass production and operation. The leading approach in this study is a combination of analytical research of the issues of transport aircraft modification with empirical research of the economic feasibility of such measures, in the context of creating a coherent concept of the need for a set of measures to improve the structure of air transport. The findings indicate the presence of a clear relationship between a wide range of parameters that de...

Space Transportation Operations Cost Modeling and the Architectural Assessment Tool-Enhanced

International Astronautical Congress, Amsterdam, 1999

This paper presents an approach to space transportation operations cost modeling which synergistically combines knowledge capture with data. The functioning model derived from this approach will be described. As with any model, the goal is to gain insights into systems which do not yet exist, in this case advanced reusable launch vehicle (RLV) concepts. These insights include the interaction of a launch vehicle with its ground infrastructure, hereafter referred to as the spaceport. These interactions include the need, or not, for multiple facilities and ground support equipment (GSE), costs resulting from acquiring facilities and GSE, time cycles and costs resulting from flight vehicle design and operational decisions, and costs per pound for a resulting flight rate. These interactions also include the variation of all these factors when a concept strives to meet a desired demand, or yearly space-lift requirement. The significance of this approach to space transportation cost modeling, particularly operations, will be shown in relation to the current state of operations cost modeling. Further, the potential use of such an approach in multitudes of decision making opportunities today, ranging from technology investment to business decisions, will be outlined. A work in progress for the extension of this approach to a broad range of space transportation systems will also be described. The latter is called the Vision Spaceport project. Further, work in the application of this model to both near and far term studies will be reviewed. In the near term, NASA has recently completed a Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) for 1999. This study had as it’s objectives determining: (1) should the Space Shuttle system be replaced, (2) if so, when the replacement should take place and how the transition should be implemented, and (3) if not, what is the upgrade strategy to continue safe and affordable flights of the Space Shuttle. The use of the model and approach presented here, applied in support of this study, will be summarized for this sample set of cases. In the far term, the application of this tool to the Space Solar Power (SSP) study will also be summarized. The SSP study has, as one of its objectives, a definition of Earth-to-Orbit concepts that are capable of meeting the economic challenges of the broader SSP project. This includes defining concepts capable of hundreds of flights per year per vehicle, at costs in the range of 100’s of dollars per kilogram. The types of concepts derived and the characteristics of these, as well as implications for spaceport development, and overall flight and ground technology development will be briefly summarized.

The importance of coupling aerodynamic and cost analysis in aircraft design

CEAS Aeronautical Journal, 2022

Companies are increasingly required to improve their quality, flexibility and innovation while maintaining or reducing their costs. However, engineering and finance are often handled by different staff groups at different times in the manufacturing process, and by uncoupling engineering and finance, a company runs the risk of overlooking important interactions between the two. A design system that performs engineering and financial analysis simultaneously may, therefore, improve upon the efficiency and effectiveness of the traditional methods, as the existing practice of designing aircraft from a technical perspective without simultaneously considering the impact on overall program value is not optimal in a business sense. A coupled performance/financial framework enables an integrated approach to technical design and programmatic decisions. This work thus seeks to couple aero performance and financial design. Specifically, a multi-objective trade study is conducted to see the impact on the direct operating cost (DOC) and manufacturing cost of parametrically varying aircraft wing thickness to chord ratio along the wing span. While the present process is only partially automated, the purpose is to establish a useful foundation for further developments and to gain insight into the interactions between technical and program design.

Economic Model of Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles

2000

It is generally assumed by the community that reusable launch vehicles will dramatically reduce launch costs because you don’t “throw away the vehicle” every time it is used. However, this is usually taken as an element of faith, without any substantive analysis to support the conclusion. The example of the Space Shuttle, originally sold to Congress on the basis of dramatically cutting launch costs, suggests that this conclusion might not be accurate under realistic conditions of development and operations. This paper presents an economic model of the cost per launch and cost per pound of both expendable and reusable launch vehicles. The model is presented so as to facilitate comparison between the two approaches and each cost element is discussed in terms of the impact of reusability or discard of vehicles or components. Specific numerical examples are provided. However, the model is given in a fully analytic form as well so that others can work with values of their choosing or exp...

Aircraft Cost Modelling, Integrated in a Multidisciplinary Design Context

Engineering and Applied Sciences

Most of the current cost models focus on a particular manufacturing process or a specific maintenance aspect, therefore not providing the whole picture. The main challenge in modelling the manufacturing cost, associated to a new aircraft at the initial design stage, is to examine all the cost features and the way to link them into the decision making process. It is important to understand the cost related to different competing designs, and this can be tackled by including cost estimation in the design process. Estimating the cost at the early design stage is paramount to reduce the life cycle cost of the aircraft. This paper presents the development of a new methodology for the generation of a cost estimation approach for preliminary aircraft design in a multidisciplinary environment. The framework is able to capture the design attributes that drive the cost allowing a designer to assess cost changes with respect to different design configurations. The cost model is built in Excel using a Visual Basic interface and it is integrated within Model Centre platform, where it can be treated as a component of a computational design process. The paper concludes by presenting the results from a real wing trade-off study that includes all the components of a complete design system.

Tradeoffs in Design-to-Budget Projects

2012

This paper aims at investigating a method to cope with tradeoffs in Design-to-Budget projects. It focuses only on mission operations and does not consider aspects related to spacecraft design, launcher or insurance.

Space Transportation Systems Life Cycle Cost Assessment and Control

44th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference, 2008

Civil and mifitary applications of space transportation have been pursued for just over 50 years and there has been, and still is, a need for safe, dependable, affordable, and sustainable space transportation systems. Fully expendable and partially reusable space transportation systems have been developed and put in operation that have not adequately achieved this need. Access to space is technically achievable, but presently very expensive and wifi remain so until there is a breakthrough in the way we do business. Since 1991 the national Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) has reviewed and assessed the lessons learned from the major U.S. space programs of the past decades focusing on what has been learned from the assessment and control of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) from these systems. This paper presents the results of a selected number of studies and analyses that have been conducted by the SPST addressing the need, as well as the solutions, for improvement in LCC. The major emphasis of the SPST processes is on developing the space transportation system requirements first (up front). These requirements must include both the usual system flight performance requirements and also the system functional requirements, including the infrastructure on Earth's surface, in-space and on the Moon and Mars surfaces to deteinii ie LCC. This paper describes the development of specific innovative engineering and management approaches and processes. This includes a focus on flight hardware maturity for reliability, ground operations approaches, and business processes between contractor and government organizations. A major change in program/project cost control is being proposed by the SPST to achieve a sustainable space transportation system LCC-controlling cost as a program metric in addition to the existing practice of controlling performance and weight. Without a firm requirement and methodically structured cost control, it is unlikely that an affordable and sustainable space transportation system LCC will ever be achieved.